Tag: The Federal Reserve

A Tale of Two Realities

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


You may not have noticed it, but there is an enormous gulf between what many Americans are being told is happening in the world around us and how the financial markets are reacting – or, more accurately, not reacting – to it. It’s as if there are two completely different realities going on. Which reality you subscribe to will likely dictate your investment choices, including how you feel about which direction the bond market is headed.

In one reality – and it’s the one that gets the most coverage in the general media – is that the world is basically coming to an end. The most powerful nation on earth is being run for the past two weeks or so – although it seems like a lot longer – by an ignoramus who is moving our country and the entire world headlong into disaster. Continue reading "A Tale of Two Realities" →

S&P 500: Prepare For Choppiness

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor


After the S&P 500’s rather flat performance over the first three weeks of January, the Index has finally broken higher, pierced through the 2,280 resistance, and seems well on its way to surge above 2,300. So, the question of potential profit taking for the Index at this time may raise some eyebrows. But if we are to take the signals coming from the Federal Reserve over the past few weeks, this is exactly when we should be worried about profit taking and a jump in volatility for the Index.

While the S&P 500 (CME:SP500) was muddling through over the past few weeks, some attributed it to the protectionist stance of the new US president, e.g. the looming threat of a trade war with China, the risk of import levies and, of course, the latest events of this week. President Trump, in a characteristically dramatic fashion, announced the revocation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and proclaimed his intention to renegotiate NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement. And how did investors respond? By pushing the S&P 500 up and out of its stagnation and into a new high. Because, while investors are concerned about the risk of a protectionist trade policy, their concerns are somewhat soothed by Trump’s plan to slash the US corporate tax to 15% and boost infrastructure spending.

But what about the S&P 500 are the bulls ignoring? Continue reading "S&P 500: Prepare For Choppiness" →

Did The Markets Overreact - Again - To Yellen's Remarks?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


You may not have noticed it, but before last Wednesday the bond market had been in kind of a mini-rally for the previous month. On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.32%, its lowest level since the end of November. That was down from 2.60% in mid-December, which also happened to be its highest mark since 2014.

But by the end of the week the yield on the 10-year had jumped back up to 2.47%, up 15 basis points in just three days. What happened to put the brakes so suddenly on this rally? Why, Janet Yellen spoke, and when Janet Yellen speaks – well, you know the rest.

But did anyone really listen? Continue reading "Did The Markets Overreact - Again - To Yellen's Remarks?" →

So The Fed Raised Rates: Why Is the Market Acting Surprised?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


It never ceases to amaze me how some people still react to and hang on to the words of former authoritative figures long after they’ve ceased to be relevant.

The other day 76-year-old Martin Sheen – Charlie’s father, for those under 40 – led a group of liberal has-beens and C-list “celebrities” urging Republican members of the Electoral College not to authenticate Donald Trump’s election. Does Sheen really believe people still care about what he thinks, if they ever did? Guess so.

While I admit that Janet Yellen and the other members of the Federal Reserve have hardly reached Martin Sheen status as irrelevant, I have to wonder about the market’s reaction to Wednesday’s decision by the Fed to raise interest rates an entire quarter point. Why did anyone care? Continue reading "So The Fed Raised Rates: Why Is the Market Acting Surprised?" →

Fed Paves The Way For Broad Dollar Rally

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The last FOMC meeting for 2016 has concluded, and the outcome is a slightly more hawkish tone than investors initially expected. The Fed has hiked the federal fund’s target rate by 25bps to 0.75% for the second time in two years. However, this hike was largely in line with the consensus expectations.

What caught investors by surprise was the revision of the Fed’s projection for rates in 2017. A revision that demonstrates that the median of estimates by the Federal Reserve members point to not two rate hikes, as in the September meeting, but three. Experience suggests that investors should take the Fed’s revision with a pinch of salt. After all, it was only this year that we witnessed the Federal Reserve revise its rate projections down, a move that followed an increase earlier in the year. And yet, judging by the reaction of Treasuries and the dollar, this revision is taken with some gravity. In fact, it paves the way for another dollar higher. The question is why? Continue reading "Fed Paves The Way For Broad Dollar Rally" →