Tag: streetwise interviews

Louis James: Are You Ready for an Early Shopping Season?

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The Gold Report: Jeff Clark, senior precious metals analyst at Casey Research, recently wrote in an article titled "Time to Admit that Gold Peaked in 2011?" that countered a chart making the rounds showing gold matching its 1980 inflation-adjusted dollars peak in 2011. The chart implies we should expect a decade or more of lower prices. Aside from the fact that John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics might have a problem with how inflation was calculated, how are gold's fundamentals different today than they were in 1984?

Louis James: The fact that things are different today than in the 1980s is a really good point. The argument over methodology almost doesn't matter. Even if it were true that the gold price of 2011 matched the inflation-adjusted gold price of 1980, that wouldn't mean that gold has to go down the way it did in 1980. There wasn't a near collapse in the banking sector back then. There wasn't the Lehman Brothers upset. The government did not triple the money supply. We're dealing not with apples and oranges, but apples and whales.

TGR: If history is not a map for the future, is John Williams correct that we are getting ready for hyperinflation? Continue reading "Louis James: Are You Ready for an Early Shopping Season?" →

Do You Practice Quality of Life Investing? Michael Berry Does

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The Energy Report: When we last interviewed your son, Chris Berry, he advised to invest based on the reality of a growing, emerging market in China. That included both energy and agriculture sectors. Are you also bullish on quality of life-based (QOL) investing?

Michael Berry: I am bullish; I developed the QOL concept a few years ago. What I'm seeing is quite a few big institution life insurance companies, family offices and money management companies opening quality of life funds, although often with different names. They are beginning to recognize that as people move from the country to the cities in the emerging markets, and a new middle class develops, they will want more animal-based protein chicken, fish, pork, beef and eggs. By 2030, once the credit cycle is corrected, I'm very bullish that quality of life funds are going to push forward. I think both the energy and the agriculture sectors are going to be interesting investment areas.

Chris and I have been spending a fair amount of time lecturing and presenting our QOL thesis and talking to investors and companies that have big stakes in this area. When you have 2 billion (2B) new consumers who want to live longer, healthier and easier, and who want better food, education and transportation, energy and nutrition will be key sectors.

TER: Does that mean that you are not worried about reports of slowing economic growth in China? Continue reading "Do You Practice Quality of Life Investing? Michael Berry Does" →

When The Major Equity Market Bubble Crashes, Michael Berry Will Take Refuge in These Gold Stocks

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The Gold Report: Mike, you've been watching the stock market and, by extension, the precious metals markets very closely for signs of a larger equity market blow-off that could send gold higher. What makes you think the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ are in a bubble? What are the signs that a crash might be imminent?

Michael Berry: I have been watching bubbles since 1987. In September of that year I correctly predicted the 25% crash of October 19. We have been blowing through mini and maxi bubbles for 30 years; this one is nothing new.

The solution to our macroeconomic issues has been to inflate new bubbles, to inflate asset values to soften the blow from the last bubble, all the while creating the conditions for the next one. That is how we ended up with the current equity market bubble. It is driven solely by the Federal Reserve's liquidity. Always remember that liquidity begets liquidity. I also see a debt market that I consider to be a bubble. These markets are just not sustainable. I can't say when, but we have an equity market decline coming, maybe a severe decline.

TGR: The housing bubble and the tech bubble were, by definition, confined to certain niches initially and then the impact reverberated to other sectors. Are you predicting a market-wide crash where everything falls or will it be confined to certain sectors? Continue reading "When The Major Equity Market Bubble Crashes, Michael Berry Will Take Refuge in These Gold Stocks" →

Big Data Goes Hollywood: Alfred Maydorn

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Special Situations: The ability to introduce technological innovations that disrupt established markets has long been a hallmark of capitalist success, as new firms with cutting-edge technologies overtake older, less-nimble companies tied to outmoded systems. What are some notable examples of innovations that have changed the way information and data services are sold?

Alfred Maydorn: The major technological transformation of our time is in how information is created and distributed on the Internet. Within that historic disruption there continue to be multiple disruptions and opportunities for gutsy investors. Never forget that Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ) and Google Inc. (GOOG:NASDAQ) began as small, disruptive start-ups. These companies are now e-commerce giants, rivaling Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT:NYSE) for market share. Continue reading "Big Data Goes Hollywood: Alfred Maydorn" →

Robert Cohen's Three Drivers for the Gold Price in 2014

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The Gold Report: Low interest rates, a cornerstone of recent modern Western economic policy, have proven positive for gold over the last several years. What do you see as the three primary price drivers for gold this year?

Rob Cohen: The primary price driver is global liquidity. That is fed by balance-sheet expansion in many Western countries and foreign exchange reserves, typically the result of trade deficits built up in countries such as China.

Number two is real interest rates. The Federal Reserve could tighten rates, but we don't know where inflation will be. Negative real rates are very good for gold. Mildly positive real rates are not harmful for gold. Positive real rates above 2% can stall the gold price.

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Number three is geopolitical crisis. Strife can get priced in and out of the gold price. Continue reading "Robert Cohen's Three Drivers for the Gold Price in 2014" →