Tag: technical analysis

Gold Could Fly Over A Helicopter Throwing Money

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

On the 16th of March, when I wondered if “That’s It?” for gold it dropped for more than $100 to the low of $1451. It looked like the first move down in the large second leg of a huge complex correction.

As we know, guessing tops and bottoms is a tricky exercise. So, the next move up was considered to be a correction as to confirm the top we should see the passing move down first (checked), then there should be a corrective move in the opposite (upside) direction and the next should be the continuation to the downside. Let’s see below if you thought gold would reverse down.

The majority of you remained bullish as you clicked on the “retest of $1704” and “$1921”. The first bet already paid well as the market retested the former top last Monday. This price move was quite sharp as previously the same distance unfolded by gold within only 82 daily bars from November 2019 till March 2020 compared to only 20 daily bars this time.

It looks like gold doesn’t want to drop as things changed dramatically. Continue reading "Gold Could Fly Over A Helicopter Throwing Money" →

Silver Is A Game Changer

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last month I shared with you “Three Options To Go” for silver price, namely “Optimistic”, “Pessimistic” and the sideways option called “Extended consolidation” on one chart. Below are your bets for each option.

Silver

Most of you chose the “Optimistic” option where silver should continue to the upside after completing the correction. It’s a rare case when the minority was right as the “Pessimistic” scenario played out the next week after the post. The metal’s price dropped into the abyss at $11.64, reaching the 11-year low in the price area of distant January 2009. I think this move surprised not only me, although I said that it could reach $11 area, but even those who clicked the right answer as it was so quick as price sank within a few weeks from $16.66 for 30%!!!

Silver just can’t stop surprising us as it suddenly changes from latency mode to explosion mode and back, again and again.

The interesting thing happened next Continue reading "Silver Is A Game Changer" →

Gold Miners Show The Way

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

[edit] It goes without saying that gold miners and the royalty companies that live off them will be shown to have been impaired like many other companies by the coming Q2 numbers due to shutdowns. An emailer questioned my view on this and it has been one of my personal caution points. Markets should be looking ahead, but during this euphoric sentiment release across broad markets maybe they’re overlooking some things. The other caution point is that a big bullish expression on the heels of the Fed announcement is also a setup for short-term disappointment. So with respect to the daily chart below, maybe Friday’s gap will fill after all. But as noted in the article below “the gold stocks lead and their fundamentals and value proposition will have improved by leaps and bounds as we exit the COVID-19 global lockdown”.

It’s a good Friday because I get to start my weekend work earlier. Many people temporarily have no weekends because they are huddled at home as one day bleeds into the next amid the global pandemic. Monday is Thursday is Saturday. Good Friday is Halloween is Festivus.

But when times are normal I have no weekends, working 7 days and most intensely on the weekends (with more freedom than the average worker on weekdays). When times are abnormal like now, I work hard on weekends but the more intense days are during the week. As one subscriber put it:

“What a wild ride lately… Thanks for busting your ass for us all lately. As always, you’re the only reason I can handle being in this game.”  -Tom A  3.25.20

That was in reference to the massive amount of in-week effort we (I write “we” because it takes effort to be an NFTRH subscriber because they are tasked to work, not just receive instructions from some clown dressed as a guru) put in to manage volatile markets with formal subscriber updates and in particular, more dynamic in-day updates (with charts as needed) at the Trade Log Notes page. I believe you must be at your best and most interactive when most needed, especially during a crisis, not sitting on autopilot hoping no one notices.

When you’ve got a tiger by the tail you may not know exactly how it is going to react but you sure as hell don’t let go! Continue reading "Gold Miners Show The Way" →

Crude Oil Eyes $10

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

In February, I shared with you a "Buy Setup" for crude oil futures with a 1:6 risk/reward ratio. The trigger was set at $52.25, stop below $48.70, and the target was at $73.55. I always appreciate your kind support, as most of you liked that setup.

Oil Poll Results

I also asked you if you thought that crude oil had bottomed? Continue reading "Crude Oil Eyes $10" →

Are Silver & Gold Mirroring 1999 To 2011 Again?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Today, we are writing about a pattern that our research team sees in the Gold/Silver ratio which is correlated to the price movement of Gold. What does this mean and how can we profit from this setup? Let’s get started trying to explain this chart pattern/setup.

Gold/Silver Ratio Chart From A New Angle

This first chart highlights the pattern we have identified and how we believe a similar pattern is setting up again in the current market. The setup of the pattern is explained in the text below, but quickly scroll down and look at the first chart and the pink shaded areas “A” to get an idea of what we are talking about.

Prior To “A” Pattern Setup

After a moderate price decline in Gold (1996 through 2001), a bottom sets up as the price of Gold begins to base near support.

The Gold/Silver ratio (BLUE), falls throughout this pattern setup as both Gold and Silver prices decline somewhat in unison. Continue reading "Are Silver & Gold Mirroring 1999 To 2011 Again?" →