Tag: said

Pipeline Powerhouses: Oneok (OKE) vs. Williams Companies (WMB) as Dividend Plays

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Energy demand continues to rise worldwide, driven by the growing population, rapid urbanization, and economic development. Increased energy consumption across residential, commercial, and industrial activities necessitates the expansion and modernization of energy infrastructure to ensure a consistent supply of energy.

The energy infrastructure sector operates assets that offer services crucial for expanding the global economy and ensuring energy security. The industry is supported by stable cash flows, high barriers to entry, long-lived real assets, and inelastic demand, which collectively contributed to double-digit returns in 2023.

Energy infrastructure companies are well-poised to provide essential services for decades to come. In 2024, the sector’s total return is projected to be between 10% and 14%, driven by a dividend yield between 6%-7%, expected dividend growth of 3%-5%, and stock buybacks of 1%-2%.

Notably, as represented by the Alerian Midstream Energy Index, the energy infrastructure sector delivered an impressive 25% annualized return compared to the S&P 500’s 10% from December 31, 2020, to December 31, 2023.

Moreover, the growth in the U.S. natural gas and oil production volumes is expected to set new records, reinforcing the U.S. position as the world’s largest energy exporter.

According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. natural gas trade will continue to expand with the startup of new LNG export projects. Also, EIA expects increased natural gas exports by pipeline, primarily to Mexico.

In its STEO forecast, net exports of U.S. natural gas will rise 6% year-over-year to 13.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024. In 2025, net exports are expected to grow another 20% to 16.4 Bcf/d. U.S. LNG exports are projected to grow by 2% in 2024 to an average of 12.2 Bcf/d and an additional 18% (2.1 Bcf/d).

As per a Research and Markets report, the oil and gas midstream market is expected to reach $43.41 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% during the forecast period (2024-2030).

As the energy infrastructure sector has been a hotspot for dividend-seeking investors, ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) and The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) stand out as prominent players offering attractive yields and stable returns.

On April 18, OKE’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of 99 cents ($0.99) per share, paid on May 15 to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 1. Its annual dividend of $3.96 translates to a yield of 4.79% at the prevailing share price. Its four-year average dividend yield is 7.08%.

Further, the company’s dividend payments have increased at a CAGR of 2.7% over the past five years.

Meanwhile, on January 30, WMB’s Board of Directors approved a dividend of $0.475 per share, paid on March 25, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 8. This represents a 6.1% increase from the company’s fourth-quarter 2023 dividend, paid in December 2023. Its annual dividend of $1.90 translates to a yield of 4.6% at the current share price.

Moreover, the company’s dividend payouts have grown at a CAGR of 5.4% over the past five years. Its four-year average dividend yield is 5.95%. Additionally, WMB has raised its dividend for six consecutive years.

Let’s examine OKE and WMB’s recent financial performance, strategic initiatives, valuation, and growth outlook more thoroughly to determine whether these stocks are worth buying or holding.

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)

With a $48.23 billion market cap, ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) engages in the gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, transportation, and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL). It operates through four segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing; Natural Gas Liquids; Natural Gas Pipelines; and Refined Products and Crude. 

On May 13, OKE announced an agreement to acquire a system of natural gas liquids (NGL) pipelines from Easton Energy, a Houston-based midstream company, for around $280 million. The transaction encompasses nearly 450 miles of NGL pipelines in the strategic Gulf Coast market centers for NGLs, refined products, and crude oil.

These pipelines transport various liquid products through a portion of OKE’s capacity to current customers. The company intends to connect the pipelines to its NGL infrastructure in Mont Belvieu, Texas, and its refined products and crude oil infrastructure in Houston, thereby accelerating commercial synergies.

“We expect that this acquisition will accelerate the ability to capture commercial synergies related to our recent Magellan acquisition and future earnings growth,” said Pierce H. Norton II, OKE’s President and CEO.

Also, in March, ONEOK increased its stake in the Saddlehorn Pipeline Company by acquiring an additional 10% interest, bringing its total ownership to 40% as of March 31, 2024.

OKE’s trailing-12-month EBIT margin and net income margin of 21.17% and 12.54% are 11% and 9.7% higher than the industry averages of 19.07% and 11.43%, respectively. However, the stock’s trailing-12-month gross profit margin of 36% is 19.4% lower than the 44.68% industry average.

In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, OKE is trading at 16.62x, 45.8% higher than the industry average of 11.40x. Its forward EV/EBITDA of 11.34x is 95.6% higher than the industry average of 5.80x. Also, its forward Price/Sales of 1.07x is 38.7% higher than the industry average of 1.49x.

For the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, OKE reported a 12% year-over-year rise in Rocky Mountain region NGL raw feed throughput volumes. It posted a 4% increase in natural gas volumes processed and a 9% growth in Rocky Mountain region natural gas volumes processed.

ONEOK’s adjusted EBITDA from the natural gas gathering and processing segment and the natural gas pipelines segments were $306 million and $165 million, up 7.4% and 4.4% year-over-year, respectively.

However, the company’s total revenues declined 5.8% from the prior year’s quarter to $4.78 billion. Its operating income was $1.06 billion, a decline of 29.9% year-over-year. Also, net income available to common shareholders and EPS came in at $639 million and $1.09, down 39.1% and 53.4% from the previous year’s period, respectively.

“The strength of our business, underscored by accelerating volumes and a positive synergy outlook, resulted in an increase to our 2024 financial guidance and provides significant momentum into 2025,” said Pierce H. Norton II.

ONEOK increased 2024 net income guidance by $70 million to a midpoint of $2.88 billion. The company raised its EPS to a midpoint of $4.92. Also, its adjusted EBITDA guidance increased by $75 million to a midpoint of $6.175 billion.

Furthermore, its 2024 capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion. The company also expects that additional annual synergies will meet or surpass $125 million in 2025.

Looking ahead, analysts expect OKE’s revenue for the fiscal year (ending December 2024) to increase by 32% year-over-year to $23.34 billion. However, the consensus EPS estimate of $4.97 for the current year indicates a decline of 9.3% year-over-year. Moreover, ONEOK has missed consensus revenue estimates in all four trailing quarters and consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.

For the fiscal year 2025, the company’s revenue and EPS are estimated to grow 6.4% and 10.4% year-over-year to $24.83 billion and $5.49, respectively.

Shares of OKE have surged nearly 23% over the past six months and more than 44% over the past year.

The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)

With a market cap of $50.30 billion, The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) operates as an energy infrastructure company. Its four business divisions include Transmission & Gulf of Mexico; Northeast G&P; West; and Gas & NGL Marketing Services. 

During the quarter of 2024, WMB placed Transco’s Carolina market link into service. This development contributed to additional fee-based revenues.

 The midstream company finished 2023 with a deal to acquire a portfolio of natural gas storage assets from an affiliate of Hartree Partners LP for $1.95 billion.

The transaction includes six underground natural gas storage facilities in Louisiana and Mississippi with a total capacity of 115 Bcf, 230 miles of gas transmission pipeline and 30 pipeline interconnects to LNG markets, and connections to Transco, the nation’s largest natural gas transmission pipeline.

These Gulf Coast natural gas storage assets are strategically located to take advantage of solid LNG and power demand fundamentals, boosting the company’s earnings growth.

WMB’s trailing-12-month gross profit margin of 60.70% is 35.9% higher than the 44.68% industry average. Its trailing-12-month EBITDA margin of 28.40% is 148.4% higher than the 11.43% industry average. However, the stock’s trailing-12-month ROTC and ROTA of 6% and 5.47% are lower than the industry averages of 7.75% and 5.74%, respectively.

In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, WMB is trading at 22.65x, 98.6% higher than the industry average of 11.40x. Also, its forward EV/EBITDA and Price/Sales of 11.27x and 4.86x are unfavorably compared to respective industry averages of 5.80x and 1.49x.

In the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, WMB’s service revenues increased 12.5% year-over-year to $1.91 billion, but its total revenues came in at $2.77 billion, down 10.1% from the year-ago value. Its adjusted EBITDA grew 7.7% year-over-year to $1.93 billion.

The adjusted EBITDA growth was driven by the continued outperformance of its transmission, storage, and gathering businesses, which delivered 13% higher adjusted EBITDA compared to the same period in 2023. Also, contracted transmission capacity achieved another record of 33.9 Bcf/d in the first quarter, up 4.3% year-over-year.

In addition, the company’s adjusted net income and earnings per share were $719 million and $0.59, up 5.1% and 5.4% from the prior year’s period, respectively. Its available funds from operations increased 4.3% year-over-year to $1.51 billion.

“Crisp execution by our teams in both integrating newly acquired assets and building large-scale organic projects has us on track to be in the top half of our original 2024 guidance range,” commented Alan Armstrong, president and CEO of WMB.

He added, “Our track record of generating predictable, growing earnings in all market cycles underscores the value of Williams as a resilient, long-term investment with a strong dividend.”

Williams projects adjusted EBITDA at the top half of its 2024 guidance range of $6.8 billion and $7.1 billion. It continues to expect 2024 growth capex of $1.45-$1.75 billion and maintenance capex of $1.1-$1.3 billion, which includes capital of $350 million for emissions reduction and modernization initiatives.

For 2025, WMB expects adjusted EBITDA between $7.2 billion and $7.6 billion, with growth capex between $1.65 billion and $1.95 billion and maintenance capex between $750 million and $850 million, which includes capital of $100 million based on a midpoint for emissions reduction and modernization initiatives. Also, it continues to anticipate a leverage ratio midpoint for 2024 of 3.85x.

Street expects WMB’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year (ending December 2024) to decrease 5.2% and 4.58% year-over-year to $10.34 billion and $1.82, respectively. For the fiscal year 2025, the company’s revenue and EPS are expected to increase 11.4% and 12.3% from the prior year to $11.52 billion and $2.05, respectively.

WMB’s stock has gained more than 15% over the past six months and approximately 42% over the past year.

Bottom Line

The energy infrastructure sector is well-poised for robust growth and expansion, driven by rising global energy demand amid a growing population, urbanization, and economic development. The industry’s stable cash flows, high barriers to entry, and inelastic demand contributed to impressive double-digit returns in 2023.

Further, the sector is projected to deliver a total return of 10% to 14% in 2024, supported by attractive dividend yields, dividend growth, and stock buybacks. OKE and WMB are critical players within the sector, each with strategic initiatives and strong dividend profiles.

ONEOK’s raised financial 2024 guidance reflects favorable industry fundamentals across its system and continued confidence in synergy expectations. However, the company’s recent first-quarter 2024 results indicate mixed performance, with revenue year-over-year declines and pressure on profit margins.

Despite these challenges, OKE’s dividend yield remains attractive, and its long-term growth outlook is supported by surging energy demand and infrastructure expansion.

Similarly, Williams has demonstrated solid financial health with strategic investments and integration of newly acquired natural gas storage assets. While the company reported year-over-year growth in service revenues and adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, overall revenues have declined.

WMB’s strong dividend track record and future growth projections underscore its potential as a resilient, long-term investment. The company leverages its existing infrastructure and project development capabilities to serve growing domestic and global security needs while creating sustainable value for its shareholders.

Given the mixed fundamentals, it seems prudent for investors to hold OKE and WMB stocks and wait for better entry points. Both companies offer attractive dividends and long-term growth prospects, but market conditions and stock valuations should be carefully considered to maximize investment returns.

3M's Dividend Cut Signals Shift in Investor Strategy: What Does It Mean for Shareholders?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

With a $56.02 billion market cap, 3M Company (MMM) offers diversified technology services, focusing on consumer goods, safety and industrial, healthcare, and transportation sectors. On May 14, MMM declared a dividend on the company’s common stock of $0.70 per share for the second quarter of 2024, payable on June 12. 

The company has paid dividends to its shareholders without interruption for more than 100 years. However, the newly declared dividend is down from the previous quarter’s dividend of $1.51, and this dividend cut will end a 64-year streak of increases.

Let's delve into the implications of 3M’s significant dividend reduction for investors, examining the reasons behind this decision and its effects on shareholder value.

3M Spun-Off Its Healthcare Business

In April, MMM successfully completed the planned spin-off of its healthcare division, which formally launched Solventum Corporation as an independent company. Solventum is now publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol SOLV.

“This is an important day for 3M and Solventum, and I extend my sincere congratulations to members of both teams who have made this possible,” said Mike Roman, 3M chairman and CEO. “Both companies are positioned to pursue their respective growth and tailored capital allocation plans, and I am excited to see both companies succeed as they innovate new solutions and create value for their respective stakeholders.”

Given the spin-off of its healthcare business, 3M’s recent dividend cut was not surprising. The launch of Solventum as an independent entity impacted MMM’s financial landscape, as the healthcare segment accounted for nearly 30% of the company’s free cash flow.

Now, the consumer and industrial products company is aiming for a dividend payout ratio of approximately 40% of adjusted free cash flow compared to about 60% before the Solventum spin-off.

MMM’s annual dividend of $2.80 translates to a yield of 5.05% at the prevailing share price. Its four-year average dividend yield is 3.75%.

Lost Dividend Aristocrat Status

The recent dividend reduction will cause 3M to lose its status as a Dividend Aristocrat, a company that has increased its dividend payouts for at least 25 consecutive years. Once 3M is removed, the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat Index will consist of 66 components.

S&P Global reviews the index qualification once per year in January, suggesting that 3M stock might remain in the index until early 2025.

The removal from the index is not expected to impact the stock significantly. Former 3M CEO Mike Roman had already informed investors about resetting the company’s dividend post the April 1 spinoff.

3M’s stock soared toward a 16-month high on Wednesday after the company cut its quarterly dividend but by less than what was anticipated.

J.P. Morgan analyst Stephen Tusa expressed “relief” that the dividend wasn’t slashed even more. With 553.36 million shares outstanding as of March 31, the new annual dividend rate of $2.80 per share translates to a total annual payout of approximately $1.55 billion. Tusa noted that this payout is higher than the expected $1.4 billion.

While the dividend cut may initially impact investor sentiment and income, the broader market’s reaction suggests that it has anticipated and priced this adjustment due to 3M’s spin-off of its massive healthcare business, Solventum.

Investors should monitor the company’s financial reports, strategic moves, and efforts to address underlying challenges, which could ultimately shape the trajectory of shareholder value in the upcoming quarters.

First-Quarter Results and Updated Full-Year 2024 Guidance Reflecting Completion of Solventum Spin

For the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, MMM’s revenue of $8 billion surpassed analysts’ estimate of $7.66 billion. Its organic sales grew 0.8% year-over-year, marking the first positive growth in the past five quarters. Its adjusted operating income margin was 21.9%, up four percentage points year-over-year.

The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.39, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.11, and up 21% year-over-year. During the quarter, 3M’s adjusted free cash flow was $0.8 billion. Moreover, the company returned $835 million to shareholders via dividends.

Furthermore, as of March 31, 2024, the materials company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $10.91 billion, compared to $5.93 billion as of December 31, 2023. The company’s total current assets were $21.61 billion versus $16.38 billion as of December 31, 2023.

Starting in the second quarter of 2024, Solventum’s historical earnings results will be reported within 3M’s financial statements as discontinued operations.

According to the full-year 2024 outlook, the company projects adjusted organic sales growth to be flat-2%. Also, its adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $6.80 to $7.30.

Strategic Initiatives and Legal Settlements

On May 3, 3M announced a 90,000-square-foot expansion at its facility in Valley, Nebraska, boosting the plant’s manufacturing capacity and adding around 40 new jobs. The $67 million investment includes new production lines, equipment, and a warehouse, enabling 3M to meet customer demand for its personal safety products more efficiently.

In addition, MMM is making changes in its leadership structure. On March 12, the company announced the appointment of William M. “Bill” Brown as chief executive officer, effective May 1, 2024. He succeeded Michael Roman, who was appointed to the role of Executive Chairman of the 3M Board of Directors, also effective May 1.

“Bill's strong track record as a CEO for a global technology company makes him the right leader for 3M,” said Michael Roman. “He brings a wealth of experience in strategic leadership, innovation, and operational excellence to 3M. I look forward to working with him to build on our momentum in my new role as executive chairman.”

Further, 3M has faced substantial lawsuits, but they are beginning to resolve these issues. On April 1, 3M’s previously announced settlement with U.S.-based public water suppliers (PWS) to address PFAS in drinking water received final court approval.

This marks another significant development for 3M as it remains committed to its objectives. The final approval of this settlement and the company’s ongoing progress to cease all PFAS manufacturing by the end of 2025 will further its efforts to minimize risk and uncertainty in the future.

The company also settled the Combat Arms Earplug litigation. More than 99% of claimants have signed on at the last registration date, marking a significant stride in resolving this long-running dispute.

Bottom Line

MMM delivered better-than-expected first-quarter 2024 results as it returned to organic sales growth and achieved doubt-digit growth in adjusted earnings. The company enhanced performance in its businesses through effective operation management, successfully executed the Solventum spin-off, and finalized two major legal settlements.

The significant progress 3M has made in executing its strategic priorities set the stage for long-term value creation for shareholders, particularly as Bill Brown assumes the role of the CEO.

The recent dividend cut by 3M, following the spin-off of its healthcare division Solventum, was largely anticipated by investors and analysts as part of its broader strategic realignment. While the cut ended a streak of 64 straight years of increases, it was less than feared; 3 M’s stock is trading higher.

Moreover, the stock has surged nearly 3% over the past five days and more than 8% over the past month.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan upgraded 3M to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target on the stock from $110 to $111.

The upgrade reflects “a combination of an attractive valuation, an increasingly cleaned up balance sheet, with the dividend cut catalyst behind them now, and a turn in earnings momentum on a bottom in electronics, with better visibility on remainco fundamentals,” Stephen Tusa said in a note to clients.

Moving forward, investors should closely monitor 3M's financial performance, execution of strategic plans, and ability to capitalize on growth opportunities. The company’s trajectory in addressing underlying challenges and creating long-term shareholder value will be the key factors influencing investor sentiment and decision-making in the upcoming quarters.

Why Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Could Be a Hidden Gem for Growth Investors

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In March 2024, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) became the latest artificial intelligence (AI) company to join the S&P 500 index, just a little more than a year after joining the S&P MidCap 400 in December 2022. Shares of SMCI jumped by more than 2,000% in the past two years, driven by robust demand for its AI computing products, which led to rapid sales growth.

Moreover, SMCI’s stock has surged nearly 205% over the past six months and more than 520% over the past year. A historic rally in the stock has pushed the company’s market cap past $48 billion.

SMCI is a leading manufacturer of IT solutions and computing products, including storage and servers tailored for enterprise and cloud data centers, purpose-built for use cases such as AI, cloud computing, big data, and 5G applications. The company has significantly benefited from the ongoing AI boom in the technology sector.

According to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s report, the global AI server market is expected to reach $50.65 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 26.5% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

Specializing in servers and computer infrastructure, SMCI maintains long-term alliances with major tech companies, including Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), Intel Corporation (INTC), and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), which have fueled the company’s profitability and growth.

Let’s discuss Super Micro Computer’s fundamentals and growth prospects in detail:

Recent Strategic Developments

On April 9, SMCI announced its X14 server portfolio with future support for the Intel® Xeon® 6 processor with early access programs. Supermicro’s Building Block Architecture, rack plug-and-play, and liquid cooling solutions, along with the breadth of the new Intel Xeon 6 processor family, enables the delivery of optimized solutions for any workload and at any scale, offering superior performance and efficiency.

The upcoming processor family will be available with Efficient-core (E-core) SKUs rising performance-per-watt for cloud, networking, analytics, and scale-out workloads, and Performance-core (P-core) SKUs increasing performance-per-core for AI, HPC, Storage and Edge workloads. 

Also, the upcoming processor portfolio will feature built-in Intel Accelerator Engines with new support for FP16 on Intel Advanced Matrix Extensions.

In the same month, SMCI expanded its edge compute portfolio to accelerate IoT and edge AI workloads with a new generation of embedded solutions.

“We continue to expand our system product line, which now includes servers that are optimized for the edge and can handle the demanding workloads where massive amounts of data are generated,” said Charles Liang, president and CEO of SMCI.

“Our building block architecture allows us to design and deliver a wide range of AI servers that give enterprises the solutions they need, from the edge to the cloud. Our new Intel Atom-based edge systems contain up to 16GB of memory, dual 2.5 GbE LAN ports, and a NANO SIM card slot, which enables AI inferencing at the edge where most of the world's data is generated,” Liang added.

Also, on March 19, Supermicro unveiled its newest lineup aimed at accelerating the deployment of generative AI. The Supermicro SuperCluster solutions offer foundational building blocks for the present and the future large language model (LLM) infrastructure.

The full-stack SuperClusters include air- and liquid-cooled training and cloud-scale inference rack configurations with the latest NVIDIA Tensor Core GPUs, Networking, and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software.

Further, SMCI announced new AI systems for large-scale generative AI featuring NVIDIA's next-generation of data center products, such as the latest NVIDIA GB200 Grace™ Blackwell Superchip, the NVIDIA B200 Tensor Core, and B100 Tensor Core GPUs.

Supermicro is upgrading its existing NVIDIA HGX™ H100/H200 8-GPU systems for seamless integration with the NVIDIA HGX™ B100 8-GPU, thus reducing time to delivery. Also, the company strengthens its broad NVIDIA MGX™ systems range with new offerings featuring the NVIDIA GB200, including the NVIDIA GB200 NVL72, a comprehensive rack-level solution equipped with 72 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs.

Additionally, Supermicro is introducing new systems to its portfolio, including the 4U NVIDIA HGX B200 8-GPU liquid-cooled system.

Solid Third-Quarter 2024 Results

For the third quarter that ended March 31, 2024, SMCI’s revenue increased 200.8% year-over-year to $3.85 billion. Its non-GAAP gross profit grew 163.9% from the year-ago value to $600.59 million. Its non-GAAP income from operations was $434.42 million, up 290.7% year-over-year.

The server assembler’s non-GAAP net income rose 340% from the prior year’s quarter to $411.54 million. Its non-GAAP net income per common share came in at $6.65, an increase of 308% year-over-year.

As of March 31, 2024, Super Micro Computer’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $2.12 billion, compared to $440.46 million as of June 30, 2023. The company’s total current assets were $8.06 billion versus $3.18 billion as of June 30, 2023.

Charles Liang, President and CEO of Supermicro, said, “Strong demand for AI rack scale PnP solutions, along with our team’s ability to develop innovative DLC designs, enabled us to expand our market leadership in AI infrastructure. As new solutions ramp, including fully production ready DLC, we expect to continue gaining market share.”

Raised Full-Year Revenue Outlook

SMCI expects net sales of $5.10 billion to $5.50 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 ending June 30, 2024. The company’s non-GAAP net income per share is anticipated to be between $7.62 and $8.42.

For the fiscal year 2024, Supermicro raised its guidance for revenues from a range of $14.30 billion to $14.70 billion to a range of $14.70 billion to $15.10 billion. Its non-GAAP net income per share is expected to be from $23.29 to $24.09.

CEO Charles Liang said he expects AI growth to remain solid for several quarters, if not years, to come. To support this rapid growth, the company had to raise capital through a secondary offering this year, Liang added.

Meanwhile, finance chief David Weigand said that the company’s supply chain continues to improve.

Bottom Line

SMCI’s fiscal 2024 third-quarter results were exceptional, with a record revenue of $3.85 billion and a non-GAAP EPS of $6.65. This year-over-year revenue growth of 200% and year-over-year non-GAAP EPS growth of 308% significantly outpaced its industry peers.

After reporting outstanding financial performance, the company raised its full-year revenue forecast as it points to solid AI demand.

Super Micro Computer, which joined the S&P 500 in March, has a unique edge among server manufacturers aiming to capitalize on the generative AI boom. Notably, the server maker’s close ties with Nvidia allow it to launch products superior to competitors, including Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE).

The company has a history of being among the first to receive AI chips from NVDA and AMD as it assists them in checking server prototypes, giving it a head start over rivals. This has positioned SMCI as a key supplier of servers crucial for generative AI applications, leading to a remarkable 192% surge in shares so far this year.

According to an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, Hans Mosesmann, “Super Micro has developed a model that is very, very quick to market. They usually have the widest portfolio of products when a new product comes out from Nvidia or AMD or Intel.”

Moreover, analysts at Bank of America project that SMCI’s share of the AI server market will expand to around 17% in 2026 from 10% in 2023. Argus analyst Jim Kelleher also seems bullish about SMCI. Kelleher maintained a Buy rating on SMCI’s stock.

According to the analyst, Super Micro Computer is a leading server provider for the era of generative AI. Alongside a comprehensive range of rack and blade servers for cloud, enterprise, data center, and other applications, SMCI offers GPU-based systems for deep learning, high-performance computing, and various other applications.

Given solid financials, accelerating profitability, and robust near-term growth outlook, investors could consider buying this stock for substantial gains.

Alibaba's (BABA) Valuation: Uncovering Opportunities in a Discounted Market

Posted on by The INO.com Team

With a $187.28 billion market cap, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is a China-based technology company that provides infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, and other businesses engage with their users internationally. Last Friday, BABA’s stock notched the seventh consecutive session of gains, marking the longest winning streak in a year.

The e-commerce giant's shares surged more than 3% over the past month, compared to the S&P 500’s nearly 3.3% loss. Also, the stock has soared approximately 1% over the past five days, beating the S&P’s marginal loss.

From a valuation perspective, BABA is trading at a forward non-GAAP P/E multiple of 9.03, 41% lower than the industry average of 15.32. Likewise, the stock’s forward EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT of 5.46x and 8.79x are favorably compared to the industry averages of 9.42x and 13.57x, respectively.

In addition, in terms of forward Price/Book, the stock is trading at 1.33x, 43.2% lower than the industry average of 2.34x.

Alibaba’s stock trading at a discount compared to its peers can be an intriguing opportunity for value-oriented investors. However, analyzing several quantitative and qualitative factors is crucial before making investment decisions.

Now, let’s discuss BABA’s fundamentals and growth prospects in detail:

Financial Performance Overview

For the fiscal 2024 fourth quarter that ended December 31, 2023, BABA’s revenue increased 5.1% year-over-year to $36.67 billion. Revenue from the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group grew 43.8% year-over-year, while Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Limited and Digital Media and Entertainment Group rose 23.7% and 18.3%, respectively.

The tech giant’s adjusted EBITA came in at $7.44 billion, up 1.5% from the prior year’s quarter. However, its non-GAAP net income for the quarter declined 4.1% year-over-year to $6.75 billion. It posted non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.33, down 2% year-over-year.

Alibaba’s total assets stand at $256.80 billion, with significant holdings in cash, investments, and operational assets. The company reported cash and cash equivalents of $35.89 billion and short-term investments of $42.31 billion.

“We delivered a solid quarter as we are executing our focused strategies across the organization. Our top priority is to reignite the growth of our core businesses, e-commerce and cloud computing. We will step up investment to improve users’ core experiences to drive growth in Taobao and Tmall Group and strengthen market leadership in the coming year,” said Eddie Wu, Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group.

“We will also focus our resources on developing public cloud products and sustaining the strong growth momentum in international commerce business,” Wu added.

Upsize of Share Buyback Program

BABA announced that its board of directors approved an increase of $25 billion to its share repurchase program through the end of March 2027. During the quarter that ended March 31, 2024, the company repurchased a total of 524 million ordinary shares for a total of $4.80 billion.

For the fiscal year that ended March 2024, Alibaba repurchased around 1,249 million ordinary shares for a total of $12.50 billion. As of March 31, 2024, the Chinese e-commerce firm had 19,469 million ordinary shares outstanding, a net decrease of 520 million ordinary shares versus December 31, 2023, or a net reduction of 2.6% in its outstanding shares after accounting for shares issued under its ESOP.

As of March 31, 2024, the company has $31.90 billion available under its share repurchase program, effective through March 2027.

The increase in BABA’s share repurchase program demonstrates its confidence in the outlook for its business and cash flow.

“Our consistent share repurchase has also reduced outstanding share count while achieving EPS and cash flow per share accretion,” said Toby Xu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group.

Reorganization

Over the past year, Alibaba underwent significant changes, including restructuring efforts.

Daniel Zhang, the previous CEO of Alibaba Group, who became acting head of the cloud business in December 2022, unexpectedly resigned in September last year.

In March 2023, BABA announced plans to split its business into six separate units in a move to unlock shareholder value and advance competitiveness. The company’s restructuring resulted in the creation of six distinct business units, some of which will be able to go public and raise external funding.

Among those being touted for initial public offerings (IPOs) were Alibaba’s cloud unit, Cainiao logistics arm, and Freshippo grocery arm. However, Alibaba decided to cancel the highly anticipated spinoff of its cloud computing business last year.

Joe Tsai, chairman of BABA, mentioned during the last earnings call that while the company will explore separate financing options, generating synergies within the Alibaba ecosystem remains a priority to reflect the group's overall value. Tsai also emphasized that Alibaba is not rushing into these transactions and will consider market conditions before proceeding.

Strategic Initiatives

On April 17, 2024, Alibaba.com, a leading platform for global business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce, introduced its affordable, customizable Logistics Marketplace, offering U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) access to affordable and customizable logistics services to streamline their supply chains and gain global reach with more ease.

On January 9, Alibaba.com introduced its latest Smart Assistant features powered by AI at CES in Las Vegas, NV. The Smart Assistant is an AI-powered sourcing tool that caters to newcomers and seasoned entrepreneurs in the dynamic world of global commerce, helping them discover new opportunities, stay up-to-date on trends, seamlessly track orders, and more.

Also, in the same month, Alibaba Cloud unveiled its new generation of elastic computing instance specification family ECS g8i. ECS g8i instances will offer high-quality and efficient computing services for customers in industries like games, e-commerce, finance, medical care, and enterprise services to meet their performance needs in application scenarios, including in-depth learning, AI reasoning training, and big data.

On October 31 last year, Alibaba Cloud announced its latest large language model (LLM), Tongyi Qianwen 2.0. This is a substantial upgrade from its predecessor, launched in April. Tongyi Qianwen 2.0 demonstrates outstanding capabilities in understanding complex instructions, copywriting, memorizing, reasoning, and preventing hallucinations.

With this upgraded version of its AI model, the company looks to compete with U.S. rivals such as Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT).

Alibaba also unveiled the GenAI Service Platform, which allows companies to build their own generative AI applications using their data.

Bottom Line

While BABA reported mixed financials in the last quarter, it announced an increase in the size of its share buyback program by $25 billion, creating a greater value for its shareholders. The boost to the buyback program demonstrates the company’s confidence in its business outlook and cash flow.

Moreover, AliExpress order volume rose by 60% year-over-year for the third quarter. This solid performance contributed to a staggering 44% year-over-year growth in Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group’s revenue, surpassing market expectations for the sixth straight quarter. AliExpress’ Choice, a premium service launched in March 2023, is the catalyst behind this strong growth.

Alibaba’s Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Limited and Digital Media and Entertainment Group further grew by around 23% and 18%, respectively.

Over the past five years, BABA’s revenue and EBITDA grew at CAGRs of 21.9% and 16%, respectively. The company’s net income and EPS rose at respective CAGRs of 7.6% and 7.8% over the same timeframe. Its total assets increased at 14.7% CAGR over the same period.

Besides, BABA’s trailing-12-month EBIT margin of 13.74% is 79.8% higher than the 7.64% industry average. Moreover, the stock’s trailing-12-month net income margin and levered FCF margin of 10.81% and 15.77% are significantly higher than the industry averages of 4.57% and 5.53%, respectively.

The Chinese internet giant is set to report its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2024, before the market opens on May 14, 2024. Analysts expect BABA’s revenue for the fourth quarter to increase 2.6% year-over-year to $30.37 billion. However, the company’s EPS for the same period is expected to decline by 6.3% year-over-year to $1.43.

For the fiscal year 2024, Street expects BABA’s revenue and EPS to grow 5.4% and 9.1% from the prior year to $130.09 billion and $8.46, respectively.

Moving forward, the China-based tech company’s primary focus is on revitalizing the growth of its core businesses, mainly e-commerce and cloud computing. The company will increase its investments to enhance users’ core experiences, boost growth in Taobao and Tmall Group, and solidify its market leadership in the upcoming year.

Alibaba has a substantial amount of net cash and investments on its balance sheet, providing investors with a safety cushion. This solid cash position can be used for strategic investments, acquisitions, and business expansion, enhancing the company's growth prospects in the long term.

In conclusion, BABA’s current discounted market position presents an attractive opportunity for value-oriented investors. Conducting a thorough analysis of the company's financial health, growth prospects, and competitive landscape can help investors make informed investment decisions and benefit from the long-term upside potential of the stock.

Top China Stock Picks to Buy Amid Economic Boom

Posted on by The INO.com Team

China's economy surged beyond projections at the start of 2024, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) escalating by 5.3% in the first quarter, an increase from the previous quarter's 5.2%, as the National Bureau of Statistics reported. The world's second-largest economy embraced a familiar strategy: significant investment in its manufacturing domain to invigorate growth.

This included a spree of new factories, propelling global sales of solar panels, electric vehicles, and various other products. Industrial production saw a 6.1% leap in the first quarter compared to the previous year, driven by robust expansion in high-tech manufacturing.

Notably, the production of 3D printing equipment, electric vehicle charging stations, and electronic components surged by approximately 40% year-on-year. Moreover, last month, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) expanded for the first time in six months, while the Caixin/S&P PMI reached its highest level in over a year, buoyed by increased overseas demand.

That said, China has established an annual growth target of approximately 5% for 2024. Additionally, authorities have implemented interest rate cuts to stimulate bank lending and expedited central government spending to bolster infrastructure investment.

Given this backdrop, investors can leverage the economy's solid momentum by considering buying fundamentally robust Chinese stocks poised to deliver substantial returns.

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD), the e-commerce operator behind Pinduoduo and Temu, has rocked both the Chinese and U.S. e-commerce sectors with outstanding earnings and upbeat long-term prospects. The company primarily focuses on bringing businesses and people into the digital economy. Its market capitalization stands at $164.93 billion.

For the fourth quarter that ended December 31, 2023, PDD’s total revenues increased 123.2% year-over-year to $12.52 billion. Its non-GAAP operating profit rose 146% from the year-ago value to $3.46 billion. Its non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders and non-GAAP earnings per ADS were $3.59 billion and $2.40, up 110.4% and 71.7% year-over-year, respectively.

Furthermore, cash inflows from operating activities for the quarter came in at $5.20 billion, an increase of 38.9% from the prior year’s quarter, primarily due to the surge in net income. Such financial prowess solidifies the company’s position in the market and sets a high bar for competitors.

Lei Chen, co-CEO of PDD, hailed 2023 as a “pivotal chapter,” attributing Pinduoduo's resilience in a sluggish Chinese economy and Temu’s burgeoning popularity in the U.S. to the company's strategic prowess. As Pinduoduo's affordable offerings resonate with value-conscious consumers amid economic uncertainties, the company's trajectory is becoming even more compelling.

Looking ahead, analysts expect PDD’s revenue to increase 97.8% year-over-year to $10.54 billion for the first quarter ended March 2024, and its EPS is expected to grow 47.8% year-over-year to $1.45. Moreover, the company has an impressive earnings surprise history as it surpassed consensus revenue and EPS estimates in all four trailing quarters.

Furthermore, for the fiscal year 2024, Street expects PDD’s revenue and EPS to increase 49.4% and 30.9% from the prior year to $51.37 billion and $8.45, respectively.

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU), a Chinese tech company specializing in Internet-related services, products, and artificial intelligence (AI), recently unveiled an array of cutting-edge AI models and toolkits. These advancements democratize AI development, empowering individuals of all skill levels to create transformative applications, a move poised to elevate BIDU's standing in the AI arena significantly.

One standout is ERNIE, BIDU's flagship AI model, renowned for its versatility across various applications. ERNIE Bot, a conversational AI bot built on this framework, has swiftly garnered 200 million users since its launch in March 2023, handling a staggering 200 million daily queries.

Baidu Comate, another innovation powered by ERNIE, has catalyzed innovation by contributing to 27% of new code within BIDU, serving over 10,000 companies, with an impressive 46% adoption rate. Additionally, Qianfan, BIDU AI Cloud's FM platform, has enabled over 85,000 enterprises to develop 190,000 AI applications, showcasing BIDU's wide-reaching impact in the industry.

BIDU's financial performance mirrors these technological triumphs. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, the company’s revenue grew 5.7% year-over-year to $4.92 billion. Its non-GAAP operating income surged by 8.9% from the year-ago value to $996 million, and its non-GAAP net income experienced a 44.4% year-over-year growth, reaching $1.09 billion.

Moreover, BIDU’s adjusted EBITDA showed significant improvement, increasing by 10% year-over-year to $1.28 billion.

Analysts foresee a promising growth trajectory for BIDU. Wall Street expects the company’s revenue to increase 6.3% year-over-year to $19.87 billion for the fiscal year ending in December 2024, accompanied by an estimated EPS of $10.74. Furthermore, BIDU surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four trailing quarters, which is remarkable.

For the fiscal year 2025, the company’s revenue and EPS are anticipated to grow 7.9% and 10% year-over-year to $21.43 billion and $11.82, respectively. These optimistic projections underscore BIDU's unwavering commitment to innovation and its potential for sustained success in the dynamic landscape of AI technology.

Baozun Inc. (BZUN)

Baozun Inc. (BZUN), a premier brand e-commerce solution provider and digital commerce enabler, has fortified omnichannel capabilities and expanded core product categories through high-level engagements. Collaborating with brand partners and key marketplaces, the company has crafted effective go-to-market strategies, acquiring over 50 new brands in 2023.

Implementing a new store concept transitioning from large-scale to boutique formats, BZUN enhances brand DNA and fosters immersive brand experiences beyond mere commercial transactions. In-store pop-ups and campaigns are further amplifying social engagement, enriching consumer experiences.

In addition, in January, the company authorized a new share repurchase program, allowing the repurchase of up to $20 million worth of outstanding American depositary shares (ADSs) and Class A ordinary shares over the ensuing 12 months, starting January 24, 2024.

During the fiscal 2023 fourth-quarter earnings call, BZUN unveiled the inauguration of 10 new stores, including a flagship in Guangzhou, alongside expansions in Shantou, Shenzhen, and Beijing. Notably, square meter efficiency surged 50% for newly opened stores, with existing ones witnessing a remarkable 19% spike in same-store sales.

For the fourth quarter that ended December 31, 2023, BZUN reported an 8.9% year-over-year surge in total net revenues to $391.61 million, marking a significant turnaround from the previous year's loss. The company posted an adjusted operating profit for E-Commerce of $16.60 million for the quarter.

Mr. Vincent Qiu, BZUN’s Chairman and CEO, said, “In 2023, we started our transformation journey, expanding into three business divisions. Throughout the year, we solidified our leadership in the digital commerce industry, and further enhanced operational efficiency. I am grateful for the resilience and adaptability demonstrated by the Baozun team amid the ever-changing market environment.”

“Looking ahead to 2024, despite macro uncertainties, we remain committed to sustainably executing our plans with diligence and patience. The improved health of our business fundamentals gives us confidence to enhance value proposition to our brand partners,” he added.

For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Street expects BZUN’s revenue to increase 3.2% year-over-year to $1.26 billion. Similarly, the company’s revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is estimated to grow 6.9% from the previous year to $1.35 billion.

Bottom Line

While U.S. stocks may offer stability in tumultuous times, diversifying into international stocks can yield significant benefits, especially in terms of portfolio risk management and solid returns. Financial advisors often advocate for familiarity with American companies, yet venturing into global markets, particularly China, can broaden investment horizons and unlock new opportunities.

This is because China is poised to reclaim its global significance, as per Bloomberg's analysis of IMF forecasts. Projections suggest China's economic resurgence will surpass the combined growth of the G-7 nations. China is anticipated to lead with an estimated 21% contribution to global economic growth from now through 2029.

In comparison, the G-7 nations are expected to contribute approximately 20%, while the U.S. falls short with 12%, nearly half of China's projected growth. Remarkably, 75% of global growth will originate from only 20 countries, with China, India, the U.S., and Indonesia accounting for over half of this expansion.

Investors can capitalize on this dynamic economic landscape by exploring fundamentally strong Chinese stocks poised for substantial returns. Among these, PDD, with its meteoric rise in e-commerce, BIDU, leveraging cutting-edge AI innovations, and BZUN, a leading brand e-commerce solution provider, stand out.

These stocks’ impressive financial performances, strategic initiatives, and optimistic growth projections make them compelling investment options for investors seeking exposure to the thriving Chinese economy.