Tag: Futures Trading

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.03 an ounce while currently trading at 17.35 up about $0.30 for the trading week and traded as high as 17.70 in yesterday's trade before selling off. Profit-taking was to blame as that was a four-month high. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 17.50 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the two-week low standing at 16.73 as the chart structure will not improve for another seven trading days. You're going to have to accept the monetary risk as the volatility certainly has come back, which is a terrific thing to see in my opinion. The U.S. dollar has hit a three year low this week continuing its bearing trend which is helping support the precious metals as gold prices were also higher this week. Continue to play this to the upside, and if you did not take the original trade, I'm still recommending it at today's price level as the risk is about $750 per mini contract plus slippage & commission. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend as positive as I am bullish all commodity sectors including the stock market as my only bearish recommendation is in the bond market as 2018 could see terrific trends to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures settled last Friday in New York at 1,334 an ounce while currently trading at 1,334 unchanged for the trading week as the volatility certainly has increased as gold prices have rallied about $100 from their December 12th low of 1,238 as this remains in a bullish trend. I do not have any recommendations in the precious metals, but if you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under the two-week low at 1,308 as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade. The main reason for the recent rally is the fact that the U.S. dollar has hit a three year low which is definitely a fundamental bullish indicator towards gold and the precious metals as a whole. The next major level of resistance is the September 8th high of 1,365. I think prices will try to touch that level in the coming weeks ahead as it looks to me that the dollar will continue its bearish trend, therefore, supporting gold despite the fact that the U.S. stock market seems to hit an all-time high every day which used to be negative towards gold. But 2018 is a different story as the commodity markets will start to catch up to the high stock prices in my opinion as the U.S economy is growing for the 1st time in nearly ten years. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly the trend is higher, but I will look at other markets with a better risk/reward scenario at present.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: INCREASING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Pendulum Experiment No.4: The First Failure

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Another year has passed, and we have started 2018 looking for new opportunities and facing new challenges. It is time to see the result of the 4th Pendulum swing published in the middle of 2017. To remind you, we had pitted palladium against orange juice in that race and below are your bets for that experiment.

Chart 1. Poll results

INO.com Traders Blog Poll
Chart courtesy of INO.com

These poll results show a good split of opinions as it wasn’t ultra-biased in favor of the metal. The majority of readers hit it right as their prediction came true and palladium (+23.5%) could easily beat not only the orange juice (1.7%) but most of the futures over the last half of the year, ranking the 6th. Moreover, this is the first failure of the experiment as it was thought that the previous loser orange juice would beat the last winner palladium, but it didn’t happen.

I am not upset about this outcome because when you start an experiment, you like to see how your hypothesis works out. Any success or failure is the part of a test, and quite often you find out something genuinely new, which is outside of your initial thought. Many things in this world are invented during the experiments that were meant to find something different.

From the very beginning, I knew that one thing was inevitably imperfect in this experiment, I always choose the top performing/underperforming metal instead of the top losing/gaining futures against the other futures to stay focused on the metals. Another thing is the period of the experiment. This is also a crucial variable of the experiment. So far it works pretty well, and I would tune only the first imperfection to let the futures, not metal to be picked against each other from now on. Continue reading "Pendulum Experiment No.4: The First Failure" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,322 an ounce while currently trading at 1,333 up about $11 for the trading week right near a four-month high. I'm currently not involved in any of the precious metals as they have rebounded sharply over the last month. The U.S. dollar has now hit a four-month low in today's trade continuing its bearish trend which has supported gold and the precious metals recently, but the chart structure is poor coupled with the fact that we are in overbought territory. I will be patient & wait for a better chart pattern to develop before entering into a trade. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher as we now look to retest the September 8th high around 1,365 in my opinion. This market has rallied substantially from the recent low, that was hit on December 12th at 1,238 as we have now rallied nearly $100 in a blink of an eye despite the fact that U.S. stock market hits all-time highs every day, but this rally is based on a weak U.S. Dollar. Gold is also riding the coattails of the energy market which is right at a three-year high in crude oil as both of these are considered inflationary commodities as the U.S. economy and worldwide economies are improving significantly as that should bolster commodity prices across the board in 2018.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY:INCREASING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract are currently trading at 1,322 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,309 up about $11 for the trading week continuing its remarkable bullish run over the last month as we have now traded higher for the last 11 consecutive sessions. Gold prices bottomed out on December 12th at 1,238 and have now rallied substantially right near a four-month high. I am not involved in this market as the chart structure is terrible due to the recent run-up in prices all because of the U.S. dollar has now hit a three-month low supporting gold and the precious metals across the board. At this point, I am very reluctant to buy gold as I think it is overextended and if you take a look at the RSI indicator, it's in overbought territory. It's remarkable in my opinion that gold has rallied this much despite the fact that the U.S. stock market has hit an all-time high every day this week & looks to move even higher in 2018 in my opinion. As I've talked about in many previous blogs, I do believe that commodities are extremely cheap at this point. If you're looking to buy gold, I would wait for some type of retracement around the 1,300 level as patience is the key to trading sometimes. However, the trend is to the upside as we are trading above the 20 and 100-day moving average, but I think prices are ahead of themselves.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →