Tag: StockNews

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

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January offered a rip roaring start for stock investors. The +6.2% result for S&P 500 (SPY) barely scratches the surface on how Risk On the month was versus the generous gains for many of 2022’s most beaten down growth stocks.

The party continued when the calendar first flipped to February. But then investors got served a series of far too hot inflation reports that reminded them the Fed’s fight was far from over. From there stocks headed lower with a -5% drop from the February peak to the current valley.

This sets up for a very interesting month of March with many potential catalysts on the calendar that could have stocks racing higher again… or more likely breaking back into bearish territory.

Let’s dig in deeper on the current market landscape to get our portfolios ready for what lies ahead.

Market Commentary

The best way to set the backdrop for the February sell off is by reminding everyone of this equation:

Higher Rates on the Way (5%+)

+

Higher Rates in Place til at Least End of 2023

+

6-12 months of lagged economic impact

+

Already weak economic readings

=

Fertile soil to create recession and thus extension of the bear market with lower lows on the way. Continue reading "Investors: Beware the Ides of March!" →

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

I have been bearish since May 2022. However, I have to admit that the early 2023 evidence did increase the odds of a potential return to a bull market.

That party is over!

Let’s discuss the increasing evidence that bears are ready to come out of hibernation with much more downside to follow. And yes, this will come hand in hand with a trading plan to stay on the right side of action.

Market Commentary

Plain and simple, stocks rallied on a false premise to start 2023.

That being some signs of moderating inflation that could lead the Fed to end their rate hiking regime earlier than expected. This soft landing scenario compelled more investors to believe that bottom was already established and time to bid up stocks for the birth of the next bull market.

The Fed whole heartedly repudiated this idea at the February 1st meeting. They saw inflation as too sticky with no plans to change their hawkish course with higher rates in place through year end.

Bulls were clearly huffing aerosol paint cans at the time because they rallied on the false notion these statements were somehow dovish. The best I can figure out is that because Powell was not pounding the podium and foaming at the mouth that he was somehow dovish.

Clearly not true.

Since then more investors have gotten the memo that the early year rally was premature. Especially after Thursday when the Producer Price Index showed that inflation is much higher than expected.

I saw that event as Strike 3 for bulls as it came on the heels of 2 other events showing inflation being much higher than expected. Continue reading "Are Bearish Investors Coming Out of Hibernation?" →

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

The stock market (SPY) has been up, down and all around since last week’s commentary. That’s because bulls and bears are slugging it out for dominance during this “Dazed & Confused” phase for the market.

What does that mean?

What happens next?

What should an investor do about it?

We will explore the answers for each of these pressing questions in this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary.

Market Commentary

Now let’s a step back to last week’s commentary where I outlined 4 possible outcomes for the market after the very important Fed rate announcement on Wednesday 2/1. Indeed, we landed on the least of attractive of which. That being…

Scenario 4: Dazed & Confused

"This is where the Fed gives mixed signals. Still hawkish for a long time to save face given previous statements. And yet do tip their hat a little to moderating inflation.

This gray area leads to a trading range until investors have more facts in hand. I suspect that 4,000 is the low end with 4,200 at the high end. This comes hand in hand with a ton of volatility as each new headline has investors recalibrate the bull/bear odds."

The market since then has lived up to ever single syllable of the above expectations. Especially the part about the volatility that comes after every key headline. Continue reading "Are Stock Investors "Dazed & Confused"?" →

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

Why are so many investment experts still calling for a bear market?

And just as interesting…why are so many equally talented investors saying the new bull market is already here?

Because investing is an inexact science leading some to rely on economic data…while others prefer to read the charts…or the expression on Powell’s face… or astrology signs or….(fill in the blank with the nuttiest thing you can think of).

So what is an investor to do when there are so many well-reasoned opinions that are giving such contradictory conclusions?

That will be the focus of this week’s commentary.

Market Commentary

I believe the best way to tell this story is from a very personal place. That being where I have an Economics degree and most certainly diagnose the market from a fundamental point of view.

Early on in my career I used to make fun of chartist for playing the market like a video game instead of taking it more seriously with fundamentals. Yet that was quite foolish on my part as I have come to greatly respect many of the leading chartist like Kevin Matras of Zacks and JC Parets of AllStarCharts.com. There is simply no denying their keen insights on market direction.

Now let’s move the conversation forward to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. I was already bearish beforehand…as are the majority of market commentators at this time. And I became even more bearish after the announcement. Amazingly, others saw it differently as stocks 3% from the time of the speech into Thursday’s close.

I went to bad Wednesday night angry, confused, dejected, perplexed, and downright flummoxed.

But then something dawned on me in the early hours and could not get back to sleep. This led to the following trade alert that I sent out to Reitmeister Total Return members on Thursday morning. Continue reading "Bullish or Bearish or BOTH???" →

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

I was not the first guy to get bearish in 2022, but by May I got the memo just in the nick of time. This led to a major shift in my portfolio that allowed me to profit on the way down. And I have been steadfastly bearish since.

But just like the Fed, my outlook is “data dependent”. And recent data has me becoming less bearish. Note that is not the same thing as becoming bullish.

Why the change of heart? And what does that mean for trading strategy going forward?

Read on below for the full story…

Market Commentary

First, let’s start with some important terminology. Less bearish is quite different than being bullish.

Imagine that I previously saw 80% odds of bear market and lower stock prices in 2023. Thus, only a 20% possibility of bull market.

Given recent information my view has shifted down to about 65% bearish probability versus 35% bullish. That is nearly 2 to 1 in favor of bear market forming… just a notch less bearish than before. The next logical question is…

Why still bearish?

You have already me talk non-stop since last May about all the reasons to be bearish. That is overflowing in my article archive. Plus my most recent presentation puts that all into perspective in a nice concise way: Stock Trading Plan for 2023.

Now we are going to flip over this coin and talk about the bullish view. It is hard for me to say it in a straight forward manner. Instead, I am going to flush out all the individual ideas that point in a bullish direction…the sum total of them is still less likely than the bearish thesis playing out. Continue reading "6 Reasons to Become Bullish Now" →