Tag: interest rates

Yellen's Wand Is Running Low on Magic

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Doug French, Contributing Editor

How important is housing to the American economy?

If a 2011 SMU paper entitled "Housing's Contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)" is right, nothing moves the economic needle like housing. It accounts for 17% to 18% of GDP.

And don't forget that home buyers fill their homes with all manner of stuff—and that homeowners have more skin in insurance on what's likely to be their family's most important asset.

All claims to the contrary, the disappointing first-quarter housing numbers expose the Federal Reserve as impotent at influencing GDP's most important component.

The Fed: Housing's Best Friend

No wonder every modern Fed chairman has lowered rates to try to crank up housing activity, rationalizing that low rates make mortgage payments more affordable. Back when he was chair, Ben Bernanke wrote in the Washington Post, "Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance."

In her first public speech, new Fed Chair Janet Yellen said one of the benefits to keeping interest rates low is to "make homes more affordable and revive the housing market." Continue reading "Yellen's Wand Is Running Low on Magic" →

Warning: Uncle Sam Can't Afford A Strong Economy

Posted on by admin

By the time the U.S. budget deficit reached $1.4 trillion in fiscal (October) 2009, alarm bells were sounding everywhere. Unless the government could get its fiscal house in order, the future promised years of misery as the U.S. kowtowed to its bondholders in China, Japan and elsewhere.

But this crisis simply never came to pass. Thanks to a range of factors for which both political parties can take some credit, the budget gap has already narrowed sharply. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the budget deficit will fall even further in fiscal 2014 and 2015. Continue reading "Warning: Uncle Sam Can't Afford A Strong Economy" →

Are Interest Rates Going To Kill This Bull Market?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 8th of
November.

The Beat Goes On, Or Does It?

As the indices make new highs, interest rates have turned and are once again beginning to creep up. It certainly appears to be a strong indication that interest rates have indeed bottomed out. If interest rates continue to improve, meaning high yields for investors, I see this as a potential negative for the market in 2014.

Next year is going to be a dramatic year in the markets in my opinion, as we have a new Fed chairperson, rumored to be Janet Yellen, taking over from helicopter Ben. Ms. Yellen is going to have her work cut out for her trying to clean up the 4-year mess that she is inheriting. Whatever course of action Ms. Yellen embarks on will certainly have major ramifications for the markets, not just here in the United States, but also around the globe. Continue reading "Are Interest Rates Going To Kill This Bull Market?" →

Trading Using Monetary Policy Analysis

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Monetary policy, which is also known as interest rate policy, describes the actions or in-actions of a country’s central banks.  Interest rate policy generally focuses on maximizing price stability and growth.  The central bank of a country is considered the institution that controls a countries currency, money supply, and interest rates. Central banks also usually oversee the commercial banking system of their respective countries.

Each central bank has guidelines that are mandated by their legislature.  For example, in the US, the central bank has a dual mandate which is to maximize price stability and employment.  Other central banks, such as the European Central bank, have only one mandate which is price stability.

Central banks often spur growth and employment by reducing interest rates, making it easing for banks to lend money at reduced rates.  Lower interest rates also increase liquidity, and make purchasing riskier assets a more attractive alternative than holding low interest baring government notes. Continue reading "Trading Using Monetary Policy Analysis" →

Investors look to Fed for further clues on rates

Posted on by The INO.com Team

When the Federal Reserve offers its latest word on interest rates this week, few think it will telegraph the one thing investors have been most eager to know: When it will slow its bond purchases, which have kept long-term borrowing rates low.

The Fed might choose to clarify a separate issue: When it may raise its key short-term rate. The Fed has kept that rate near zero since 2008. It's said it plans to keep it there at least as long as unemployment remains above 6.5 percent and the inflation outlook below 2.5 percent.

Unemployment is now 7.6 percent; the inflation rate is roughly 1 percent. Continue reading "Investors look to Fed for further clues on rates" →