Oil Gas: Enhanced Recovery
Nothing catches the market's attention like cushy profit margins. Technologies that enable oil producers to drill more for less money were a notable theme for the experts featured in The Energy Report in 2013.
As Jim Letourneau commented, "Reducing drilling time by 2040% is an easy sell, and the enhanced oil recovery business has a huge market in the field." Continue reading "Fracking, Uranium and Solar, Oh My!"
The Energy Report: Chad, you recently released an early look at 2014 titled, Drilling Down for Outperformance. You noted that you saw an average 3540% upside on your Buy-rated names. What are your criteria for picking companies?
Chad Mabry: To start, we use a discounted cash flow-based net asset value (NAV) approach to valuing exploration and production (EP) stocks. While cash flow is an important metric, NAV does a better job of comparing companies with different asset profiles, specifically within the small and midcap EP space. NAV does a better job of accounting for a company's upside potential than cash-flow metrics. We use a bottom-up approach to drill down into a company's asset base, its average type curve, estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs), well costs and so on. In this way we find out about the economics of those plays and what the sensitivities are to our commodity price deck. We then try to sort out companies that aren't being valued appropriately and identify strong risk-reward opportunities.
TER: There has been a lot of commodity price volatility this last year. How do you determine what prices to use when you're estimating NAV? Continue reading "Where to Drill for Portfolio Outperformance"
The Gold Report: This year has been difficult for gold investors. The price went from a high of almost $1,800/ounce ($1,800/oz) to where it is now, in the mid-$1,200/oz range. You have written extensively about the supply and demand forces of precious metals. What is behind the drop in the gold price?
Jeffrey Christian: The single most important factor has been a massive decline in the investment demand for gold. In 2013 investors have bought about 30 million ounces (30 Moz) gold on a net basis globally. That's down from about 39 Moz in 2012 and 31 Moz in 2011, but it is still at a very high level compared to historic investment demand. The net purchases are down 24% because some investors are selling gold.
TGR: Are they putting their money into other investment vehicles or are they sitting on their cash? Continue reading "Lack Of Demand, Not Manipulation Is Behind The Gold Price Drop"
The Gold Report: Sean, over the next two months, you'll be launching two different newsletters. The first one will be called Gold and Resource Trader. Why is now the right time to debut?
Sean Brodrick: It is a good idea because gold is generally hated right now. I like to look smart. One way to look smart is to buy things near a bottom and then hold onto them as they increase in value.
There is real value in the gold mining area. I ran a screen recently showing 25 miners trading on U.S. exchanges below book value. Some of them I wouldn't buy, but some I would. This shows that real value is there. We are closer to the bottom than we were to the top, so now is a good time to get in.
TGR: Tell us about the second newsletter you're going to launch in January? Continue reading "Three Reasons Why Gold's Best Days Are Ahead"
The Gold Report: You've expressed astonishment at the record highs of world stock exchanges. Given the sluggish world economy, can we expect this trend to end, or have equities become completely disconnected from economic reality?
Leonard Melman: Equities have become somewhat disconnected from economic reality. We've heard comments from the European Central Bank, the U.S. Treasury and the Bank of Japan calling for more inflation because dramatic action is needed to improve the world economy. How does that coincide with the bull markets in equities?
TGR: Is there a connection between these bull markets and quantitative easing (QE)? Continue reading "Put Your Trust in Precious Metals, Not Governments"
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