Tag: the gold report

Strategies for Profiting from a Distorted Reality: Investing After QE

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The Gold Report: After months of financial media coverage, investors are suffering from quantitative easing (QE) overload. At this point, what's important for investors to know about QE?

Chris Berry: QE appears to be one of the last arrows in the quiver of central bankers in the U.S., the Eurozone and Japan to try and resuscitate the global economy. Successive rounds of QE have failed to ignite demand, which was the stated purpose. Currently, a great deal of economic data supports a deflationary rather than inflationary view.

The Federal Reserve would love to create inflation, as this is the intended effect of easy money from the QE programs. So far, however, the most prevalent inflation we have is asset price inflation rather than in wage growth. This is not what the Fed wants. We're not seeing the "demand pull" inflation typically found when demand is outpacing supply. The two biggest overhangs in the U.S. economy right now are structurally high unemployment and a cratering velocity of money. Continue reading "Strategies for Profiting from a Distorted Reality: Investing After QE" →

Are Gold Equities on the Cusp of an Upswing?

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The Gold Report: Ron, the Federal Reserve has decided to continue quantitative easing (QE) for the foreseeable future. Gold has risen steadily since that news. Is that what you predicted the Fed would do?

Ron Struthers: It is not that hard to predict the Fed's behavior when you understand what it's trying to do and how it's trying to do it. I do not take what they say literally, except within the context of its goals. The Fed is trying to instill confidence in the economy because of massive U.S. debt and its future debt appetite. The economy needs to improve for there to be higher tax receipts. We need foreign investment to finance the debt. If the Fed can convince Americans and those abroad that its bonds are the safest/most attractive, its stock market will have the best returns and that debt machine keeps running.

But the truth is that the economy is very weak. Employment is weak. Foreign investment has been fleeing. The Fed has to purchase $85 billion of debt a month because nobody else will. The Fed can't do this forever, and it knows it. It has to talk as if the economy is improving so the Fed debt purchases can end in the near future.

If you dig into what's really going on in the economy and markets, you'll find the underlying weakness that guarantees that QE will be here for a long time, as least as long as the markets themselves will allow it or are tricked into allowing it.

TGR: Why are Americans so complicit in this? Continue reading "Are Gold Equities on the Cusp of an Upswing?" →

'Mexico Mike' Kachanovsky Believes the Best Cure for Low Prices Is Low Prices

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The Gold Report: Mike, the prevailing wisdom in the market favors producers over explorers in the precious metals equities. The thinking seems to be why buy the pasture when entire farms are selling at nearly the same price? What do you think of that strategy?

Mike Kachanovsky: That is a good summary of current affairs. Market values for the entire sector have been trimmed dramatically; even many of the highest rated stocks are down 50% to 60%. From a value perspective, it makes sense to buy higher up the food chain when you have the opportunity, to buy more established companies that offer legitimate earnings and established infrastructure.

TGR: Kenneth Hoffman of Bloomberg Research notes that production from the world's biggest gold mines has dropped 17% since early 2011. He predicts that gold mines, especially high-cost mines in Africa, will start to close as gold hovers around $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz). Is there a bullish medium-term case to be made for gold given the shrinking supply?

MK: We have been through similar severe price corrections before. At the beginning of this century, gold's market value was below what it cost to produce it. Mines closed and companies went out of business. That scenario evolved into the bull market we have today and the achievement of all-time high metals prices.

TGR: But this is not a bull market. Continue reading "'Mexico Mike' Kachanovsky Believes the Best Cure for Low Prices Is Low Prices" →

Something's Got to Give in the Precious Metals Market

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The Gold Report: Heiko, in late June gold had its biggest weekly drop in two years. What's your take on that?

Heiko Ihle: It was set off by far-reaching talk of a slowdown in quantitative easing. However, an awful lot of U.S. dollars are still floating around and the price of gold is pegged to the U.S. dollar. In the long run, companies can't sell gold for less than it costs to take it out of the ground. At some point something has to give.

TGR: So, what's going to give?

HI: Either the cost of mining or the price of gold. Quite frankly, the cost of mining has been reasonably sticky thus far.

TGR: Can miners profitably mine gold at $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) and silver sub-$20/oz? Continue reading "Something's Got to Give in the Precious Metals Market" →

Strategies for Success in a Bloody Market

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The Gold Report: John, early this year you predicted that as many as 500 companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange would go under by the end of 2013. Do you stand by that?

John Kaiser: I think at least 500 companies are endangered; I doubt they will disappear by the end of the year. The critical time will be next summer, when their audited financials are due and their annual meetings will be held. If we have not had a turnaround by then, many management teams will hand the keys over to the stock exchange and abandon their companies.

Of the 1,800 companies we follow, 761 as of June 28 have less than $200,000 ($200K) in working capital left. That is the bare minimum needed to merely exist as a publicly listed company.

TGR: Is capital on hand one of the first things that you look at when deciding whether to invest? Continue reading "Strategies for Success in a Bloody Market" →