Tag: forex

China's Policy About To Hit The Dollar?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


China has resorted to its old habit of stimulating the economy by allowing the Yuan weaken. But while the "remedy" has yet to work its wonders. The side effects, are already emerging—inflation is on the rise.

The People's Bank of China, China's central bank, ought to decide - support China's manufacturing or curb inflation.

What will the Chinese central bank do? And equally important, how will the dollar respond?

China's Central Bank: The Logic

In order for us to try and gauge the next move by China's central bank, we must delve first into the logic. In other words, what is the central bank considering? Now, that's not an easy undertaking, by any stretch of the imagination. Nevertheless, the task has turned a tiny bit simpler. Last month, in an interview with the Caixin Weekly, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, outlined the central bank's policy.

Here are the points to focus on: Continue reading "China's Policy About To Hit The Dollar?" →

Euro Out Of The Woods?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


No doubt the most dramatic event of the FX market this past week was the ECB decision. Draghi, it seems, has finally "cut the mustard." He delivered a powerful response to the latest softness in Eurozone inflation. Essentially, the ECB expanded its QE program to €80Bln of purchases a month and pushed the deposit rate lower into negative territory. But if you expected these moves to play right into the bears' hands (as it has in times past) you might be in for a surprise.

Eurozone: The Good vs. Bad

When the Euro ended up higher in the aftermath of the ECB decision many were caught off guard. Some claimed the Euro's reprieve was the result of Draghi's rhetoric which suggested no more "bazookas" anytime soon.

But what seems more probable is that Draghi's words might just be the consequence rather than the cause. That is the consequence of some green shots that had started to appear in the latest Eurozone data. Those readings suggested that printing money until the apocalypse was not necessarily needed. That's what we call the "good news."

Below are two important indicators for the Eurozone; the balance of trade and industrial production. Both indicators are keenly scrutinized for this export-oriented region.

EU Industrial Production vs. EU Balance Of Trade
Chart courtesy of Tradingeconomics

The balance of trade figure has upticked higher and reaffirmed its rising trend from 2012. This suggests that the Eurozone exports more goods than it buys. Continue reading "Euro Out Of The Woods?" →

Safe Haven Test: 1+ Year After SNB Shock

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


More than a year ago, on the 15th of January 2015, the market was shocked by the sharp move of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoning the cap of the Swiss franc to the euro. I dedicated a special post to that event. This time, I've made a comparative chart for the period from the start of 2015 until today to show you how the SNB's move affected the safe haven currency for the past 13 months.

The Swiss franc is in an inverse cross here (CHFUSD) to comfort your perception of both assets dynamics against the US dollar.

Chart 1. Gold vs. Swiss Franc: Gold Wins Again

Gold vs. Swiss Franc
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The shock was short-lived as the currency quickly lost the gains during the first quarter of 2015. The Franc caught up with falling gold in a very tight correlation. They bottomed at the same time in March of 2015 and then reversed to the upside and peaked in May of 2015. The similarity of trends continued with the metal gapping deeper on the drops. Rare short interruptions of the link occurred last December and this month when gold increased its value and the franc didn't. Continue reading "Safe Haven Test: 1+ Year After SNB Shock" →

Buy The Sterling On Brexit Fears

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Unless you've been incommunicado this past week, you've surely noticed that the FX arena has been dominated by one trade. That, of course, is short Sterling, because Britain appears on the verge of leaving the European Union (EU).

The black swan event that brought about this situation was the surprise announcement by Boris Johnson, the incumbent Mayor of London. Johnson, a rising star of the Tories, is campaigning for Britain to leave the EU. That, of course, was a bit of a game changer. Investors got spooked by the thought of the financial Armageddon that could be visited upon Britain if a Brexit (British Exit) does occur.

Luckily, such panic creates an ideal situation for the rational investor. It's time to exploit and buy the Sterling low and sell it high later on when Brexit fears fade. Continue reading "Buy The Sterling On Brexit Fears" →

Dollar Takes A Plunge; Where Will It Land?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Undoubtedly, this February will be remembered as painful for the dollar. Investors have long awaited the opportunity to short the greenback after a prolonged period of steep gains. When US growth came out surprisingly weak, FX traders pounced, taking the dollar on a brutal roller coaster ride.

Then we had Janet Yellen’s testimony, which suggested banks should be prepared for negative interest rates. Many considered that a hit below the belt as investors were betting on more rate hikes. So now, they’ve got to get ready for negative interest rates? No one was prepared for that remark, despite Yellen’s suggestion that it was only a remote possibility. Of course, now, the million dollar question is, how low can the dollar go?

Short Term Dollar Outlook

As with all corrections, the first catalyst is always about momentum. The question of whether that will lead to a wider correction is fundamental. But what about the imminent target? That’s driven by technical momentum. So what do the technicals say?

Daily Chart of the U.S. Dollar Index
Chart courtesy of Netdania.com

As seen in the Dollar index chart above there are two key levels in this correction. The first is our resistance level at 100. The Dollar index has been attempting to break this level for a while now, though without success. When the Dollar index failed, it was really only a matter of time before the correction would come. And so as it did. Continue reading "Dollar Takes A Plunge; Where Will It Land?" →