Tag: The Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Crude Oil Production Slowed in May

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that May U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.442 million barrels per day (mmbd), off 30,000 b/d from April’s all-time record high of 10.472 mmbd.

However, May’s production was also lower than 10.461 mmbd posted for March. From December through March, production had spiked by 423,000 b/d.

Part of the explanation for the lack of continued growth is the unplanned maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico. Last month, GOM production dropped by 75,000 b/d. In April, it had declined by 99,000 b/d. In EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, May’s GOM production was forecast to increase by 200,000 b/d from April.

Otherwise, increases in North Dakota (25,000 b/d) and in Texas (20,000 b/d) were also relatively modest.

U.S. Crude Oil Production

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 304,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.706 mmbd. EIA’s most recent weekly estimate for the week ending July 27th was 11.0 mmbd. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Slowed in May" →

U.S. Crude Production Growth Stalled In April

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that April crude oil production averaged 10.467 million barrels per day (mmbd), off 2,000 b/d from March’s all-time record high for the U.S. The small but unexpected decline was due to unplanned maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which reduced production there by 98,000 b/d. Otherwise, healthy increases were recorded in North Dakota (61,000 b/d) and Texas + New Mexico (55,000 b/d).

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The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 115,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.582 mmbd. EIA’s most recent weekly estimate for the week ending June 22nd was 10.900 mmbd. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Growth Stalled In April" →

U.S. March Crude Production Shows Large Gain

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - U.S. March Crude Production


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that February crude oil production averaged 10.474 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 215,000 b/d from February, setting a new all-time record for the U.S. The large increase was on top of a 264,000 b/d gain in February.

The largest increases were recorded in Texas (159,000 b/d), New Mexico (38,000 b/d) and Oklahoma (15,000 b/d).

U.S. March Crude Production

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 54,000 b/d higher than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.420 mmbd. EIA’s most recent weekly estimate for the week ending May 25th was 10.769 mmbd. Continue reading "U.S. March Crude Production Shows Large Gain" →

US February Crude Production Shows Big Gain

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - US February Crude Production


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that February crude oil production averaged 10.264 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 260,000 b/d from January, setting a new all-time record for the U.S. The large increase reflected a gain from a level that was constrained by weather issues.

The largest increases were recorded in Texas (106,000 b/d), the Gulf of Mexico (89,000 b/d) and New Mexico (46,000 b/d).

US February Crude Production

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 26,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.290 mmbd. EIA’s most recent weekly estimate for the week ending April 20th was 10.586 mmbd. Continue reading "US February Crude Production Shows Big Gain" →

Updated 2018 Crude Oil Outlook

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - Crude Oil Outlook


Analysis prepared on March 19, 2018

The relative rate of growth in supply v. demand will ultimately determine stock levels and prices. And the three key predicting agencies, the International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and OPEC have different views on what is likely to unfold.

OPEC does not often predict is own production, but in December it forecast it would average 33.2 million barrels per day (mmbd) during 2018. That would far exceed its projected “call on OPEC oil,” which is world demand minus non-OPEC production. For 2018 as a whole, it predicts that figure will be 33.1 mmbd.

That demand for OPEC oil is based on a gain in demand of 1.52 mmbd and a rise in no-OPEC production of 1.15 mmbd. In my view demand is likely to be a bit stronger due to world economic growth. However, the non-OPEC supply number is much too low, given the recent rise in U.S. production of 886,000 b/d from August through November. (December production was down a bit for seasonal reasons.) Furthermore, U.S. production has yet to respond to $60/b. The rise in output last autumn was a response to $50/b.

The EIA has the most aggressive non-OPEC production estimate of a gain of 2.5 mmbd, with 2.0 occurring in the U.S. alone, and the balance in Canada and Brazil. The EIA forecast is based on a gain in crude production of 1.5 mmbd and a rise in other liquids of 500,000 b/d. WTI did not exceed $60 in any month since 2015 until January 2018. And the year-over-year gain in March 2018 is estimated to be 1.29 mmbd. And so the industry’s response to $60/b could very well enable the 1.5 mmbd gain. Continue reading "Updated 2018 Crude Oil Outlook" →