Are the odds in your favor for an upmarket in July?

During the past four years the month of July has generally been a positive one for the U.S. stock market. In 2012 the market witnessed its smallest percentage gain of just 1.25% for the month of July. As you can see during the past four years the general trend has been positive for the market in July, but the percentage gains have been decreasing annually since '09. During the month of July, the average gain over the last 4 years has been a very positive 3.34%. With our monthly trade triangles still in a positive mode I expect the month of July to be flat to slightly positive for stocks.

Here are the monthly returns for July, beginning in 2009. Continue reading "Are the odds in your favor for an upmarket in July?"

U.S. economy adds 195K jobs

U.S. employers added 195,000 jobs in June and hiring was more robust in the two previous months than earlier estimated. The gains raise hopes for a stronger economy in the second half of 2013.

The Labor Department said Friday that the economy also added 20,000 more jobs in May and 50,000 more in April than initially reported. The unemployment rate stayed at 7.6 percent, but for a good reason: More people started looking for work. The government counts people as unemployed only if they are searching for jobs.

Americans' paychecks rose at a healthy pace and have outpaced inflation in the past year. Average hourly pay increased 10 cents to $24.01. That's 2.2 percent higher than a year ago. Over the 12 months ending in May, consumer prices rose 1.4 percent. Continue reading "U.S. economy adds 195K jobs"

U.S. unemployment benefit applications fall

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000 last week, a sign that layoffs remain low and companies are adding a modest number of jobs.

The four-week average, a less volatile figure, dipped just 750 to 345,500, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The average has fallen 9 percent in the past year.

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits are a proxy for layoffs. Since March, they have fluctuated roughly between 340,000 and 360,000, a level consistent with steady hiring.

On Friday, the government will issue its June jobs report. Economists forecast that it will show employers added 165,000 jobs, slightly below the 175,000 gain in May. The unemployment rate likely ticked down to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent. The economy has added an average of about 175,000 jobs per month for the last two years. Continue reading "U.S. unemployment benefit applications fall"

Stock market falls after reports of Egypt turmoil

The stock market turned negative in early afternoon trading Tuesday on news reports of political turmoil in Egypt.

Stocks had traded higher most of the day on positive news about the U.S. economy. But around 1:40 p.m. Eastern Daylight time, the market dipped below Monday's close. News emerged that Egypt's military had drawn up plans to suspend the country's constitution, dissolve its legislature and set up an interim government.

That development overshadowed good news about car sales, home prices and manufacturing, which led the market higher in the morning.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index had climbed as much as 9 points, or 0.6 percent, to 1,624. By 2:11 p.m. the stock index was down three points, or 0.2 percent, at 1612. Continue reading "Stock market falls after reports of Egypt turmoil"

Oil above $98 as protests rock Egypt government

The price of oil advanced past $98 a barrel Tuesday, underpinned by political unrest in Egypt that raised fears of disruption to global crude supplies.

By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for August delivery was up 37 cents to $98.36 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract jumped $1.43 to close at $97.99 on Monday.

After massive weekend protests in Egypt that continued Monday, the country's military issued an ultimatum to President Mohammed Morsi that gives him 48 hours to meet the demands of the millions who have taken to the streets seeking his ouster.

The ultimatum, rebuffed by Morsi, raised worries on both sides the military could outright take over, as it did after the 2011 ouster of autocrat Hosni Mubarak. It also raised the risk of a backlash from Morsi's Islamist backers, including his powerful Muslim Brotherhood and hard-liners, some of whom once belonged to armed militant groups. Continue reading "Oil above $98 as protests rock Egypt government"