Tag: Gold

Gold Monthly Update: Hate The Dollar?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


The Dollar

In my last monthly update, I examined a chart of the US Dollar Index and today, I will do it again to show you how king currency rules this dollar-denominated world swing-to-swing. There is one difference; this time it will be an Elliott Wave analysis and I hope you will enjoy it.

US Dollar Index - 5 Targets / Waves A, B & C
Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

As seen in the above weekly chart, right after my monthly post, the Dollar Index started its long-term correction, dipping below the Continue reading "Gold Monthly Update: Hate The Dollar?" →

Chen Lin's Secret to Finding the Next Goldcorp

Posted on by admin

The Gold Report: You've written that the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) could lead to a boom in commodities. We recently saw that South Korea is joining a number of European countries and signing on, despite U.S. reservations. Do you see this as a threat to U.S. fiscal dominance?

Chen Lin: I think this is a first step for China. The country has a huge reserve, $4 trillion, much more than it needs on the balance sheet to stabilize its currency. The rest is wasted, collecting no interest. China made some huge mistakes in the past through poor acquisition decisions because of faulty lending standards. This is a sign that it has learned from its mistakes and wants to make the most of the trillions it has to loan out right now. The bank will operate close to international standards, and because it has many nations involved already, defaulting loans will include less risk.

"Pretium Resources Inc. is a very high-grade, low-cost, exciting story."

This is a test. If it is successful, it can expand to Africa, South America, even Europe and North America. China has trillions of dollars sitting, doing nothing. It wants to find a way to lend money it can almost guarantee to get back and then put the money to use in the form of development. China has a huge infrastructure network capacity, requiring steel and cement. This creates jobs, which is good for the economy. That was the thinking behind the announcement.

If the AIIB is successful, it will be a big boon for base metals, energy, platinum and palladium sectors. It may even boost silver demand and prices because of its industrial use. I don't think it will have too much impact on gold, though.

TGR: Does that include copper? It has been below $3 per pound ($3/lb) all year. Continue reading "Chen Lin's Secret to Finding the Next Goldcorp" →

Gold And Silver: The Bulls Failed

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Gold - Classic Chart

Daily Gold Chart

Another profitable week for the bulls ended and so did the upward momentum. Price elevated for a decent $40 from my last post and almost touched the $1223 resistance area on Thursday, but failed below $1220 and then quickly retraced down for $15 to a $1204 close.

The rule of the game is set so that if you don’t keep buying to push the market up, sellers will appear and you would be buying all the way down. Once weakness appeared, the bears took the ball and started their own game, pulling the price down from recent highs. Monday brought more selling pressure to the game and the price is now below the first support level at $1190 (former resistance, highlighted in green). If we close below $1190, then I would not rule out price reaching $1170/$1131 supports. Sellers can benefit from the trade lower, with a stop set just above $1200 and take profit put above $1131. $20 of risk versus $55 of profit, a sound ratio. Continue reading "Gold And Silver: The Bulls Failed" →

How the Five Principles of Capital Allocation Can Mean Gold Mining Success

Posted on by admin

The Gold Report: The price of gold is flirting with a five-year low. Do you attribute this solely to the strength of the U.S. dollar, or are there other factors at work?

Ralph Aldis: There are other factors. Most important is the strength of the equity markets. Looking at a six-year window, we have seen, for the third time in the last hundred years, the highest returns for such a period. This happened before in 1929 and 1999. These phenomenal returns have been fueled not by fundamentals but rather by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is trying to jumpstart the economy.

All this has taken people's eyes off gold, but it won't go on forever.

TGR: The bear market in gold equities is now four years old. This means lower gold production and less exploration. Gold production from South Africa has collapsed. Shouldn't lower gold production result in a higher gold price? Continue reading "How the Five Principles of Capital Allocation Can Mean Gold Mining Success" →

Is Gold Foretelling An Impending Greek Disaster?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today is the first day of spring and maybe this is the cause for the spring in the markets. March 20th also happens to be "International Happiness Day" and I'm sure that many investors have a smile on their face today with the way the markets are acting in Europe, Asia and the U.S.

Today, I'll be looking at gold prices because they are acting and doing something that they haven't done in a long time and I want to share that with you in today's video. It is impossible to pinpoint what is causing gold to rally, whether it is short covering or the potential that Greece is going to implode any day now. Either way, it's not important what is causing the rally. The important thing to remember when trading is to get the direction right and not worry about what is causing the trend. I remember when I was in the trading pits in Chicago, I asked someone why the market was going up and he said to me, "It doesn't matter, it's going up". There is a lot of truth in that comment. That's one of the big takeaways in trading, don't over think markets.

As I write this commentary before the market opens, we could be seeing the equity markets close well towards the end of the day and possibly closing in new high ground on short equities before the weekend. The NASDAQ is very close to breaching the 5000 level, a close over that area today can be viewed as being very positive for the weekend.

Crude oil also appears to be finding some support at lower levels but has not yet reversed trend and turned around. I will be looking at that market to see where the key points are for a trend reversal to the upside. Remember markets can get very crowded on one side of the ledger when everybody believes that the trend will continue and go on forever. When that happens, a market tends to reverse and go the other way. The reason that happens is because markets are forward-looking trading instruments.

I will be getting into the recent Trade Triangle scan today to find new trades that may be just emerging. You won't want to miss that part of today's video.

This being Friday, I will of course, be looking for weekend trades using our "52-week highs on a Friday" strategy.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub