OPEC and Crude Futures Price Prospects

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


OPEC will hold its 169th Meeting in Vienna on June 2nd. Its tentative program calls for a press conference to be held at 1600 hours. Don’t expect the fireworks that followed its conference 18 months ago when Saudi oil minister al-Naimi declared a market share battle against North American shale producers. In fact, don’t expect much of anything.

A lot has happened since the last OPEC meeting in December. A strong El Niño resulted in record high temperatures in North America during the first half of the winter, undercutting prices. Poorer members, such as Venezuela and Nigeria, implored the group’s richer Gulf state producers to cut back to stop the hemorrhaging. Saudi Arabia refused to budge.

The sanctions against Iran were lifted in early January. Iran proclaimed it would restore lost production of 500,000 to one million barrels per day. Crude prices tumbled further and by mid-January had dropped to the mid-$20s. The market panic was in full-force. Continue reading "OPEC and Crude Futures Price Prospects"

Crude Oil Slips Ahead Of Doha Meeting

Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.K16.E) is falling for the 3rd straight day and is currently trading near session lows. But why the sudden drop you may be asking.

OPEC producers are due to gather in Doha on Sunday, to discuss whether to freeze oil production output at January's levels. Oil is dipping this morning as hopes of a deal between oil producers has faded. Hopes had been that OPEC would agree to freeze output, but it seems that Iran has other plans. Iran has already stated that it won't agree or adhere to a production freeze as it looks to boost its production. Reason being that sanctions on its oil sales were just lifted in January.

As you can imagine the other OPEC producers are desperate to make a deal and to raise the price of oil. After all, low crude prices have cost them billions of dollars so far.

If you take a look at the chart, you can see that the Trade Triangles entered into a sidelines position today. This is based on the red daily Trade Triangle that triggered at $40.09 this morning.

Daily MarketClub Chart of Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.K16.E)

Key Levels To Watch:

1. 38.07 - The 50-day moving average provides the key level of support at 38.07. If this level is breached, oil could drop to $30 a barrel.

2. 35.24 - The weekly Trade Triangle will change to red if oil breaks through this level. This would confirm a move to the downside and further weakness.

3. 42.16 - The daily Trade Triangle will change to green if oil breaks through this level. This would confirm a move to the upside and further strength.

As we head into the weekend, I think that the sidelines positions indicated by the Trade Triangles is the best place to be based on the uncertainty of the outcome of the Doha meeting.

Have a great weekend!

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com