"Saturday Seminars" - Advanced Fibonacci Applications and the Price Axis...

Advanced Fibonacci Applications and the Price Axis in the Forex, Stock Index, and Interest Rate Futures.

Joe’s techniques result in significantly higher percentages of winning trades through more accurate stop placement, market entry and profit objective location. Joe’s high-accuracy trading approach depends on the proper mix of both leading (Fibonacci) and lagging indicators.

You will learn where and how to apply Fibonacci analysis. This context determines the real bottom-line difference. Joe devotes a significant part of his lecture to trend analysis and directional techniques using variations of Stochastics, MACD and displaced moving averages. Technical analysis software packages can simulate all of these unique and specific variations through pre-programmed studies or by inserting the formulas Joe provides for you.

Joe will explain the three categories of a winning futures trading plan:

  • Management (Yourself & Your Capital)
  • A Competent Trend & Direction Analysis Tool
  • Proper Applications of Fibonacci Retracement & Objective Analysis

Joe DiNapoli is a veteran trader with over twenty-five years of solid market trading experience. He is also a dogged and thorough researcher, an internationally recognized lecturer, and a widely acclaimed author. Joe’s formal education was in electrical engineering and economics. He received his informal education in “the Bunker,” an aptly named trading room packed full of electronics and communications equipment. This is where most of Joe’s early research began. Joe is one of today’s most sought-after experts for his exhaustive investigations into displaced moving averages, his creation of the proprietary “Oscillator Predictor,” and in particular, his practical and unique method of applying Fibonacci ratios to the price axis. A registered CTA, Joe has taught his techniques in the major financial capitals of Europe and Asia, as well as in the United States. His articles have appeared in a wide variety of technical publications across the nation and worldwide. In 1996 alone, Joe taught capacity audiences in twenty-three financial centers around the globe. Joe was a contributing author to High Performance Futures Trading: Power Lessons From the Masters, selected 1990 book of the year by Super Trader’s Almanac. He also wrote the Fibonacci Money Management and Trend Analysis In-Home Trading Course, which has been lauded by professional and novice traders alike. Joe published his newest and most complete work, DiNapoli Levels, in 1997. The book has been hailed by Futures Truth as “one of the best new technical books to come along in a long time.” When Chuck LeBeau (Technical Traders Bulletin) asked his readers for names of successful traders they wanted to see interviewed, Joe DiNapoli’s name came up more often than any other. The Atlanta Constitution cited Joe’s work by referring to the “magical power” of Fibonacci ratios in the marketplace. Joe has often made use of this magic to make both startling and uncannily accurate market predictions, particularly in stock market indexes and interest rate futures. As the president of Coast Investment Software, Inc., located on Siesta Key in Sarasota, Florida, Joe continues to develop and deploy “high accuracy” trading methods, using a combination of leading and lagging indicators in unique and innovative ways. He conducts a limited number of private tutorials each year at his trading room and he also makes his trading approach available to others via software and trading course materials.

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For more audio and video seminars visit INO TV

Using Ratio Charts to Gain an Edge

Today’s guest blogger comes from Gary of Biiwii.com, a site that provides top notch analysis and commentary on stocks, currencies, commodities and bonds. I'm a frequent reader of the blog and HIGHLY encourage you to check out Gary's site for more analysis.

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Long time readers of the Biiwii.com blog know that I rely on ratio charts to the max. In fact, I find these ratios between different markets to be absolutely vital to being on the right side of the trade where macro themes are concerned. A recent example is the Dow/Gold ratio, which allowed me to navigate the oncoming - and entirely predictable - rally in stocks (both in nominal terms and in 'real' terms as measured in gold) that began in the fear filled days of March. Our April Letter from the main website, Reset/Recalibrate explained the process by which market sentiment needed to be reset. Here is the monthly ratio chart that was used in the letter:

Of interest now is the Gold/Oil Ratio, which appears to be in the bottoming process amid bullish divergence by RSI & MACD. This is an absolutely vital ratio to gold stock traders as oil is a major cost input to mining operations and with the likelihood of the ratio bottoming, gold miners' bottom lines stand to benefit as their product (gold) begins to outperform one of their major cost drivers (oil). Here is a current daily chart showing the status of the ratio. Gold, while having been pummeled in oil terms recently (along with nearly everything else), may well turn up from here in terms of crude:

I also routinely use the Gold/Silver Ratio to gauge general market confidence or lack thereof, along with more traditional sentiment indicators like the VIX and Put/Call Ratios. Other ratios which have appeared on the blog have included the S&P500/Nikkei Ratio, NDX/Dow and even SOX/NDX. All provide hints as to sentiment and/or macro-fundamentals and hence future market direction.

To summarize, you can trade any market but it is very important to be aware of the major trends and turning points between different markets and assets classes so that you may be aware of whether or not you are on the right side of the trade in the bigger picture. As traders and investors, we need every edge we can get.

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Read more Biiwii.com TA & Commentary by Gary at Biiwii.com

Forex Trading with the MACD

After receiving many requests, I've contacted the team from DayTradeology to help explain how to use MACD AND Forex. Please let me know what you think of the Guest Blog spot.

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The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line", is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals when trading the forex market.

First Some History

Developed by Gerald Appel, Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is one of the simplest and most reliable indicators available.

MACD uses moving averages, which are lagging indicators, to include some trend-following characteristics.

These lagging indicators are turned into a momentum oscillator by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average. The resulting plot forms a line that oscillates above and below zero, without any upper or lower limits.

Benefits of the MACD

One of the primary benefits of MACD is that it incorporates aspects of both momentum and trend in one indicator. As a trend-following indicator, it will not be wrong for very long.

The use of moving averages ensures that the indicator will eventually follow the movements of the underlying security. By using exponential moving averages, as opposed to simple moving averages, some of the lag has been taken out.

MACD Setup

The default settings for the MACD which we will use are:

Slow moving average - 26 days
Fast moving average - 12 days
Signal line - 9 day moving average of the difference between fast and slow.
All moving averages are exponential.

Although there are three moving averages mentioned you will only see two lines. The simplest method of use is when the two lines cross. If the faster signal line crosses above the MACD line ( The MACD line is calculated by the difference between the 26-day exponential moving average and the 12-day exponential moving average) then a buy signal is generated and vice versa.

The higher above the zero both lines are the more overbought it becomes and the lower below the zero line both lines are the more oversold it becomes.

It may also lead to a stronger signal if the signal line crosses down when it is overbought and crosses up when it is oversold.

The last common use of MACD is that of divergence.

If the MACD has made a new low and starts to head up but price continues dow making new lows that is one form of divergence (BULLISH Divergence).

Also, if the MACD has made a high and starts to head down making new lows but price continues up making new highs that is another type of divergence (BEARISH Divergence). This is also referred to as Negative Divergence and is probably the most reliable of the two and can warn of an impending peak.

There are many ways to trade the MACD but one of our favorites are too use two different time frames. All we do is establish a trend in a higher time period than the one we intend to trade. For our higher time frame we like to use the 30 min chart and then drop down to the 5 min chart when conditions have been met on the 30 min chart.

On the 30 min forex trading chart below there was a typical buy signal. The chart below (red arrow) shows the fast 9-day signal EMA (gray line) crossing over the MACD line EMA (green line).

After confirming the signal on the 30 min chart we then dropped to the 5min chart and bought the rallies wherever the MACD crossed up, confident to stay long (to buy) as long as our higher time period MACD trend in the 30 min stayed intact. If the 30 min MACD signal line were to cross down we would have closed all long positions.

Conclusion

The MACD is not particularly good for identifying overbought and oversold levels even though it is possible to identify levels that historically represent overbought and oversold levels. The MACD does not have any upper or lower limits to bind its movement and can continue to overextend beyond historical extremes.

Also the MACD calculates the absolute difference between two moving averages and not the percentage difference. The MACD is calculated by subtracting one moving average from the other. As a security increases in price, the difference (both positive and negative) between the two moving averages is destined to grow. This makes its difficult to compare MACD levels over a long period of time, especially for stocks that have grown exponentially.

With some charts you can set the MACD as a histogram. The histogram represents the difference between MACD and its 9-day EMA. The histogram is positive when MACD is above its 9-day EMA and negative when MACD is below its 9-day EMA.

That having said, the MACD still is and will always be one of the few indicators that all traders love and use daily and in many ways it is an old familiar friend you know you can rely on.

Thank you for joining us in this forex trading lesson.
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