Tag: risk management

Energy-Focused Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) Require Risk Management

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Energy-focused master limited partnerships (MLPs) have provided investors good returns over time, much better than owning crude oil futures. For example, from January 200 through July 2016, the Alerian Total Return Index (PACF:AMZX), a leading gauge of energy MLPs, provided a return of 867%, far exceeded the return from crude futures of about 63%.

However, there is reasonably strong correlation between AMZX and crude futures prices. As a result, AMZX has suffered some large drawdowns. It maximum drop from peak-to-valley (P2V) was 58% over the period mentioned above. I use P2V as my primary risk measurement because it shows how large a loss one may experience in a buy-and-hold strategy.

I tested hedging AMZX by maintaining a short position in crude futures. The risk-minimizing hedge ratio for crude futures was -17% but it only reduced the maximum P2V to 50% (see Hedged return in graph below).

Chart of AMZX, Crude Futures and Hedged

I therefore applied the risk management process I developed to determine when to be invested in AMZX and when to go to cash. I provide the citations for the mathematical formulae and back-tested results for anyone interested in utilizing this process below. Continue reading "Energy-Focused Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) Require Risk Management" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,326 an ounce while currently trading at 1,322 down slightly for the trading week. I’ve been recommending a short position from the 1,333 level and then adding more contracts around 1,320 as I still remain bearish while placing my stop loss above the 10-day high which stands at 1,346 as the chart structure has improved tremendously this week. Gold prices have hit 1,306 on 3 different occasions, and if that is broken, I do believe the all-out bear market could get ugly to the downside as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is lower. Gold prices reacted sharply higher off of the construed negative monthly unemployment report adding 150,000 jobs which were slightly below consensus estimates. However, the U.S dollar has reversed as gold prices were about $17 higher, but currently only up about $5 which happened last Friday as well. The chart structure in gold will not improve for another 5 days, so you’re going to have to accept the monetary risk at this point. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the October contract are trading higher by 50 cents this Friday afternoon in New York after settling last Friday at 49.11 while currently trading at 47.85 down about $1.50 for the trading week still hovering right near a 7 high. Oil prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this commodity as the chart structure is very poor at present as I’m waiting for the monetary risk to be lowered so I will be patient. The market today reacted off the Federal Reserve’s announcement that they probably will not raise interest rates sending many commodities higher while also sending the U.S dollar slightly lower today as it certainly looks to me that interest rates are going to be low for a long period of time. However, oversupply issues of crude oil is what is hampering this market at the current time. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Mexican Peso Futures

The Mexican Peso in the September contract settled last Friday at 5462 while currently trading at 5460 basically unchanged for the trading week while trading lower for the 2nd consecutive day down about 50 points this Friday afternoon as I am looking at entering into a bullish position come Monday’s trade. The 10 day low at the present time stands at 5305 which is risking around $900 per contract plus slippage and commission but come Monday’s trade that will be raised to 5358 risking less than $500 per contract plus slippage and commission as I will be patient and look for an entry point come Monday morning. The Peso is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as I think this recent pullback in price is due to the tremendous rally we’ve had in the month of August as I still think the bullish trend is still intact. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 41.60 a barrel while currently trading at 41.10 basically unchanged for the trading week as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time as prices are right near a 4 month low. Prices have dropped about $10 over the last 2 months as massive supplies continue to hamper prices as I still think a bottom has not been created and if you are short this market my stop loss would be above the 10 day high which stands at 43.39 as prices are still trading below its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower. At present I have very few trade recommendations as I took the month of July off, but I am keeping a close eye on many different sectors as I think we will be involved in many trades very soon. The trend is lower and as the commodity trader I always believe that must be a trend follower as trading with path of least resistance is the most successful way to trade over the course of time. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →