Tag: The Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Analysis Of US Crude Production

Posted on by Robert Boslego

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. petroleum inventories (excluding SPR) built by 8.8 million barrels last week to 1.461 billion, whereas SPR stocks were unchanged. Total stocks stand 171 mmb above the rising, rolling 5-year average and about 157 mmb higher than a year ago. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 402 mmb above that average.

Total US Oil Stocks

Crude Production

Production averaged 11.1 mmbd last week, up 100,000 b/d from the prior week, and 11.025 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 7.7 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, crude production averaged 12.129 mmbd, up 0.4 % v. last year, about 50,000 barrels per day higher than a year ago.

US Crude Production

Other Supply

I have previously noted how the "Other Supply," primarily natural gas liquids and renewables, are integral to petroleum supply. The EIA reported that it fell by 30,000 b/d v. last week at 6.789 mmbd. The 4-week trend in "Other Supply" averaged 6.958 mmbd, off 0.4 % over the same weeks last year. In YTD, they are 0.7 % higher than in 2019. Continue reading "Analysis Of US Crude Production" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2020

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for July, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dropped by 14 million barrels in June to end at 3.283 billion, 362 million barrels higher than a year ago. It estimates that inventories peaked in May 2020 at 3.297 billion.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 87.59 million barrels per day (mmbd) for June, compared to global oil consumption of 89.47 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 1.87 mmbd or 56 million barrels for the month. However, that is still a small figure compared to the size of the build from February, which was 399 million barrels.

For 2020, OECD inventories are projected to build by 132 million barrels to 3.022 billion. For 2021 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 137 million barrels to end the year at 2.855 billion.

Oil

The EIA forecast was made to incorporate the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2020" →

U.S. Crude Oil Production Fell Sharply In April

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that April crude oil production averaged 12.061 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 669,000 b/d from March. Reductions were largest in Texas (234,000) and North Dakota (195,000).

Crude Oil

Given the large reduction in April, crude oil production dropped by 62,000 b/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply fell by an additional 560,000 b/d from a year ago. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Fell Sharply In April" →

Analysis Of The EIA Statistics

Posted on by Robert Boslego

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. petroleum inventories (excluding SPR) built by 5.9 million barrels last week to 1.451 billion, whereas SPR stocks built by 1.4 million. Total stocks stand 163 mmb above the rising, rolling 5-year average and about 151 mmb higher than a year ago. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 392 mmb above that average.

EIA

Crude Production

Production averaged 11.0 mmbd last week, up 500,000 b/d from the prior week, and 10.950 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 10.6 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, crude production averaged 12.311 mmbd, up 1.7 % v. last year, about 200,000 barrels per day higher than a year ago. Continue reading "Analysis Of The EIA Statistics" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2020

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for June, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed June 2018 at 2.802 billion barrels. It estimated stocks built by 94 million barrels in May to end at 3.358 billion, 442 million barrels higher than a year ago.

For 2020, OECD inventories are projected to build by 243 million barrels to 3.133 billion. For 2021 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 273 million barrels to end the year at 2.860 billion.

Oil

The EIA forecast was made after the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2020" →