Facebook's Moat Undeniable

Facebook (FB) is fresh off a strong earnings report, which underscores its massive moat in the social media space. Facebook has faced several public relations challenges over the past couple of years (i.e., Cambridge Analytica, coordinated boycotts, government inquiries into privacy, jumbled earnings calls, and anti-competitive testimonies). Exacerbating these public relation issues has been the COVID-19 backdrop, both domestically and abroad. As companies scale back advertising spending amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Facebook continues to grow across all business segments, with its user base continuing to expand slowly. Facebook’s moat is undeniable, and any meaningful sell-off could provide an entry point for the long-term investor.

Recent Advertising Boycotts

Facebook faced a very public onslaught of companies joining an advertising boycott across its social media platforms. However, its latest earnings suggest that this effort may have been largely symbolic and virtually inconsequential to its revenue and growth numbers. The advertising boycott had grown to roughly a thousand groups and multinational companies. This presented a unique challenge that still has the potential to weigh heavier on the company since this boycott will directly impact revenue as overall compliance/security expenses swell. The magnitude of this boycott may inevitably influence the stock price if this movement expands in sheer numbers and duration. However, as advertising spending is abandoned indefinitely until further notice due to this boycott and overall spend slows due to COVID-19, this culmination could cast uncertainty around its stock valuation. Continue reading "Facebook's Moat Undeniable"

CVS Finally Breaks Out

CVS Health (CVS) was not immune from the market declines inflicted by the COVID-19 downturn. Despite being in the traditional defensive healthcare space and confined to domestic operations, the stock could not break out and participate in the broader raging bull market post-COVID-19 lows. Despite a string of better than expected earnings, generating large amounts of free cash flow, paying down debt, and returning value to shareholders, the stock has up until recently been bogged down. The Aetna acquisition has been fully integrated while demonstrating robust earnings despite the COVID-19 backdrop. The company is finally getting some long-awaited respect on Wall Street, especially in conjunction with the positive vaccine developments. CVS has seen its stock rapidly appreciate as a function of strong company fundamentals and as a COVID-19 value rotation play. Despite the current stock appreciation, CVS still presents a compelling investment opportunity as the CVS-Aetna combination will drive shareholder value for years to come.

Perpetual Stock Slump

CVS has been in a perpetual stock slump with or without COVID-19 in the backdrop. CVS has been beaten down for years, plummeting by over 50% ($113 to $52) from its multi-year highs. Due to its recent breakout with strong company fundamentals and part of the COVID-19 value rotation, the stock has elevated to above $71. The company has posted a string of positive earnings with plenty of runway left in its growth from its Aetna acquisition. This was a bold and hefty price tag to pay yet necessary to compete in the increasingly competitive healthcare space, changing marketplace conditions, and political backdrop with drug pricing pressures. CVS made a defensive yet necessary acquisition to enable the company to go back on the offensive. The combination of CVS and Aetna was a bold and successful move after initial skepticism by investors. The CVS-Aetna combination will boost long-term growth prospects, restore growth, and fend off potential competition. This combination creates the first through-in-through healthcare company, combining CVS's pharmacies and PBM platform with Aetna's insurance business. The new CVS combines its existing pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) and retail pharmacies with the second-largest diversified healthcare company. Continue reading "CVS Finally Breaks Out"

Big Banks Moving Beyond COVID-19

Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Goldman Sachs (GS) are all fresh off earnings with the highly disruptive COVID-19 backdrop still festering. The headline numbers were fantastic with beats on both the top and bottom line for Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs, with Back of America missing on top-line revenue but beating on bottom-line profit. Big banks are evolving to the COVID-19 landscape domestically and abroad despite the possibility of widespread loan defaults, liquidity issues, ballooning credit card debt, and stressed mortgages. To exacerbate these COVID-19 impacts, interest rates, Federal Reserve actions, yield curve inversion, and liquidity are critical elements.

The business's customer side continues to be problematic as the pandemic's duration continues to drag on with no signs of slowing. A segment of the consumer base is faced with lost wages and the real possibility of not meeting their financial obligations, which will unquestionably have a negative impact on revenue and earnings. Capital preservation is now at the forefront, with share buybacks being halted and dividend payouts arrested. Large capital reserves have been put aside for anticipated financial challenges. The big banks have demonstrated their ability to evolve in the face of COVID-19 and present compelling value.

Post Financial Crisis - Big Banks Prepared

The big banks are far stronger and more prepared than they were during the 2008 Financial Crisis and have rigorous annual stress tests that maintain fiscal discipline. Banks are well capitalized and working with clients and consumers on payment deferrals if impacted by the pandemic. Continue reading "Big Banks Moving Beyond COVID-19"

CVS Stock Slump Despite Aetna Catalyst

CVS Health (CVS) wasn't immune from the market declines that were inflicted by the COVID-19 downturn. Despite being in the traditional defensive healthcare space and confined to domestic operations, the stock has not been able to break out and participate in the broader raging bull market post-CVOID-19 lows. The combination of CVS Health (CVS) and Aetna was proving to be a success after initial skepticism by investors. CVS even posted a string of better than expected quarters in part attributable to the Aetna acquisition. CVS is generating large amounts of free cash flow, paying down debt, and returning value to shareholders in a variety of ways. To further boost long-term growth prospects, restore growth, and fend off potential competition, CVS combined with Aetna. This combination creates the first through-in-through healthcare company, combining CVS's pharmacies and PBM platform with Aetna's insurance business. The new CVS combines its existing pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) and retail pharmacies with the second-largest diversified healthcare company.

CVS has been in a perpetual stock slump with or without COVID-19 in the backdrop. CVS has been beaten down for years, plummeting by over 50% ($113 to $52) from its multi-year highs. The stock currently sits at a bleak ~$58 per share and struggling to hold on to any share price appreciation despite the positive string of recent earnings with plenty of runway left in its growth from its Aetna acquisition. This was a bold and hefty price tag to pay yet necessary to compete in the increasingly competitive healthcare space, changing marketplace conditions, and political backdrop with drug pricing pressures. CVS made a defensive yet necessary acquisition to enable the company to go back on the offensive. At current levels, CVS presents a compelling investment opportunity; however, it has been a value trap for years despite the company still being in the early stages of its CVS-Aetna combination, which will drive shareholder returns for years to come.

Challenging Backdrop

The pharmaceutical supply chain cohort, specifically CVS, has been unable to obtain a firm footing in the backdrop of consolidation within the sector, negative legislative undertones, drug pricing pressures, rising insurance costs, and a market that has lost patience with these stocks. These factors culminated in sub-par growth with a level of uncertainty as the sector continued to face headwinds from multiple directions. Many of the stocks that comprised this cohort presented compelling valuations in a very frothy market. This allure had been a value trap as these stocks continued to disappoint. It's no secret that these companies have been faced with several headwinds that have negatively impacted the growth and the changing marketplace conditions have plagued these stocks. Continue reading "CVS Stock Slump Despite Aetna Catalyst"