Tag: Interest Rate Hike

Will There Be A November Surprise?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


In its most recent Beige Book, covering late August through early October, released last week, the Federal Reserve noted that although economic “outlooks are positive, contacts in several sectors cite the upcoming presidential election as a source of near-term uncertainty, delaying some business decisions.”

The same could be said for the Fed itself. How much uncertainty has it created and business decisions has it delayed by its endless dawdling and indecisiveness on whether or not to raise interest rates? No matter who wins the vote, the election will end – maybe not on November 8, if it can be shown that someone did, in fact, rig the voting – but eventually, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will become president. But we have no such certitude that the Fed won’t continue to tease the markets about when it will start normalizing monetary policy. Continue reading "Will There Be A November Surprise?" →

Is Data Dependency Dead At The Fed?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


While it was certainly gratifying to know that the Federal Reserve may, finally, be ready to raise interest rates and normalize monetary policy before the end of the year, its reason for doing so, elucidated after last week’s FOMC meeting and Janet Yellen’s press conference left me shaking my head. To put it in economic terms, it didn’t make a whole lot of sense, given the Fed’s past behavior.

As we all know by now, the Fed, as widely expected, left interest rates unchanged last week, but hinted strongly for the umpteenth time that it’s almost ready to raise rates, just not right now.

“The committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives,” the post-meeting announcement said.

Yet, at the same time, the Fed lowered its estimate for U.S. economic growth this year to 1.8% from its June forecast of 2.0%, which is also its new long-term view of the economy. That’s certainly justified by the reports we’ve been getting the last several weeks, which show the economy slowing, not gaining strength, in the second half.

So why would the Fed say that the case for raising rates had “strengthened” even as it downgraded its view of the economy and most recent reports back that up? Continue reading "Is Data Dependency Dead At The Fed?" →

Fed Tightening Will Unleash U.S. Growth

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The Federal Reserve, the only central bank in the G7 economies and China to raise rates and the only central bank to lead a tightening cycle, is also the only central bank to get it right. As counter-intuitive as that may sound, higher rates in a world of negative rates and massive monetization is the only viable solution to stimulate growth. To understand the irony, we must delve into credit markets and assess what’s broken.

Cheap Credit Expensive Growth

One of the arguments espoused by critics of monetary stimulus, whether it’s negative interest rates or quantitative easing, is inflation. But in reality the real cost of a ultra-loose monetary policy is the exact opposite—deflation; prices in most of the world and, in fact, in most products are either falling or stagnating. The reason is that when the policy is ultra-loose inefficient sectors of the economy are kept artificially afloat. As long as interest rates are close to zero failing sectors can keep on piling debt and thus contribute less and less to growth while leaving less available capital to the more efficient sectors that really need to grow. Continue reading "Fed Tightening Will Unleash U.S. Growth" →

Will We See The Fed In September?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


It took less than two days last week for the financial markets to disabuse themselves of the notion that the Federal Reserve, this time, is really, truly, absolutely kind of serious about raising interest rates at its next meeting in September.

On Wednesday afternoon the Fed, as expected, left interest rates unchanged for the fifth straight monetary policy meeting since first raising rates last December, which was supposed to usher in a gradual process of rate “normalization” this year. As we know, of course, the Fed hasn’t followed through on that, finding one justification after another – rising oil prices, falling oil prices, weak Chinese economic growth, weak U.S. economic growth, Brexit, you name it – to delay the day of reckoning.

In last week’s post-meeting announcement, the Fed dropped several hints that might cause some people, even reasonable ones, to conclude that a rate increase might be in the offing at its next meeting in September. Continue reading "Will We See The Fed In September?" →

FX Volatility To Pick Up With Growth

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Despite the Federal Open Market Committee voting last week to maintain all of the Federal Reserve’s current rates, some market experts — including this one — are projecting that a rate hike is coming soon, and the Foreign Exchange market could see significant volatility because of it.

Indeed, as we suspected back on July 1, the Federal Reserve, in its release about the policy meeting held July 26-27, signaled that headwinds from Brexit are waning and pointed to diminishing near-term risks. But what does that mean, in practical terms? It means that the Fed is back in business: delivering mildly hawkish rhetoric, while preparing for the next rate hike. Continue reading "FX Volatility To Pick Up With Growth" →