We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Gold Futures
Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,185 an ounce currently trading at 1,200 up $15 for the trading week closing higher 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions in an impressive rally which started all the way back at 1,140 peeking out in yesterday’s trade at 1,220 as Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen sending the market sharply higher as that altercation looks to stay for some time to come. Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I was recommending a short position last week getting stopped out in last Fridays trade and that’s why you must have an exit strategy as the 10 day high was 1,177 as we have rallied $43 higher from that level this week with major resistance at 1,220 which is the true breakout in my opinion, and if that level is broken I would be recommending a bullish position but at this point in time I am neutral as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact of the recent run-up in prices. Gold futures have been extremely choppy over the last six months and choppy markets in my opinion are very difficult to trade successfully so at this point look for another trend that is starting to develop.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Silver Futures
Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.88 an ounce while currently trading this Friday afternoon at 17.08 up around 20 cents for the trading week hitting a four week high and now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside. I was recommending a short position in silver getting stopped out last week at the 2 week high which was around 16.20 and currently I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as the 10 day low is around 15.35 which is a $1.70 away as the risk is too high at the moment. Silver futures traded as high as 17.40 in yesterday’s trade on news that Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen as a possible war is at hand as the U.S dollar has also dropped about 4% from its contract high lending support to the precious metals as a whole. In my opinion I think you should wait for better chart structure to develop so be patient and keep an eye on this market as the trend may have turned to the upside but I will wait for a lower risk trade before entering.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Crude Oil Futures
Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.50 this Friday afternoon trading at 49.70 after settling last Friday at 46.57 up over $3 dollars for the trading week as prices traded as high as 52.48 in yesterday’s trade because of the fact of a possible war developing between Saudi Arabia and Yemen sending prices sharply higher. I was recommending a short position in crude oil getting stopped out in yesterday’s trade giving back most of the profits, however the trade was still slightly profitable but disappointing as prices rallied 4 straight trading sessions before today with a possible double bottom around the 45.00 level being created. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as a true breakout to the upside will be above 55.00 and the downside breakout won’t occur until prices break the contract low around 45.00 a barrel so keep an eye on this market as the chart structure remains outstanding. Crude oil futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside, however my exit strategy is if I’m short and prices hit a two week high against me then it’s time to move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as you must have an exit strategy as holding and never getting out of a position is extremely dangerous in my opinion as you must be nimble. At the current time I’m holding very few positions as I got stopped out of many positions in the last week so currently I’m only short sugar, lean hogs, and soybeans and I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for new trends to develop.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
Orange Juice Futures
Orange juice futures in the May contract rallied sharply this week and have rallied around 2500 points since last Fridays low as a report came out stating that the orange crop is the lowest in 47 years activating massive short covering as I was been recommending a short position in this market and that trade worked very well until the last several days getting stopped out around the 1.22 level in a very disappointing trade. Orange juice futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as the chart structure is terrible at the current time as it was one of the most impressive rallies I can remember in my 20 year career and that’s a perfect example why you must have the proper amount of risk and contracts on because commodity markets can change on a dime just like this market did. I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market and probably will not be trading orange juice for quite some time as the chart structure is horrible currently so look at another market that’s trending as my head is still spinning watching this market continue to move higher.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Cotton Futures
Cotton futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 62.80 currently trading at 63.10 up slightly for the trading week as traders are keeping a close eye on Tuesdays planting intention report with estimates around 9.7 million acres which is a 12% reduction from last year as this year’s crop in the United States will not be a record which has pushed up prices in recent weeks. Demand over the last several months has been very strong as prices are historically low as we enter the spring planting season in the United States as volatility will increase tremendously over the next several months as investors are putting a price premium back into the market just in case weather problems occur such as a drought. Cotton futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is higher, however the chart structure is terrible at the current time so I am sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better chart pattern to develop and it might take some time as volatility certainly has increased in recent weeks. Following the planting intentions report we will be able to come up with a relatively accurate production number and that will give us some fundamental news which should dictate short-term price action so keep an eye on this market and wait for a tighter chart pattern to develop as the price swings have been wild.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Live Cattle Futures
Live cattle futures in the June contract settled last Friday around 150.20 while currently trading at 152.40 up around 200 points for the trading week while trading higher by 1000 points over the last two weeks as the bull market remains intact in my opinion, however I am sitting on the sidelines as the volatility & chart structure is very poor at the current time. I have been pounding the table telling producers to start hedging at these levels while looking at the October 144 – 146 put options because I do believe in the next six months supplies will come onto this market so take advantage of the recent run-up in prices as the prudent thing to do is protect your livelihood. Cattle prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside, however the chart has several gaps that could be filled next week as heavy volume has come into this market over the last several weeks as cattle remains the only bullish trend out of the commodity sectors in 2015. Cattle prices have rallied since late February when prices were around the 139 level in a very impressive rally in my opinion as supply issues are the name of the game as inventories are extremely low keeping prices near historical highs, but if you look at the hog market hovering around recent lows because of expansion I think the same thing will happen to cattle prices but it will take some time so look at put options six months out as they are relatively cheap due to the recent rally.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Lean Hog Futures
Lean hog futures in the June contract are unchanged this Friday after settling last Friday in Chicago at 73.80 up around 160 points this week as traders are awaiting the hog report which comes out this afternoon after the closing bell and should send some big volatility into this market Monday morning as volume has increased substantially in the last several days as a possible spike bottom in Tuesday’s trade may have occurred. Hog futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I have been recommending a short position from around the 77.70 level and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 77.20 risking around 180 points or $750 per contract plus slippage and commission. Obviously I’m hoping that the hog report this afternoon is bearish and if that does occur I think a possible break of 70.00 is in the cards, however if that report is bullish we certainly will be stopped out in Monday’s trade as volatility certainly has increased over the last several days so stick to the rules and keep your stop loss at the proper level and if you’re not short this market sit on the sidelines because the risk is too high because nobody ever knows what a report will state so look at another market that’s beginning to trend
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
Sugar Futures
Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’ve been recommending a short position in the May contract as prices settled last Friday at 12.60 a pound while currently trading at 12.24 continuing its bearish momentum and if you took the original trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 12.97 risking around 73 points or $800 per contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price levels. This is one of the few commodities I’m still short as many of my recommendations stopped me out over the last week as the commodity markets in general stabilized except for sugar prices as I do think there is a high probability that we will crack 12.00 in the next couple of days as over supplies are the main problem with this commodity as Brazil continues to produce record crop after record crop coupled with the fact that the Brazilian Real hit a 12 year low against the U.S dollar which is very bearish fundamental indicator which could push prices even lower from today’s price levels. The chart structure at the current time is outstanding, however the 10 day high will not be lowered for at least another week so you’re going to have to be patient with this trade as heavier than normal volume has entered this market over the last six weeks which tells me that this move to the downside is real so continue to take advantage of any rallies while maintaining the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Soybean Futures
Soybean futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago around 9.74 a bushel currently trading at 9.70 slightly lower as traders are awaiting the highly anticipated planting intentions report which comes out on Tuesday and will send high volatility into this market with estimates around 86/8 7 million acres which is 2/3 million more acres than last year’s record crop as the fundamentals in soybeans still remain very bearish in my opinion. I’ve been recommending a short position in soybeans and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which has been lowered to 9.90 risking 20 cents or $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its bearish momentum. The next major level of support is last week’s low around 9.55 and if that crop report is bearish I think contract lows will be established once again due to the fact that if we do produce 4.2 billion bushels that could overwhelm supplies as carryover levels could be at historical highs, however that’s with ideal growing conditions and as you know the summer is very long & can have many weather scares. The chart structure in soybeans is outstanding at the current time and if you’re not short I’m still recommending the trade even at today’s price levels as Brazil’s crop has been raised once again to another record as supplies are awash worldwide as the U.S dollar’s surge in recent months has put a damper on exports so continue to play this to the downside as prices are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive session.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Coffee Futures
Coffee futures in the May contract are down 250 points this Friday afternoon currently trading at 137.50 a pound after settling in New York last Friday at 143.35 down about 600 points for the trading week continuing its sideways choppy trend as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout to occur. The chart structure in coffee is outstanding at the current time as it still seems to me that the trend is bearish but a possible double bottom around the 130 level may have been created as something will start to develop possibly next week as volatility is relatively low as we enter the frost season in the month of May & as I’ve talked about in previous blogs I remember in 1994 prices went from 60 all the way up to 260 in a matter of weeks due to a double freeze destroying the coffee crop in Brazil. Coffee futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside, however the criteria I use to enter a trade is the market has to hit a 4 week high to enter on the long side or a 4 week low to enter on the short side and that has not occurred at the current time so be patient as something will develop soon. Volatility in coffee certainly will start to rise as worldwide supplies are still large as the Brazilian Real is hitting a 12 year low against U.S dollar putting pressure on anything that’s growing in Brazil at the current time and I don’t see that stopping anytime soon as the longer-term trend is still bearish and I will be recommending a short position if prices do break 130 on a closing basis.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Corn Futures
Corn futures in the December contract which is considered the new crop which will be harvested this October settled last Friday in Chicago around 4.10 while currently trading at 4.13 a bushel up slightly for the week as I was recommending a short position getting stopped out around the 4.17 level taking a slight loss as traders are awaiting Tuesday’s planting intentions report which will send high volatility back into this market once again. Estimates of the acreage is between 87 – 88 million acres which is between 2/3 million acres less than last year as we should not be able to produce a record crop here in the United States keeping prices near recent highs, however there is major resistance around the 4.21 level which has been hit on a half a dozen times but unable to break through so this report will definitely dictate short-term price action. Corn futures traded as low as 3.92 last week then rallied about 30 cents as volatility has come to a crawl as nobody wants to stick their neck out before Tuesday’s report as prices are trading slightly above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend currently is mixed as the U.S dollar is off by about 4% from its recent high propelling many of the commodity prices slightly higher in the last week or so. Volatility will start to increase tremendously as we enter spring planting in the next couple of weeks so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade. If the United States produces 13.8 billion bushels once again I would have to think that prices could trade below $3.00 dollars a barrel come harvest time, however if a drought strikes key corn growing regions like it did in 2012 it would send prices sharply higher as the critical growing season lies ahead.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Trade with the short term trend
As the saying goes in futures trading the trend is your friend but sometimes you will be a market that is trending higher and then has a false breakout to the upside and then suddenly sells off causing you a 2% loss on your equity and you say to yourself that was a bad trade and should I do something different on my next trade. If it was up to me I would continue to buy strength and sell weakness because in the long run commodity trading is about percentages of success in the long run, and if you go with the path of least resistance more often than not you will have the probabilities of success on your side. I define a trend as a commodity hitting a 20 day high or low as a trendy market, if the market is in a consolidation stay away from it and find something that is trending.
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
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Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: (800) 615-7649
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