How To Profit From The Polar Vortex

To profit from the short-term openings the market hands you, it takes the right strategy.

That's a lesson I had to learn after correctly predicting that the U.S. would be in for a remarkably cold winter. Though temperatures in much of the U.S. have fallen to the lowest levels in years, the stock picks I suggested simply didn't have enough leverage to weather as I anticipated. As I noted in late December, those picks rose only modestly as winter dug in, even as natural gas-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) fared a lot better.

The explanation is straightforward. As I noted last month, "Many energy traders don't trust quick moves in energy prices, and they assume that profit-taking will soon ensue. If gas prices move back below $4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), then these companies will generate a lesser benefit."

Since then, natural gas prices have kept surging, and these stocks still haven't budged much.

Yet a change in the weather provides a shot at redemption. Those rapidly surging ETFs appear set to reverse course, and you can even invest in this strategy without initiating a short sale. Continue reading "How To Profit From The Polar Vortex"

Get Positioned Now for the Next Great Natural Gas Switch

The Energy Report: Ron, welcome. You are making a presentation at the Money-Show conference in Orlando in late January. What is the gist of your presentation?

Ron Muhlenkamp: The gist of my presentation is that natural gas has become an energy game changer in the U.S. We are cutting the cost of energy in half. This has already happened for homeowners like me who heat their homes with natural gas. We think the next up to benefit is probably the transportation sector.

TER: What is behind this game change? Continue reading "Get Positioned Now for the Next Great Natural Gas Switch"

Dump Target? Only If You Want To Miss Double-Digit Upside

There are overreactions in the stock market all the time, leading to mispriced securities. This happens as investors tend to overreact to news or earnings. Almost no company is immune.

​Unjustified downward pressure can even happen to companies that offer products that touch every aspect of our lives. One thing that investors should remember is that these are usually near term pressures and can make for great buying opportunities. This is especially true if there is a long-term growth story is intact.

One recent example is blue-chip retailer Target (NYSE: TGT), which said last month that it had sustained a security breach of customer account info. The news continued to get worse for the stock as Target disclosed last week that additional info -- including phone numbers and street and email addresses -- might have been compromised. As a result, the company lowered its earnings outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter due to notably lower store traffic and sales stemming from news of the data breach. Continue reading "Dump Target? Only If You Want To Miss Double-Digit Upside"

Could It Be, Gold Actually Looks Bullish?

Traders are struggling to understand what the unemployment report means to the Federal Reserve and to the markets, but their initial assessment seems to be bullish.

Concerns About Spending Offset by Weak Jobs Data
SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) gained 0.68% last week despite negative news from several companies throughout the week.

Until Friday, retailers dominated the news about the stock market. J. C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) reported disappointing holiday sales and the stocks sold off. Other retailers also reported lower sales. Addressing future profitability, Macy's (NYSE: M) jumped after announcing plans to cut costs. Continue reading "Could It Be, Gold Actually Looks Bullish?"

Warning: Uncle Sam Can't Afford A Strong Economy

By the time the U.S. budget deficit reached $1.4 trillion in fiscal (October) 2009, alarm bells were sounding everywhere. Unless the government could get its fiscal house in order, the future promised years of misery as the U.S. kowtowed to its bondholders in China, Japan and elsewhere.

But this crisis simply never came to pass. Thanks to a range of factors for which both political parties can take some credit, the budget gap has already narrowed sharply. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the budget deficit will fall even further in fiscal 2014 and 2015. Continue reading "Warning: Uncle Sam Can't Afford A Strong Economy"