Traders Toolbox: Spread It On

Spreads sometimes are touted as a no- or low-risk trading option, ideally suited to smaller or more risk-averse traders. Although some do have limited risk in certain circumstances, spreads are by no means risk free, and in fact they contain some unique risks, especially for traders who don't have a clear understanding of the limitations and possibilities of these transactions.

In options markets, the term spreads covers everything from simple time spreads to complex butterflies, boxes and conversions. Although futures spreads are, at least on the surface, more straightforward than many of their options counterparts, understand the basic price relationship between different futures contracts as well as the function off spread trading is integral to a well-informed market perspective.

In the most basic sense, a spread refers to the price difference between two or more trading instruments, whether they are two contact months of the same commodity, two different commodities or the cash and futures price of a particular commodity. (The cash/futures spread is commonly called basis.)

When putting on a spread, a trader establishes a long position in one month or contract while simultaneously establishing a short position in another month or contract. For example, a trader might buy September bonds and sell June bonds, or buy October cattle and sell October hogs. In putting on a spread, the trader seeks to profit from an increase or decrease in the price difference between the two contracts (legs) of the spread, rather than outright price movement of the commodities involved.

Spread orders commonly are placed and executed at the price difference (differential) rather than at the

individual prices of each leg. An exception may occur when a trader deliberately buys or sells one leg of the spread outright, and then waits to complete the other half of the spread, usually to secure a better spread differential. This process, called legging, can be very risky.

When buying the spread, the trader expects the spread differential to increase; when selling, he expects it to decrease.

Reduction - Spreads can reduce risk and offer expanded trading opportunities for two main reasons. First, because a spread contains both a long and short position in the same or related contracts, losses on one leg of the spread are countered by gains on the other. This will limit profit as well, but for many traders, this is an acceptable compromise. Second, by virtue of this reduce risk, some spreads also will have the added advantage of lower margins, often significantly lower than the margin an an outright positions. This offers

the options of putting on a greater number of spread positions, but will, of course, increase exposure.

Two questions naturally arise about spreads: Why do price differences occur, and how do traders profit on spreads if losses are offset by gains in different legs?

Spreads occur between different months of the same contract for a variety of reasons. For many agricultural contract, the cost of storing and insuring the physical commodity from month to month (referred to as carrying cost) is incorporated into the price of the back months in relation to the nearby month or the cash price, and will account for at least a minimum price difference between two contracts.

Changes in the supply and demand picture from month to month, as well as basic uncertainty about the future, will contribute to a fluctuating spread. Seasonal differences, such as the change from an old crop year to a new one, also influence the spread. For financial contracts, changing interest rates, the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates, and currency rates also will affect the value of contracts form moth to month and account for a widening or shrinking of the spread. The same commodities on different exchanges can differ for locally specific economic reasons, like the varying transportation and carrying costs in the different markets.

Intense market volatility and confusion, such as often occurs during rollover periods (when the front month of a commodity is nearing expiration and many positions are reestablished in the next nearby month), also will create spread opportunities. Traders commonly will put on spreads to roll positions into the next month, A long June S&P could be rolled over by selling the June - September spread, that is, selling the June contract and buying the September. In every market, speculators and hedgers will have a fundamental knowledge of the factors affecting the spread, and will sense when prices are out of line.

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Trader Toolbox: Learning Options Part 1 of 5

Options on futures have come of age. In fact, at some exchanges, options trading outstrips growth in futures trading by a 2:1 margin. But this growth has a major flaw: Many people use options for the wrong reasons. Sound options trading begins with understanding basic concepts and dispelling common misconceptions about he potential benefits and limitations of these instruments.

The Basics - An option contract gives you the right to buy or sell something at a set price for a limited amount of time or at a specific future date. Options are common in many businesses, such as real estate, where an investor might purchase an option that will give him the right to buy a parcel of land at an agreed upon price for a six-month period, regardless of fluctuations in the market price of the land.

Options on futures are no different. A trader can buy an option in June allowing him to buy December T-bond futures at 100.00, even if the market price in December is 105,00. The buyer pays a price for this opportunity, called the premium. The option buyer is sometimes called the writer.

There are two kinds of options: calls and puts. A call option gives the owner the right to buy futures at a specific price; a put option gives the owner the right to sell futures at the specific price. This predetermined price is called the exercise price, or strike price. A call option owner who "exercises" his right becomes long futures, while an option seller is "assigned" a short futures position. When a trader sells an option, he risks having a losing futures position at any time. In return for assuming this risk, he receives the option premium.

The owner, on the other hand, is under no obligation to exercise, and may sell the option or hold it through the term of the agreement. The last day a buyer can exercise an option is called the expiration date, which is established by the exchange. For example, the owner of a March 445 S&P call call buy March S&P futures at 445.00 until March 17, if he so chooses. The option expires at the end of trading on this day.

Most listed options in the United States are American style options, which allow the holder to exercise any time up through expiration day. European style options can be exercised on expiration day only.

Ins and Outs - The strike price of an option can be described three ways:

In-The-Money refers to calls with strikes prices below the current market price of the underlying future and puts with strike prices above the market price. If coffee futures are trading at 195.00. a 194.00 call is in-the-money, as is a 196.00 put.

At-The-Money options are calls and puts with strike prices equal to the current futures price. If coffee is 197.00, both 197.00 coffee calls and puts are at-the-money.

Out-Of-The-Money refers to calls with strike prices above the current futures price, and puts with strike prices below the future price. With coffee at 194.00, a 195.00 call and a 193.00 put would both be out-of-the-money.

With March bonds at 100.22, the owner of a March 98.00 call could exercise his option, become long bond futures at 98.00, sell the futures at 98.00, sell the futures and make 2.22. If the trader paid less than 2.22 for the opions, he would make a profit on the trade.

Because option buyers are not required to exercise, their market exposure is limited to the premium paid for the option. For sellers, however, risk is equivalent to an outright futures contract, because they can be assigned a futures position at any time.

Traders Toolbox: Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD)

MarketClub is known for our "Trade Triangle" technology. However, if you have used other technical analysis indicators previously, you can use a combination of the studies and other techniques in conjunction with the "Trade Triangles" to further confirm trends.

Developed by Gerald Appel, this indicator consists of two lines: a solid line called the MACD line and a solid line called the signal line. The MACD line consists of two exponential moving averages, while the signal line is composed of the MACD line smoothed by another exponential moving average.

To complete the standard calculation of the two lines, you must:

  1. Calculate a 12-period exponential moving average of closing prices
  2. Calculate a 26-period exponential moving average of closing prices
  3. Plot the difference between the two calculations above as a solid line. This is your MACD line.
  4. Calculate a nine-period exponential moving average of the MACD line and plot these results as a dashed line. This is your signal line.

MarketClub will do the above calculations for you. The MACD line is represented by a red solid line and the Signal line is represented by a green solid line. The default values for this study are set to the suggest values listed above.

The most useful signals generated from this system occur when the solid red (MACD) line crosses below the green solid line (Signal) and a sell signal occurs when it crosses above the signal line.

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You can learn more about the MACD and Gerald Appel by visiting INO TV.

Traders Toolbox: Elliott Wave Theory

MarketClub is known for our “Trade Triangle” technology. However, if you have used other technical analysis indicators previously, you can use a combination of the studies and other techniques in conjunction with the “Trade Triangles” to further confirm trends.

Elliott Wave Theory categorizes price movement in terms of predictable waves. Beginning in the late 1920s, R.N. Elliott developed his own concept of price waves and their predictive qualities. In Elliott theory, waves moving with the trend are called impulse waves, while waves moving against it are called corrective waves.

Impulse saves are broken down into five primary price movements, while correction waves are broken down into three. An impulse wave is always followed by a correction wave, so any complete wave cycle will contain eight distinct price movements. Breaking down the primary waves of the impulse/correction wave cycle into subwaves produces a wave count of 34 (21 from the impulse wave plus 13 from teh correction wave), producting more Fibonacci numbers.

Elliott analysis can be applied to time frames as short as 15 minutes or as long as decades, with smaller waves functioning as subwaves of larger waves, which are in turn subwaves of still larger formations. By analyzing price charts and maintaining wave counts, you can determine price objectives and reversal points.

A key element of Elliott analysis is defining the wave context you are in: Are you presently in an impulse wave uptrend, or is it just eh correction wave of a larger downtrend? The larger the time frame you analyze, the larger the trend or wave you find yourself in. Because waves are almost never straightforward, but are instead composed of numerous subwaves and minor aberrations, clearly defining waves (especially correction waves) is as much an art as any other kind of chart analysis.

Fibonacci ratios play a conspicuous role in establishing price objectives in Elliott theory. In an impulse wave, the three principal waves moving in the direction of a trend are separated by two smaller waves moving against the trend. Elliotticians often forecast the tops or bottoms of the upcoming waves by multiplying previous waves by a Fibonacci ratio. For example, to estimate a price objective for wave III, multiply wave I by the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 and add it to the bottom of wave II for a price target. Fibonacci numbers are also evident in the time it takes for price patterns to develop and cycles to complete.

Traders Toolbox: Williams %R

MarketClub is known for our "Trade Triangle" technology. However, if you have used other technical analysis indicators previously, you can use a combination of the studies and other techniques in conjunction with the "Trade Triangles" to further confirm trends.

Williams' %R oscillator, attributed to Larry Williams, is a variation of the stochastics indicator previously discussed. Because the two oscillators are essentially the same, only minor modifications to the formula are required. The formula for calculating %R is: %R = Hn – C / Hn – Ln where Hn = highest high of the period, C = Close of the current period and Ln = lowest low of the period.

The %R oscillator differs from the %K formula in the stochastics indicator because the outcome of each formula is inverse to the other. In other words, %K compares the close with the lowest low, whereas %R compares the close with the highest high. Similar to other oscillators, %R is plotted with horizontal zones of 20% and 80%. When the indicator has a reading of -80% or below it signifies an oversold condition. Similarly, a reading of -20% or above signals an overbought condition.

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You can learn more about the Williams %R and Larry Williams by visiting INO TV.