Tag: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for October, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.807 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dropped by 11 million barrels in September to 2.882 billion, 24 million barrels higher than a year ago.

For the balance of 2019, OECD inventories are projected to rise, on balance. The third quarter seasonal stock draw was 26 million barrels. And stocks are projected to rise by 6 million in the fourth quarter, ending the year at 2.878 billion barrels, 15 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build by 59 million barrels to end the year at 2.937 billion.

The EIA estimated that OPEC production fell by 1.55 million barrels per day in September, most of which was in Saudi Arabia due to the attack on its oil facilities. It is estimating that OPEC production will average about 29.69 million in October, due to the rebound by Aramco. For 2020, it estimates that OPEC production will average about 29.62 million, above the call (demand) for OPEC oil in 2020. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, October 2019" →

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.805 billion barrels. It estimated stocks edged 1 million barrels higher in August to 2.895 billion, 43 million barrels higher than a year ago.

For the balance of 2019, OECD inventories are projected to rise, on balance. The third quarter seasonal stock draw was over in July. Third-quarter stocks are projected to rise by 2 million, instead of the seasonal draw. And stocks are projected to rise by 6 million in the fourth quarter, ending the year at 2.911 billion barrels, 50 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 67 million barrels to end the year at 2.978 billion.

The EIA has confirmed that OPEC production edged higher (23,000 b/d) in August v. July. It is also estimating that OPEC production will average about 29.6 million in 2020, and that figure is about 400,000 b/d higher than OPEC’s August estimate of the call (demand) for OPEC oil in 2020. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, September 2019" →

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for August, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.805 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dropped 16 million barrels in July to 2.887 billion, 61 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, for the balance of 2019, OECD inventories are projected to rise, on balance. The third quarter seasonal stock draw is over. At year-end, EIA projects 2019 to be at 2.901 million barrels, 40 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 58 million barrels to end the year at 2.959 billion.

The EIA has revised its estimates for future OPEC production down significantly, given the sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. For much of the balance of 2019 and 2020, it expects OPEC production to remain under 30 million barrels per day. July was reported at 29.61 mmbd. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, August 2019" →

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for July, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.805 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dipped by 4 million barrels in June 2019 to 2.902 billion, 97 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are no longer expected to rise any further, on balance. At year-end, EIA projects 2019 to be with 2.899 million barrels, 37 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 35 million barrels to end the year at 2.934 billion.

The EIA has revised its estimates for future OPEC production down significantly, given the sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. For much of the balance of 2019 and 2020, it expects OPEC production to remain under 30 million barrels per day. June was reported at 29.8 mmbd.

OPEC has revised its call (demand) for OPEC oil. For 2020, the average is 29.2 mmbd. Therefore, OPEC must cut supply by another 550,000 b/d from June next year just to balance stocks. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2019" →

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for June, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It estimated stocks rose by 38 million barrels in May to 2.902 billion, 84 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are no longer expected to rise any further. At year-end, EIA projects 2019 to be with 2.871 million barrels, 10 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 49 million barrels to end the year at 2.920 billion.

The EIA has revised its estimates for future OPEC production down significantly, given the sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. For much of the balance of 2019 and 2020, it expects OPEC production to remain under 30 million barrels per day. U.S. shale is expected to capture market share from OPEC. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2019" →