Tag: Futures Trading

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,907 an ounce while currently trading at 1,930, ending the week on a positive note as prices have now hit a 3 week high.

If you look at the daily chart, gold, and silver mirror each other, it looks to me that this commodity bottomed out around the 1,850 level. I will be looking at a possible bullish position once prices hit a 4 week high, and the chart structure improves; therefore, the risk/reward would be more in your favor.

If you want to jump the gun and are bullish at this point, I would place the stop loss under the 1,850 level as the risk would be around $8,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. However, I will be patient and wait for that risk to be lowered significantly. The U.S. dollar was down by 50 points continuing its bearish momentum as the board's commodity markets look very strong. I think they will continue their bullish momentum in next week's trade as I am also keeping a very close eye on a possible bullish silver position as I do not think the 2,100 level will be the top in gold.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 24.02 an ounce while currently trading at 25.08, ending the week sharply higher as prices have now hit a 3 week high.

I'm sitting on the sidelines looking at entering into a bullish position once prices hit the 4 week high. This market has been incredibly choppy over the last several weeks looking to bottom out, in my opinion. If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I am bullish on the commodity markets. I will not take a short silver position as I do not think the $30 level will be the high. We are just consolidating that run-up in price that we witnessed over the last couple of months. Continue reading "Gold And Silver Futures Mirror Each Other" →

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.80 while currently trading at 2.43, down about 37 points for the week, hitting a 2 month low.

I am not involved as the volatility is extremely high. That situation isn't going to change as we enter the winter months as seasonably speaking, you can have tremendous price swings daily. I will be looking at a counter-trend trade soon. I think the contract low, which was hit on June 25th at 2.13, will keep a close eye on this market as I think a bottoming situation is starting to occur.

Gas prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is mixed to lower in my opinion as prices topped out right around the 3.00 level just several weeks ago. Fundamentally speaking, industrial natural gas demand remains tepid as BNEF data shows gas demand from power generators was estimated at just under 30 bcf for last Monday, which is the lowest for any September 21st since 2015.

TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the November contract is currently trading at 111.85, ending the week on a sour note after settling last Friday in New York at 105.75, up over 600 points for the week bottoming out around the 105 level. Continue reading "Extreme Volatility Hits Natural Gas Futures" →

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,962 an ounce while currently trading at 1,860, down over $100 for the trading week, experiencing one of their worst percentage loss in months.

I'm not involved, but if you look at the daily chart, it looks like lower prices are ahead as the downtrend line remains intact, with prices now trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average for the first time in months. It looks to me that prices will test major support around the 1,800 level in the coming days. The U.S. dollar has hit a 2 month high as that has negatively influenced the precious metals that have fallen out of bed this week.

Gold prices are experiencing high volatility as that situation will not change anytime soon. I am advising clients to sit on the sidelines as I will be looking at a bullish position down the road. Fundamentally speaking, the Federal Reserve will implement trillions and trillions of stimulus dollars into this economy. Eventually, it will push all asset classes higher as I think this is just a consolidation of the massive run-up that we witnessed over the last 6 months, but I do not believe the long term trend is over with just the short-term trend has turned negative.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract absolutely collapsed this week after settling last Friday, New York at 27.12 an ounce while currently trading at 22.85, down about $4.25 for the week as prices have now hit a 2 week low. Continue reading "Gold Futures To Test Major Support" →

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.0395 a pound while currently trading at 3.0700, up about 300 points for the trading week as prices are still right near a 2 year high.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 3.0140 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low, which stands at 2.9555. However, the chart structure will improve in 4 trading sessions; therefore, the monetary risk will be reduced. I also have a bullish platinum recommendation out of the precious metals. I think commodities are headed higher across-the-board due to strengthening demand improving worldwide. I will be looking at adding more contracts to the upside as the risk/reward remain in your favor because prices have gone nowhere over the last 3 weeks as. That situation is not going to last much longer as a breakout is looming, in my opinion.

Copper prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend is strong to the upside as fundamentally speaking, strong demand continues to propel prices higher.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 132.45 a pound while currently trading at 113.90, down over 1800 points for the trading week as prices have now hit a 4 week low.

I do not have any soft commodity recommendations; however, I believe the multi-decade low that was hit on June 15th at 96.90 will hold as I will be looking at a bullish trade in the coming days ahead. The risk would be around $7,000, which is way too much, so be patient. I think a bottom has been formed, but the rain has come back into key coffee growing regions in Brazil, which has sent prices sharply lower here in the short-term. Continue reading "Improving Global Demand Drives Futures Higher" →

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.0620 a pound while currently trading at 3.0370, down about 250 points on high volatility as prices are still hovering right near a 2 year high.

If you take a look at the daily chart, the uptrend line remains intact coupled with the fact that prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend is strong to the upside even though prices have stalled out over the last couple of weeks.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 3.0140 level. If you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 2 week low on a closing basis only at 2.9535 as an exit strategy chart structure is outstanding. For the bullish momentum to continue, prices have to break the September 1st high of 3.0945, in my opinion. I still believe the risk/reward is in your favor for a bullish position as this commodity at the current time is following the stock market, which has showed some high volatility to the downside over the last several days, keeping a lid on prices.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 26.71 an ounce while currently trading at 26.92, up slightly for the trading week as prices continue their sideways trading action. Continue reading "High Volatility Hits Futures Market" →