What's Next For Oil? Use Logic

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


All right. Now we've tried everything. And we still can't figure out when oil prices will finally turn around – or at least stabilize.

Experts' predictions are all over the map. Smart people – including analysts, industry executives, and entrepreneurs – are on both sides. Many predict even lower oil prices before the market steadies itself. Many others predict oil in the $40-60 range again as soon as the 2nd half of 2016. Both groups have applied rigorous study and analysis. Both have valid, compelling points.

Yet, the more I listen, the more confused I become. Meanwhile, oil prices continue falling like a knife. What's truly causing this massive, slow-moving train wreck from $107/barrel in June 2014 to $27/barrel 19 months later?

Logic

Recently, many pundits and experts seem to be speaking in a refreshing new language. It sounds a lot like logic and common sense. I've heard a ton of commentary lately that makes me go "hmm, that seems logical." Today I'll summarize a selection of these observations, and add a few musings of my own.

We've tried everything else. Let's try applying some logic to the situation. Continue reading "What's Next For Oil? Use Logic"

If the oil supercycle is dead, do you believe in resurrection? Or reincarnation?

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


As INO’s Energies contributor, how could I ignore Saudi Prince Alwaleed’s provocative statement that oil will “never” hit $100 “anymore”? In his interview with Maria Bartiromo for an article in Monday’s USA Today, Prince Alwaleed aptly summarized key reasons for today’s low oil prices, but (importantly) he didn’t give offer any evidence that oil would “never” again reach triple digits.

Still, many are decrying the “end of the oil supercycle.” Perhaps the supercycle is dead; or perhaps not. Either way, the world still needs energy from someplace, right? And lots of it! Which path, then, does the future hold? A resurrection of the oil supercycle? Or a reincarnation of a new energy supercycle based on resources other than oil? (Or “all of the above”?).

One prominent money management firm I’ve followed for most of my investment career, WHV Investments in San Francisco, was the first to introduce me to the term “supercycle” – referring to the coming oil- and steel-intensive “industrial revolution” that kicked into high gear in emerging countries in the early 2000s. By way of background, WHV is no “closet indexer.” Its managed portfolios, rather, reflect the firm’s conviction in top-down macroeconomic themes and trends identified by its team of analysts and managers. Continue reading "If the oil supercycle is dead, do you believe in resurrection? Or reincarnation?"