Tag: inflation

Nobel Prize Winner: Bubbles Don't Exist

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Doug French

No wonder investors don't take economists seriously. Or if they do, they shouldn't. Since Richard Nixon interrupted Hoss and Little Joe on a Sunday night in August 1971, it's been one boom and bust after another. But don't tell that to the latest Nobel Prize co-winner, Eugene Fama, the founder of the efficient-market hypothesis.

The efficient-market hypothesis asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient," claiming one cannot consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis.

"Fama's research at the end of the 1960s and the beginning of the 1970s showed how incredibly difficult it is to beat the market, and how incredibly difficult it is to predict how share prices will develop in a day's or a week's time," said Peter Englund, secretary of the committee that awards the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. "That shows that there is no point for the common person to get involved in share analysis. It's much better to invest in a broadly composed portfolio of shares." Continue reading "Nobel Prize Winner: Bubbles Don't Exist" →

Federal Reserve Policy Failures Are Mounting

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., Economist

The Fed's capabilities to engineer changes in economic growth and inflation are asymmetric. It has been historically documented that central bank tools are well suited to fight excess demand and rampant inflation; the Fed showed great resolve in containing the fast price increases in the aftermath of World Wars I and II and the Korean War. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, rampant inflation was again brought under control by a determined and persistent Federal Reserve.

However, when an economy is excessively over-indebted and disinflationary factors force central banks to cut overnight interest rates to as close to zero as possible, central bank policy is powerless to further move inflation or growth metrics. The periods between 1927 and 1939 in the U.S. (and elsewhere), and from 1989 to the present in Japan, are clear examples of the impotence of central bank policy actions during periods of over-indebtedness.

Four considerations suggest the Fed will continue to be unsuccessful in engineering increasing growth and higher inflation with their continuation of the current program of Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP): Continue reading "Federal Reserve Policy Failures Are Mounting" →

Insurance in Wonderland

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The following is excerpted from the October 13 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole.  The segment followed a review of NFTRH's big picture stance on gold vs. various assets positively correlated to the global economy.  Specifically, the previous segment concluded that yes, the NFTRH big secular view is under threat by a technical analysis signal favoring US stocks over gold on the big picture per this monthly chart of SPX-Gold.  NFTRH first began managing this as the bottoming pattern broke above its neckline and then the EMA 10 crossed above the EMA 20 for the first time since 2001. Continue reading "Insurance in Wonderland" →

Trading Using Monetary Policy Analysis

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Monetary policy, which is also known as interest rate policy, describes the actions or in-actions of a country’s central banks.  Interest rate policy generally focuses on maximizing price stability and growth.  The central bank of a country is considered the institution that controls a countries currency, money supply, and interest rates. Central banks also usually oversee the commercial banking system of their respective countries.

Each central bank has guidelines that are mandated by their legislature.  For example, in the US, the central bank has a dual mandate which is to maximize price stability and employment.  Other central banks, such as the European Central bank, have only one mandate which is price stability.

Central banks often spur growth and employment by reducing interest rates, making it easing for banks to lend money at reduced rates.  Lower interest rates also increase liquidity, and make purchasing riskier assets a more attractive alternative than holding low interest baring government notes. Continue reading "Trading Using Monetary Policy Analysis" →

A Monetary Master Explains Inflation

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Terry Coxon, Senior Economist

[Ed. note: One of the best things about being a partner in a research firm employing about 40 analysts is that I have unfettered access to really smart people. While we have a great team with expertise across the spectrum, when it comes to monetary matters, my go-to guy is Terry Coxon, a senior editor for our flagship publication, The Casey Report.

Terry cut his teeth working side by side for years with the late Harry Browne, the economist and prolific author of a number of groundbreaking books, including the 1970 classic, How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation. The timing of Harry's book should catch your eye, because his analysis that the dollar was headed for a big fall was spot on. Anyone paying attention made a lot of money. Continue reading "A Monetary Master Explains Inflation" →