Worldwide Oil & Gas Capex Growth Good News for 'Big Four' Services Companies

The Energy Report: James, you have said the energy industry is in the early stages of a strong, sustained upside trend. What's driving that?

James West: Sustained high oil prices are driving a trend toward higher capital spending. Oil prices have been at elevated levelsabove $100 per barrel ($100/bbl) for Brent and $85 and above for WTI (West Texas Intermediate)for close to 40 months. Those are exceptionally good levels for most companies; they can make good profits on projects. Capital investments seem to be accelerating somewhat, particularly in the international markets.

North America is going through a little bit of an efficiency phase and a slowdown from rampant growth. That started after the financial crisis. Now the international markets, which are slower to recover after a financial crisis or downturn, as we saw in 2009, are starting to accelerate.

We recently released an update to our spending outlook, where we survey well over 300 companies in the oil and gas space. These companies represent about 90% or so of capital expenditures (capex) on exploration and production (EP), and they are showing about 13% gain year-over-year (YOY) in the international markets for capital budgets. There have been some regional shifts, but that's a pretty healthy number. Also, globally we're showing about a 10% gain in spending. This is the fourth year in a row of double-digit gains driven by high, sustained oil prices, behind which are many factors, one being limited OPEC spare capacity.

TER: Is the trend equally strong for gas? Continue reading "Worldwide Oil & Gas Capex Growth Good News for 'Big Four' Services Companies"

Electric Transportation Could Jump-Start Rare Earth Markets

The Metals Report: You've said that the ratio of natural gas to oil prices [see price charts below] represents the largest arbitrage opportunity in history. What does that mean for the future of transportation and rare earth element (REE) consumption?

Patrick Wong: This trillion-dollar arbitrage will bring a lot of momentum into the electrification of transportation. You need REEs to make the permanent magnets that go into the electric drive motors, so they have a key role. In 10 years, we'll look back and recognize that this is the beginning of the end of a world dependent upon petrol-based transportation. Continue reading "Electric Transportation Could Jump-Start Rare Earth Markets"

The Federal Reserve Relies on a Flawed Economic Model

By Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., Economist

In May 22 testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke issued another of many similar positive interpretations of central bank policy. Yet again, he continued to argue that quantitative easing has decreased long-term interest rates and produced other benefits. He called economic growth "moderate," a term that he has often used without acknowledging that the Fed's forecasts have repeatedly been far above the mark. Within less than two months—or by the time of the July FOMC meeting—the Fed had downgraded the economic growth to "modest," tacitly acknowledging that program of open-ended $85 billion purchases of government and federal agency security purchases had failed to boost economic activity.

The Fed's polices have not produced the much-promised re-acceleration in economic growth. In the first half of 2013 as well as the latest four quarters, the real GDP growth rate was a paltry 1.4%, even less than the 1.9% growth in the 13.5 years of this century, and less than two-fifths  of the 3.8% GDP growth rate since 1790. Only growth in the 1930s was less than in the 2000s, a time when Dr. Bernanke played a major, if not dominant, role in monetary policy decisions. Continue reading "The Federal Reserve Relies on a Flawed Economic Model"

Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction

The 'Commodity' segment, excerpted and expanded upon, from NFTRH 251:

The commodity complex is famous for a sort of 'Whack-a-Mole' quality to it.  Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?  Uranium (2007)?  Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)?

Well today none of them are doing much.  Oil went up but could be topping, Copper went down but is bouncing hard, Uranium, Gas and Grains are nowhere.  The result is this… Continue reading "Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction"

Gold Chart of The Week

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Weekly Gold Report August 12th through August 16th

Summer markets and light volume trading should continue to be the focus for the upcoming week. Despite the fact that the next five trading days have quite a bit of data to present, the reports are divided equally between the United States and Europe, along with a few from Japan and Great Britain. This mix of intermarket and intercontinental data should provide decent intraday volatility to trade, but I do not expect any fireworks.

The two standouts this week will be Retail Sales in the US and GDP reports from Germany, France and the Eurozone. Any one of these reports can provide some nice movement in the Currencies and Stock Indexes, but lighter volume trading should cap any major movement. Continue reading "Gold Chart of The Week"