Tag: Gary Tanashian

HUI Timing Boxes

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In the previous post about ‘Gold Miners & Inflation’ it was mentioned that the 2013-2014 would-be bottoming grind in HUI has been almost exactly the duration of the 2010-2011 topping grind.  Here is a visual to put with that statement.

hui

The current yellow box is an exact duplicate of the 2010/11 box, which came with an over bought MACD crossed down.  The breakdown candle implies that September would be the month that a break UP candle comes into play if this relationship has any predictive power.

Taking it further, as also noted in the previous post, the Ukraine noise does not help the sector and indeed could hurt in the short-term, because it keeps the wrong gold bugs on the tout.  So NFTRH keeps open some minor downside targets.

Taking it further still, those downside targets would end up being buying opportunities if gold’s macro fundamentals start to improve, which despite the emails I get to the contrary, really has not happened yet beyond a few ongoing positives.  But it had not happened yet in 2000 either.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart/trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work.

Deflationary Straw Man

Posted on by The INO.com Team

No matter the debates over inflation vs. deflation, increasing employment vs. sound monetary policy or systemic health vs. fragility (and whatever else is flying around in Jackson Hole this week), the CPI marches onward and upward.  That is the system and it is predicated on creating enough money out of thin air while inflation signals are (somehow) held at bay.

The Straw Man* in this argument lives in the idea that inflation is not always destructive, that inflation can be used for good and honed, massaged and targeted just right to achieve positive ends to defeat the curse of deflation that is surely just around the next corner.  Currently, the Straw Man is supported by the reality of the moment, which includes long-term Treasury yields remaining in their long-term secular down trend.

Indeed, right here at this very site was displayed much doubt about the promotion having to do with the “Great Rotation” out of bonds and into stocks (i.e. that the yield would break the red dotted EMA 100 this time).  We noted it right at that last red arrow on the Continuum© below.  Now, with commodity indexes right at critical support and precious metals not far from their own, the time is now if a match is going to be put to that dry old Straw Man and silver is going to out perform gold, inflation expectations barometers (TIPS vs. unprotected T bonds) are going to turn up and the Continuum is going to find support.

 

tyx

People argue over inflation’s effects and the expectations thereof but the CPI, which is the ultimate measure of inflation’s lagging effects, has never stopped to take a breather.  2008′s liquidation of the system?  Child’s play.  Inflation, which is what the Fed has been hysterically promoting since 2007, will always manifest in rising prices somewhere.  As luck would have it, this time it is manifesting in the stock market to a greater degree than the CPI.  ‘All good!’ think our policy makers if the right prices are rising. Continue reading "Deflationary Straw Man" →

HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.

Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention.  Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs?  No.  We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.

While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.

HUI Gold Bugs Index

hui

First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013.  They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation. Continue reading "HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts" →

A Look At The U.S. Stock Market Using Weekly Charts

Posted on by The INO.com Team

With the help of some of NFTRH‘s standard weekly charts, we take a snapshot of the US stock market.

The Bank index is unbroken from a weekly perspective.  People will talk about an H&S but it is not activated until the trend channel and the neckline (a well defined support area) are broken.  BKX, along with the Semiconductors has been a notable leader to the entire surprise* phase of the bull market out of Q4, 2012.

bkx

A breakdown of support would break this cycle of the bull market (if this is a secular bull market as many experts think, then the bull would live again after the cycle completes).  It would probably be healthiest to the secular bull case for a breakdown to occur into a relatively small cyclical bear market. Continue reading "A Look At The U.S. Stock Market Using Weekly Charts" →

Death of the Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).

usd.daily

This is not to say that the US dollar has real value. How can it when it is hopelessly dragged down by a national debt-for-growth obsession. But as with gold, value is one thing and price is quite another. It is just that one (USD) receives a price bid due to a ‘nowhere else to hide’ sort of mentality by the majority when asset market liquidity becomes constrained and the other (Gold) receives a more solid value bid, over time.

We saw what happened when gold got the price bid as the panicked ‘Knee Jerks’ flooded in during the acute phase of the Euro crisis in 2011. That was the exclamation point on the first major phase of the gold bull market and the dawn of a cyclical bear market.

We continue to await economic contraction, in which the price of the USD can benefit for a while as capital comes out of assets and into what it thinks is a safe haven. Gold remember, has been soundly discredited as a store of value and that has been the bear market’s job… well done I might add. Continue reading "Death of the Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really?" →