Tag: noah kiedrowski

Facebook Continues Double-Digit Growth - $200 Soon?

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) recently announced Q3 FY2017 earnings and once again delivered phenomenal growth numbers across the business with beats on both top and bottom lines with revenue of $10.33 billion and EPS of $1.59 translating into beats of $490 million and $0.31, respectively. Total revenue and net income were up 47% and 79%, respectively. Previously, I authored an article and put forth my thesis that Facebook was the preferred FANG stock, collectively comprised of Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOG), considering its growth and valuation relative to its FANG cohort. The Q2 FY2017 earnings reinforced this thesis. Facebook had been on an uptrend heading into earnings and broke through the $182 level.

The stock declined after the earnings call due to talk that the company will increase expenses to beef up its security workforce to combat “abuse on our platforms, ” and as a result, the stock sold off a bit to settle at $179 the next day. The stock has had a tremendous run YTD and is up 55.5%. These numbers may seem staggering, and some may contend that buying at these levels would be cashing the stock. Even at these levels and YTD appreciation, factoring in Facebook’s projected growth with technology comparators such as Google, Netflix, and Amazon, collectively known as the FANG stocks, Facebook is far superior with a lower risk profile. Facebook’s projected growth is more significant than Google’s yet has a P/E ratio that’s in-line with Google’s and a fraction of Amazon’s and Netflix’s. I feel that Facebook represents value even after this massive run and I maintain my long thesis. Continue reading "Facebook Continues Double-Digit Growth - $200 Soon?" →

Visa's Growth Slowdown Has Begun

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Final FY2017 numbers have been reported for Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) and FY2018 is now underway. I previously wrote an article proposing my thesis that growth will slow (not stop) starting with Q1 FY2018 numbers and now that FY2017 is in the books, I’ll be taking a clinical approach into this thesis as we approach Q1 FY18 numbers. As expected, Visa just recently reported another great quarter for Q4 FY2017 with beats on both the top and bottom line to round out the fiscal year. EPS and revenue estimates were beaten by $0.05 and $230 million, respectively. Visa had set new to all-time highs of ~$110 per share leading into the earnings report. Despite these beats on both the top and bottom line numbers, the stock responded in a relatively muted fashion. Investors have been accustomed to year-over-year quarterly growth in the double digits over the past year, specifically post Visa Europe acquisition and integration. For year-over-year revenue comparators post-Visa Europe integration, FYQ4 2016 growth was 19% followed by FY2017 revenue growth with FYQ1 at 25%, FYQ2 was 23%, FYQ3 was 26%, and FYQ4 was 14%.

FYQ4 2017 is a far departure from the previous four quarters of growth. Visa’s management is now forecasting revenue growth in the high single digits with EPS growth in the mid-teens, artificially high due to share buybacks. This forward-looking revenue growth rate is a shape divergence from the past year-plus revenue growth numbers investors were enjoying yet appears to be the new normal moving forward. As I posited previously, Visa’s growth rate will be slowing, now confirmed by Visa’s management and is thus misaligned with the stock’s 41% YTD appreciation, P/E ratio, PEG ratio and overall growth prospects. Continue reading "Visa's Growth Slowdown Has Begun" →

CVS: Walking Away - Amazon Effect Proving Too Great

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

I finally had to throw in the towel on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) and walk away from the stock. Since its all-time highs in 2015, several headwinds have negatively impacted its growth, and the changing marketplace conditions have plagued the stock. Exacerbating this downward movement from the factors above, Amazon (AMZN) has entered the fray and has resulted in another leg down for the stock. The latter half of 2015 and throughout 2016 the political backdrop was a major headwind for the entire pharmaceutical supply chain from drug manufacturers to pharmacies/pharmacy benefit managers (i.e., CVS and Walgreens (WBA)) and the drug wholesalers in-between (i.e. McKesson (MCK), Cardinal Health (CAH) and AmerisourceBergen (ABC)). Marketplace trends forced CVS to cut guidance for Q4 2016 and the full-year 2017 numbers. CVS stated that “unexpected marketplace actions that will have a negative impact on our Q4 2016 results and a more meaningful impact on our outlook for 2017”. CVS suffered a self-inflicted wound and lost a contract with the Department of Defense which carries tens of millions of prescriptions on an annual basis. A new restricted network relationship between Prime Therapeutics and Walgreens impacts CVS Pharmacy’s participation in selected fully-insured networks in several key states, and many cases make CVS Pharmacy a non-preferred provider for Medicare Part D as well. These prescriptions tend to be the most profitable prescriptions as well. Lastly, Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods and behind the scenes moves in the healthcare space has incited rumors that Amazon is looking to gain entry into the pharmacy space via leveraging the Whole Foods physical footprint of storefronts. I’ve written several articles contending that CVS presents a compelling investment opportunity in the ever-expanding healthcare space. My investment thesis was based on an aging population, growth in long-term care facilities and the pharmacy benefit management segment. All of this in a backdrop of CVS being highly acquisitive, continuing to deliver earnings growth, revenue growth, growing dividends and has an aggressive share buyback program in place. The wildcard may be the Amazon threat with its first real pivot after acquiring Whole Foods with subsequent potential in entering the pharmacy space as well.
Continue reading "CVS: Walking Away - Amazon Effect Proving Too Great" →

IBB - A Clearer Runway Ahead

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

The Biotechnology cohort has finally made up much of the lost ground during the pummeling from both sides of the political aisle during the 2016 presidential race. Tweets and excerpts during the campaign trail from Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump put the biotech cohort through the wringer via aiming for drug pricing. The sustained sell-off lead to the entire cohort to sell off from all-time highs of $400 to $240 or 40% in only 6 months as measured via the iShares Biotechnology Index ETF (NASDAQ:IBB). From February of 2016 through June of 2017 IBB traded in a tight range from $250 to $300 while Donald Trump continually fired shots against the healthcare sector. Any healthcare related stocks became volatile on the heels of any statement or tweet from Donald Trump. Shortly after the inauguration, Trump stated that drug companies are “getting away with murder” when speaking to the drug pricing issue. As the proposed healthcare legislation appears to be dead as of now, a level of certainty has entered the picture, and the drug pricing threats are not perceived to be as bad as initially feared. Recently the index has had a resurgence moving to a 52-week high of $335 with a much clearer runway ahead as the political headwinds continue to abate. As the confluence of abating political threats, drug pricing certainty, and continuity of the current healthcare backdrop, I feel the index has room to continue its upward trend and retrace its 2015 level of $400. Continue reading "IBB - A Clearer Runway Ahead" →

Are You Looking To Turn Politics Into Profits?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We are proud to introduce our free, bi-weekly newsletter, Political Plays!

Teaming up with longtime Traders Blog contributor, Noah Kiedrowski, INO.com’s Political Plays will help traders and investors bridge the gap between Washington and Wall Street, and give actionable stock plays driven by political action, one newsletter at a time.

While it’s nothing new, traders often discount the connection between political actions and their financial reaction.

Noah will cover political topics and stocks related to:

  • Healthcare
  • Proposed border tax
  • Net neutrality
  • Marijuana legalization
  • Military funding and weapons development
  • The list could go on and on…

All major political discussions are a source of opportunity for investors, as some stocks will soar, or sink, as a result of what happens on the Hill.

Noah will dig through the complicated bills and wade through political discussion to deliver an easy-to-understand recap with actionable trading ideas to give you a head start on the market’s movement.

Sign Up To Receive Political Plays

While everyone else is looking to pick a side, Noah is just looking for profits.

Get to know Noah in the Traders Blog and learn more about Political Plays.

Best,
The INO.com Team


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