Tag: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Saudi Arabia's "Mini Oil Embargo" May Backfire

Posted on by Robert Boslego

On October 20, 1973, Saudi King Faisal announced KSA was joining in an oil embargo against the United States and Europe in favor of the Arab position in the Yom Kippur War. In an interview with international media, King Faisal said:

“America's complete Israeli support against the Arabs makes it extremely difficult for us to continue to supply the United States with oil, or even remain friends with the United States."

The price of oil quadrupled in short order, a few months. The oil shortage in America was managed by gasoline rationing by President Nixon. Drivers could buy gasoline on “odd” or “even” days, depending on the last digit of their license plate. There was also a maximum dollar amount set on purchases of $10. Motorists often had to wait in line for an hour to buy gas.

The economic impact on the U.S. and the world economy was devasting. It caused a massive recession in 1974-75, even though the embargo was lifted in March 1974. The Saudis and other OPEC producers learned how “inelastic” (i.e., non-responsive to price) gasoline demand was and their ability to stuff their coffers even with small cuts to production. Continue reading "Saudi Arabia's "Mini Oil Embargo" May Backfire" →

OPEC's Plan To Institutionalize OPEC+ Has Failed

Posted on by Robert Boslego

For over a year, OPEC General Secretary Mohammed Barkindo has been trying to "institutionalize" the OPEC+ arrangement that includes Russia. At the Oil and Money conference in October 2017 in London, Barkindo told reporters. "This platform of 24 countries, now hopefully growing, should be institutionalized."

OPEC+
Source: OPEC

In September, he said, "What we are working on now is to make it [cooperation] more permanent and institutionalize the framework. Our target is to have a longer cooperation framework in place by December when we reconvene in Vienna [for the next OPEC meeting]."

In an interview with TASS on October 22nd, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih explained his view for the long-term agreement he wanted in December: Continue reading "OPEC's Plan To Institutionalize OPEC+ Has Failed" →

December OPEC Meeting Preview

Posted on by Robert Boslego

When the OPEC-Non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) convened in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates in mid-November, it reported in a press release:

The Committee reviewed current oil supply and demand fundamentals and noted that 2019 prospects point to higher supply growth than global requirements, taking into account current uncertainties. “The Committee also noted that the dampening of global economic growth prospects, in addition to associated uncertainties, could have repercussions for global oil demand in 2019 – and could lead to widening the gap between supply and demand.”

The figures they were reviewing were later released by OPEC in its November Monthly Oil Market Report. For 2019, they are projecting a decline in the demand for OPEC crude oil of about 1.04 million barrels per day to 31.54 mmbd. OPEC’s October production was estimated at 32.9 mmbd.

saudi energy minister khalid
Continue reading "December OPEC Meeting Preview" →

Saudi Crown Prince Claims Lost Iranian Barrels Will Be Offset

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Back in 1973, Saudi Arabia took a very aggressive move against the U.S. by starting the Arab oil embargo:

Saudi Crown Prince

But the Trump Administration has taken a strong position against Iran, Saudi Arabia’s nemesis. KSA also depends on the U.S. for its protection as well as its economic development. The current relationship between Washington and Riyadh could not be better:

"I love working with him (Trump)." - Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, October 5, 2018

Saudi Crown Prince
Photo Courtesy Of AFP)

Prior to announcing the U.S. pull-out of the Iranian nuclear deal in May, the White House had secured assurances from producers, namely Saudi Arabia, that any disruptions in Iran’s exports would be offset by higher production by countries with spare capacity, according to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. The Saudi energy minister confirmed it. Continue reading "Saudi Crown Prince Claims Lost Iranian Barrels Will Be Offset" →

Oil Price Spike Will Most Likely Be Averted

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Uncertainties for the balance of 2018 imply that stocks could fall sharply or be adequate. As a result, prices may spike or drop into the $50s, depending on what unfolds.

President Trump has sway over Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers. He can also fine-tune the implementation of sanctions on Iran and waivers to them. I’m expecting he will do whatever he has to, to avert a price spike going into the November mid-term elections.

July Production Changes

OPEC estimated in its August Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that its crude production in July averaged 32.323 million barrels per day (mmbd). That was about 40,000 b/d higher than in June. The “compliance” level with the 2016 deal dropped to 97%, the first time less than 100% in nearly a year.

Saudi Arabia’s production was reduced by about 52,000 b/d, but that was more than offset by gains of 79,000 b/d in Kuwait and 69,000 b/d in the UAE.

Iran’s production fell by 56,000 b/d while Venezuela’s output dropped 48,000 b/d. Libya’s output also dropped by 57,000 b/d. Continue reading "Oil Price Spike Will Most Likely Be Averted" →