Tag: Futures Trading

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,231 an ounce while currently trading at 1,222 lower for the 2nd consecutive session continuing its bearish momentum as it looks to retest the July 19th contract low of 1,210 next week. If you are short a futures contract, continue to place the stop loss above the 10-day high. However, the chart structure will improve tremendously come next week; therefore, the monetary risk will also be lowered. I still see no reason to own gold at present. The GDP report was announced this morning as the U.S economy grew by 4.1% which is outstanding in my opinion coupled with the fact that the 10-year note is now yielding 2.97% as both of those fundamental indicators are bearish towards gold prices. The U.S. stock market continues to move higher on a monthly basis as the NASDAQ 100, and the Russell 2000 hit all-time highs as the money flows continue to go into the equity markets & out of the precious metals as I am currently recommending a bullish S&P 500 trade as that market is higher once again today. Gold is trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the short-term trend is to the downside as the volatility remains relatively low as I think we could crack the 1,200 level in next weeks trade so stay short as I'm certainly not recommending any bullish position as the trend is strong to the downside.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is trading at 1,229 an ounce finishing lower by another $12 for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum. I've talked about this market for quite some time as I remain bearish and I think there's a lot of room to run to the downside as 1,200 is in the cards possibly this week. The entire precious metal sector continues to melt away on a daily basis, and I sound like a broken record as I see no reason own gold or any of the precious metals at this time as the U.S. dollar continues its bullish momentum as fundamentally & technically speaking the gold market has nothing bullish at this time. Gold prices are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside, and if 1,200 is broken, we could test last year's low around 1,125 as I still think prices look expensive. The NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 hit another all-time yesterday as that's where all the money flows are flowing, and all of the interest lies in the equity market and not in gold. I think this trend will continue throughout 2018 coupled with the fact that the commodity markets remain extremely weak as the uncertainty about the Trump tariffs have certainly put the kibosh on prices in the short term and if you are short stay short.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,242 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,255 down about $13 for the trading week hitting a fresh contract low as I remain bearish gold and as I have talked about in many previous blogs I think we're headed towards the 1,200 area relatively soon. The precious metals across the board continue their bearish momentum on a daily, and weekly basis as the U.S dollar remains strong, and the U.S equity market also is in a significant bullish trend as the NASDAQ 100, and the Russell 2000 hit all-time highs in yesterday's trade. Money flows continue to come out of the precious metal sector and into the equity market, and I don't see that ending anytime soon. I see no reason to own gold at this time and if you are short, stay short and place the stop loss above the 10-day high standing at 1,267 as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade, therefore, the risk will also be lowered. Gold prices are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as volatility is average at the current time, but investors presently don't want to own anything except for stocks and possibly the crude oil market. I'm not recommending any bullish position in gold as a bottoming pattern has not been formed yet in my opinion as prices still look expensive.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: SOLID
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,258 an ounce after settling last Friday at 1,254 up slightly for the week still right near a 7-month low as the precious metals, in my opinion, remain very weak. As I've written about in previous blogs, I have a bearish bias towards gold prices, and I still think 1,200 is a realistic level that we could be trading at in the coming weeks. The Trump tariff situation has been established today which has been one of the main reasons why we have seen weaker commodity prices across the board over the last several weeks. Gold prices are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as demand for this precious metals is weak at the current time as silver, copper, & platinum all remain bearish trading near contract lows once again this week. As I have talked about previously, all of the interest still lies in the U.S. equity market which is slightly higher in today's trade as the U.S. employment number was very impressive. We added 213,000 jobs as money continue to flow out of gold and into the stock market, and I don't see that trend ending any time soon. If you are short a futures contract place the stop loss at the 10-day high standing at 1,274 as an exit strategy as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade, therefore, the monetary risk will also be lowered so stay short if you already have a bearish position.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY:INCREASING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Pendulum Swing No.5: Back To Success!

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

It’s time to announce the result of the 5th Pendulum swing pushed this January. In that race, I put heating oil (ultimate futures winner in the second half of 2017) vs. wheat futures (the top loser). The Pendulum effect favored the top loser, i.e., wheat to beat heating oil in the six month period. The image below contains the poll results of your voting for that experiment.

Image 1. Poll results

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Chart courtesy of INO.com

Bingo! The majority of you guessed right choosing wheat as a winner and as you can see in the next chart that wheat has gained +17.56% as heating oil gained only +6.76. I would like to express my gratitude to those who chose the experiment success option for your trust! So after the first failure in the second half of 2017 (4th swing), the Pendulum experiment is back on a winning track! Let’s try it again and see what happens.

Chart 1. Half Year Futures Performance (First Half of 2018)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Chart courtesy of finviz.com

This time we will have an interesting race as the winner in the first half of 2018 is not a commodity, but the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) also known as the stock market fear gauge. It gained more than 40%, leaving its rivals far behind amid the roller-coaster ride in the S&P 500.

On the other side, which is red, there is the biggest loser, sugar with an almost 20% loss in the first half of 2018. The supply glut in the sugar market undermined the price for this commodity significantly. Continue reading "Pendulum Swing No.5: Back To Success!" →