Tag: StockNews

Stock Buyers Beware!

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

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The bull vs. bear tug of war is at another critical juncture as they battle over 4,000. The two previous skirmishes were won by the bears.

I am referring to the big rallies that ran out of steam in mid August and early December. The hawkish Fed was the main catalyst each time to swing things back to the downside.

Will that be the case once again after the February 1st Fed announcement?

That is the topic that most deserves our attention at this time, and will be the focus of this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary.

Market Commentary

The boiled down version of today’s commentary can easily be labeled: Stock Buyers Beware!

That’s because price action is saying one thing…but fundamentals are saying another with the final verdict likely coming after the 2/1 Fed announcement.

Now let’s go back to the starting line by evaluating this picture of where we stand now with a possible breakout above the long-term trend line. Also known as the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 in red below.

Yes, it appears that we have a break out forming at this time. However, see how similar events happened back in late March and late November before the bears took charge once again.

Chartists will also note that this is still quite bearish. First, because we are officially in a bear market. We would need to cross above 4,189 to state that a bull market was in place.

Second, we have a series of lower highs which is a negative trend until it is officially reversed.

To be clear, this could be the forming of the new bull market. And you should never fully ignore the wisdom of the crowd as it appears in price action. Continue reading "Stock Buyers Beware!" →

KISS Investing in 2023

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

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It been roughly 40 years since investors have been faced with high inflation as the cause of a recession and bear market. And yet we have been dealt 5 bear markets since that time.

The point being that the majority of today’s investors have either never seen inflation cause a recession… or it is so far back in the memory banks that they don’t know how to properly react to the information in hand.

This begs us to get back to KISS investing.

Instead of what it usually means: Keep It Simple Stupid

In 2023 we will go with: Keep Inflation Separate Stupid

The reason for this pearl of investing wisdom will be fully illuminated in this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary.

Market Commentary

There have been quite a few joyous bear market rallies this past year based on the notion that inflation was cooling…which would mean the Fed would pivot to more dovish policies soon… which eventually fell apart when the Fed dumped cold water on the situation.

I sense the same set up is taking place now coming into their February 1st rate hike decision and announcement. And that is why I continue to be bearish even as the S&P 500 (SPY) is flirting with a breakout above the long term trend like (aka 200 day moving average) @ 3,978.

Yes, one could say that we have closed above for 2 straight sessions. Yet hard to call it a breakout when the psychologically important 4,000 level looms large overhead. Until we break above that key hurdle, then the bears are still in control.

Back to the KISS theme: Keep Inflation Separate Stupid Continue reading "KISS Investing in 2023" →

Are Stocks Stuck in a Trading Range til February?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

Stocks are likely going to be stuck in a trading range until the next Fed announcement on Wednesday February 1st.

Why?

Because investors have been burned many times before getting bullish in hopes of a Fed pivot that did not arrive.

So even with signs of moderating inflation providing a modest lift to stocks of late…there is a limit to the upside until investors hear from the Fed again. There is also limit to the downside. And this begets a trading range.

Let’s discuss the shape of the trading range and possible outcomes after the Fed announcement. All that and more is on tap for this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary.

Market Commentary

In many ways the trading range has already been in place for the past month flitting between 3,800 and 4,000 for the S&P 500.

And this is likely to stay in place as investors are fearful of reading the Fed tea leaves wrong as they have so many times this year. So even though there were welcome signs of moderating wage inflation (public enemy #1 to the Fed) there are enough whispers from the Fed that their job is far from done.

One such whisper from the Fed recently came from Atlanta Fed President, Ralph Bostic. During his speech he shared that interest rates will get above 5% and hold there for a while. He was then asked for how long would they remain elevated above 5% for which he stated emphatically. “three words: a long time”.

This harkens back to December 14th when the market was on the verge of a breakout above the 200 day moving average before Powell slammed the door on that notion. He too repeated the 3 word mantra (a long time) over and over again when discussing their plans for higher rates. Continue reading "Are Stocks Stuck in a Trading Range til February?" →

3 Stocks to Leave Out of Your Retirement Portfolio

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The Fed announced its third consecutive 75-bps interest rate hike last week, which has caused the benchmark indices to plunge. The S&P 500 has lost 5.2% over the past week and 23.3% year-to-date. Moreover, Goldman Sachs slashed its 2022 year-end S&P 500 target to 3600, down 16.3% from 4300.

According to Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer, Independent Advisor Alliance, Charlotte, NC, “The Fed is going to raise rates until inflation comes back down, and they will cause a recession in the process.”

Also, Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, said, “The probability of recession, I think it’s much higher than 50% — I think it’s about 80%.”

Given the uncertain economic outlook, fundamentally weak stocks Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER), Workhorse Group Inc. (WKHS), and AppHarvest, Inc. (APPH) might be best avoided for your retirement portfolio. These stocks do not pay dividends, which is the key requirement for a stock to be added to a retirement portfolio.

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)

UBER develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through three segments: Mobility; Delivery; and Freight.

On September 25, 2022, Pomerantz LLP announced the filing of a class action lawsuit against UBER and some of its officers, alleging violations of federal securities laws. The suit is on behalf of a class of all persons and entities except Defendants that purchased or acquired UBER common stock between May 31, 2019, and July 8, 2022.

UBER’s revenue came in at $8.07 billion for the second quarter that ended June 30, 2022, up 105.5% year-over-year. However, its net loss came in at $2.60 billion compared to an income of $1.14 billion in the year-ago period. Moreover, its loss per share came in at $1.33, compared to an EPS of $0.58 in the prior-year period.

UBER’s EPS is expected to decline 367% year-over-year to negative $4.67 in 2022. Its EPS is estimated to remain negative in 2023. It missed EPS estimates in three of the four trailing quarters. Over the past year, the stock has lost 42.3% to close the last trading session at $26.89. Continue reading "3 Stocks to Leave Out of Your Retirement Portfolio" →

3 Meme Stocks to Avoid

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Meme stocks witness unusual rallies solely based on retail investors’ interest in them. Retail investors gather on social media platforms such as Reddit, Stocktwits, Twitter, and Facebook and bet on fundamentally weak stocks to trigger a short squeeze. As the skyrocketing rallies in these stocks have little to do with the fundamentals of the companies, they fail to sustain the high price levels they reach.

The meme stock mania, born during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, has recently returned after a pause for a few months, as evident from unusual rallies of certain fundamentally weak stocks. Since the surge in meme stocks is usually disconnected from the companies’ fundamentals, investors should shun them amid an uncertain market outlook.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 8.3% year-over-year. And the rampant inflation enhances the chances of the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish stance, pushing an already weakening economy into a recession. Thus, the stock market is expected to remain under pressure in the foreseeable future. This is a good enough reason to avoid the risk associated with meme stocks.

Hence, fundamentally weak meme stocks Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC), and Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) are likely best avoided now.

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)

HOOD operates a financial services platform in the United States. The company’s platform enables users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), gold, options, and cryptocurrencies. In addition, it provides learning and education solutions, including Snacks for business news stories, News Feeds that give access to free premium news from different sites, and first trade recommendations.

In August, HOOD announced its second round of layoffs this year, slashing 23% of its headcount by letting go of 800 employees, with marketing, operations, and product management functions of the firm being the most impacted. The company blamed the worsening of the economy, including inflation and the crypto market crash, which had reduced customer trading activity and assets under custody.

Financial services companies are also struggling with a shrinking active user base and increasing regulatory pressure. The monthly active users (MAU) declined 1.9% million sequentially to 14 million for June 2022, as consumers navigate an environment marked by high-interest rates and surging inflation.

For the fiscal 2022 second quarter ended June 30, 2022, HOOD’s revenues decreased 43.7% year-over-year to $318 million. Its operating expenses increased 21.8% from the year-ago value to $610 million. The company’s adjusted EBITDA was negative $80 million, compared to $90 million in the prior-year period.

In addition, the company’s net loss and loss per share attributable to common stockholders amounted to $295 million and $0.34, respectively.

The consensus revenue estimate of $353.60 million for the fiscal year 2022 (ending December 2022) represents a 24.7% decline from the prior-year period. The company’s loss per share is expected to come in at $1.14 for the current year. Furthermore, the company has missed the consensus revenue estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

HOOD’s shares have slumped 21.4% over the past six months and 44.4% year-to-date to close the trading session at $10.26. Continue reading "3 Meme Stocks to Avoid" →