Tag: george yacik

The Odds Of A Fed Rate Hike In June Just Got Smaller

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Still think the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting next week? Last Friday’s jobs report for May should make you rethink that notion. But it’s not the only reason.

Prior to the release of the report – which showed that the economy added just 138,000 jobs last month, nearly 50,000 below expectations, while the previous two months were revised downward by 66,000– the market consensus called for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its June 13-14 meeting. That doesn’t seem like such a sure thing anymore.

After its last meeting on May 2-3, when it took no action on rates largely because of a weaker-than-expected economy in the first quarter, the Fed said it expected the slowdown was “likely to be transitory.” Now, however, we have a pretty substantial body of evidence that indicate fairly strongly, if not consistently, that the slowdown has continued well into the second quarter. Continue reading "The Odds Of A Fed Rate Hike In June Just Got Smaller" →

We Need To Keep The CFPB

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


President Trump’s first federal budget proposal got a lot of grief over the past week from both Republicans – some of whom say it’s “dead on arrival” – and Democrats – some of whom claim it’s actually going to kill people. But one small part of the plan got relatively little notice, maybe because it was on the next-to-last page of the document. That was the huge cuts proposed for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), essentially abolishing it in a few years.

The Trump proposal would cut the agency’s budget by $145 million in 2018, a one-year reduction of more than 20%, with the cuts increasing to more than $700 million by 2021, when it would essentially be defunded.

I think that would be a terrible mistake. For those of you who disagree, I have two words for you: Wells Fargo (WFC). Continue reading "We Need To Keep The CFPB" →

Talk About Chutzpah

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


If you’ve ever wondered why so many of today’s American college students seem to live in a self-delusional world where they take little personal responsibility for anything that goes wrong in their lives, you don’t have to look any further than the professors who teach them.

In a recent op-ed column in the New York Times, Susan M. Dynarski, a professor of education, public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, takes the Trump Administration to task for its failure to take the proper steps, in Ms. Dynarski’s eyes, to fix the student debt problem, as if Donald Trump himself caused the crisis.

Nowhere in her lengthy critique does she ever address head-on the real culprits in the student debt crisis: the government agency that made these loans in the first place, and the colleges and universities that have exploited these loans in order to drive up the price of higher education, forcing millions of students and their parents into debt if they want to attend college.

First, she says, “the Education Department has weakened accountability for the companies that administer student loans,” specifically calling out Navient, formerly a part of Sallie Mae. Now privatized, Navient is the largest servicer of government student loans. As such, Dynarski says, “companies like Navient are the face of the student loan system, and often the source of enormous frustration for borrowers.” Continue reading "Talk About Chutzpah" →

Want A Federal Student Loan? Just Shake My Hand

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Fans of the 1970s classic sitcom “The Odd Couple” might remember the episode in which Oscar Madison introduces his roommate Felix Unger to his sleazy insurance agent from Lloyd’s of Lubbock, whose come-on is that he offers you a policy just by shaking your hand. It appears that Lloyd is back in business, only now he’s working for the federal government. Or at least his underwriting guidelines have been adopted by the U.S. Department of Education.

The Wall Street Journal published a long story on Monday about the federal Parent Plus loan program, which it says “asks almost nothing about its borrowers’ incomes, existing debts, savings, credit scores or ability to repay. Then it extends loans that are nearly impossible to extinguish in bankruptcy if borrowers fall on hard times.”

And lots of them have. As of September 2015, 11% of Parent Plus borrowers hadn’t made a payment on their loans in at least a year, which “exceeds the default rate on U.S. mortgages at the peak of the housing crisis.” And the problem is only going to get worse. The number of families with Parent Plus loans has jumped more than 60% since 2005, the Journal reports, to 3.5 million at the end of last year. They owe a combined $77.5 billion, or an average $22,000. Continue reading "Want A Federal Student Loan? Just Shake My Hand" →

Did The Fed Jump The Gun? Now What?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Based on the recent direction of the U.S. economy and the drop in Treasury bond yields to six-month lows, it would appear that the Federal Reserve may have been a little too hasty in raising interest rates and ending monetary accommodation. So how will the markets – both stocks and bonds – react if the Fed has to swallow its pride and need to stuff the genie back in the bottle?

As we know, since Donald Trump was elected last November, the Fed has raised the federal funds rate twice, plus promised at least two more increases by the end of this year. At the same time, it’s also said that it plans to start trimming its massive $4.5 trillion securities portfolio before year-end. All of that action has been predicated on the economy growing and potentially over-heating – i.e., causing too much inflation – under President Trump’s stimulative policies, including tax cuts, deregulation and repealing and replacing Obamacare.

But what happens if those assumptions don’t actually become a reality, which is what seems to be happening right now? Will the Fed suddenly start lowering interest rates again, or at least put off its plans for future rate increases? And will it also put on hold its balance sheet reduction plan? Continue reading "Did The Fed Jump The Gun? Now What?" →