The energy sector in 2024 finds itself at the intersection of intensifying geopolitical conflicts and evolving market dynamics. In the Middle East, tensions remain high, with key oil producers like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel facing intermittent conflicts that could disrupt energy supplies. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to impact the global energy supply chain, keeping European and global natural gas prices volatile. In addition to this, OPEC’s ongoing management of output remains a critical factor in stabilizing or destabilizing oil prices.
Amid this turbulence, energy investors are seeking safe havens, and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stands out. Its global reach, diverse energy portfolio, and adaptability in transitioning towards cleaner energy alternatives could make it a more resilient option in a precarious energy market.
Let’s explore why ExxonMobil could be your best energy pick this year.
ExxonMobil’s Strategic Positioning: Mitigating Risks Through Global Reach
ExxonMobil has established itself as a global energy giant with operations across key oil and natural gas regions, including North America, Africa, and the Middle East. This geographical diversity has allowed the company to mitigate risks from localized disruptions. A key example is Exxon’s ongoing success in Guyana and the Permian Basin, where it has achieved record production levels. This strategic balancing of assets ensures steady output even when geopolitical shocks threaten some regions.
In addition to its fossil fuel ventures, ExxonMobil is also investing heavily in renewable energy technologies, particularly carbon capture and storage (CCS). The company’s carbon capture initiatives have set industry benchmarks, with a recent agreement to store 5.5 million metric tons of CO2 per year. These innovations not only align with global decarbonization efforts but also position ExxonMobil for long-term growth, irrespective of traditional energy sector volatility.
Energy Sector Outlook: Oil Prices, OPEC, and the Energy Transition
The energy market remains volatile, with oil prices staying between $60 to $80 per barrel. OPEC’s continued influence over supply means that any decisions to cut or boost production can swing prices significantly. For ExxonMobil, however, this volatility plays a role in its strengths. The company's increased focus on “advantaged assets,” such as its growing production from Guyana and the Permian Basin, provides a buffer against sudden price drops.
ExxonMobil’s heavy investments in energy transition also stand out. From the development of virtually carbon-free hydrogen to Proxxima™, a product that transforms lower-value gasoline molecules into high-performance resins, ExxonMobil is not just a fossil fuel player anymore. Its energy transition investments not only hedge against future regulatory risks but also attract new markets with high margins. This strategic shift gives ExxonMobil a crucial edge over other energy majors that are slower to adapt.
ExxonMobil vs. Competitors: A Clear Winner in Risk Management and Renewables
When compared to its closest competitors like Chevron Corporation (CVX) and BP p.l.c. (BP), ExxonMobil's positioning in both fossil fuels and renewable technologies is more robust. Chevron has similarly diversified, focusing on U.S. shale and renewable natural gas, but it lacks Exxon’s scale in regions like Guyana and its aggressive moves into CCS. BP, meanwhile, has taken an ambitious turn towards renewables, but its focus on divesting from oil and gas has come at the cost of reduced cash flow from its upstream segment.
ExxonMobil, by contrast, manages geopolitical risk more effectively through its wide geographic spread, diverse asset portfolio, and continued dominance in oil and gas production. While it remains committed to energy transition, it hasn’t shed its traditional revenue sources prematurely, giving it the financial flexibility that BP currently lacks.
Investor Takeaway: Why ExxonMobil Stands Out
Given the current geopolitical environment, ExxonMobil stands out as a compelling investment in the energy sector. Its strong second-quarter earnings of $9.2 billion, supported by record production and cash flow, underscores its financial resilience. Furthermore, Exxon’s aggressive capital expenditures, totaling $28 billion for the year, suggest the company is gearing up for sustained growth in both traditional and renewable sectors.
The combination of solid dividends—$4.3 billion distributed in the second quarter alone—and a robust share buyback program offers stability in volatile times. In a world where energy prices can be thrown into disarray by geopolitical shocks, Exxon’s diversified and well-balanced portfolio is likely to provide both stability and growth potential.
