Get Out Of Gold Stocks -- Right Now

Few investments are driven by psychology and fear as much as gold. Concerns about ruinous inflation, global tensions or economic instability can send investors out of stocks and right into the seemingly safe harbor of gold.

Is the fear trade back on? A double-digit rebound in gold prices since the year began has led some investors to wonder if gold is poised for a great 2014 after a dismal slump in 2013 when gold prices fell more than $400 an ounce. Junior gold miners have fared even better: The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is up roughly 35% in the past three months.

Much of the impetus for an upward move in gold prices was the building tensions in Ukraine, which led to concerns about potential military escalation. It's now apparent that financial sanctions, and not a deepening of a war posture, will characterize the hardening Russia/European Union relationship, and the risk factor is slowly receding. Continue reading "Get Out Of Gold Stocks -- Right Now"

Precious Metals Grind Out a New Trend

Gold is Monetary Value

We preface the post with a statement that has not changed since I began public writing nearly 10 years ago:  Gold is not about price; gold is about value.  This point was hammered home to me 11 years ago by a person who had much influence upon my viewpoint toward the financial system and its various diseased components at a time when I was ready to listen and understand.

So whether we are talking about 2013′s epic price crash or a new bull trend in 2014, the simple fact is that physical gold itself is a store of monetary value.  That applied last year as the value was marked down by greed and confidence and it will apply this year as it is marked up in the face of a likely unwinding of those things.  Humans, what funny and hyper kinetic animals. Continue reading "Precious Metals Grind Out a New Trend"

Could It Be, Gold Actually Looks Bullish?

Traders are struggling to understand what the unemployment report means to the Federal Reserve and to the markets, but their initial assessment seems to be bullish.

Concerns About Spending Offset by Weak Jobs Data
SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) gained 0.68% last week despite negative news from several companies throughout the week.

Until Friday, retailers dominated the news about the stock market. J. C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) reported disappointing holiday sales and the stocks sold off. Other retailers also reported lower sales. Addressing future profitability, Macy's (NYSE: M) jumped after announcing plans to cut costs. Continue reading "Could It Be, Gold Actually Looks Bullish?"

Change = Opportunity = Gold

Let's face it, without change, there can be no opportunity. As traders and investors, we need to see change in order to make money.

One potential opportunity in 2014 could be gold. In 2013, gold suffered what was perhaps its worst performance as an asset in decades, losing over 25% of its value for the year. This was the first time that gold had a year-to-year loss that I can remember. So in 2014, the question has to be, what's going on with gold and is it going to redeem itself?

Looking at the chart which begins in July of 2012, you can see that gold hit its high and then basically for the next 15 months moved consecutively lower. This high is not the all-time high that was seen in August of 2011 at $1904, but the most significant high for our chart work. Continue reading "Change = Opportunity = Gold"

Gold Chart of The Week

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Before the release of the Non Farm Payrolls last week on Friday, US markets could not catch a break. Lower highs and lower lows were put in on the daily chart of the S&P 500 after the new high was printed on November 29th. On Thursday, stocks took the day to consolidate inside the prior days price range, but exploded to the upside at 7:30 cst. Markets were treated to a better-than-expected jobs number where 203,000 jobs were created and the jobless rate in the US hit a five year low. Additionally, Consumer Confidence in the US shot up to a five year high soon after the jobs numbers were posted. In short, LAST WEEK traders and investors used favorable reports as a reason to buy equities. The big question is whether the stock market will react the same way THIS WEEK, when data is released. We will have to wait and see. Continue reading "Gold Chart of The Week"