Fibonacci Number Series: The work in mathematics by a thirteenth century Italian has had a profound impact on modern man and has yielded a useful technical analysis tool. Born Leonardo of Piza, he is better known in the trading community as Fibonacci. Fibonacci's best known work is Liber Abaci which is generally credited as having introduced the Arabic number system which we use today.
Fibonacci introduced a number sequence in Liber Abaci which is said to be a reflection of human nature. The series is as follows:1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 and on to infinity. The series is arrived at by adding each number to the previous. For example, 1 plus 1 equals 2; 2 plus 1 equals 3; 3 plus 2 equals 5; 5 plus 3 equals 8; 8 plus 5 equals 13; and so on.
I use the Fibonacci series in a number of ways, in terms of both time and price movement. I will briefly discuss some basic time movements.
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The 13-week pattern in hogs is the simplest application of finding market turns based on a Fibonacci number. Markets will often turn on a time span which is a Fibonacci count from a previous important event. For example, look at the monthly cattle chart to see several turns on or about 21 months from a previous high or low.
Time counts can be done on virtually any type of chart. The turns can be counted in terms of days, weeks, months or even years. I have found weekly counts to be the most practical and very effective.
Another powerful method is to look for areas where Fibonacci time counts from various previous lows and highs converge.
In analyzing price action, the simplest way to use Fibonacci numbers (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144...) is on support and resistance levels or pivot levels. For example: 5.00 and 8.00 soy- beans, 5.50 (55) soybeans, 3.00 corn, 500 gold, 5.00 silver, 1.44 oats, 34.00 hogs, 55.00 cattle, and so on.
Lengths of moves in terms of price commonly are a Fibonacci number. The down move on the weekly crude oil chart was $22, which was followed by a $13 rally. Livestock commonly move in increments of $5, $8 or $13. Grains like to move in 8<;, 13<t! and 21d; swings. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills often move in Fibonac- ci increments in terms of both time and price.
The most common application of Fibonacci numbers is the use of ratios within the number series. Many people do not realize that the common retracement levels are derivatives of Fibonacci relationships. Fifty percent is 1 - 2, 66% is 2 - 3 and thereafter, any number in the series divided by the next results in 62 %. Also, starting with 3, any number divided by the second number following it will result in 38% (3 - 8, 5 - 13, etc.).
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Joe DiNapoli is a veteran trader with over twenty-five years of solid market trading experience. He is also a dogged and thorough researcher, an internationally recognized lecturer, and a widely acclaimed author. Joe’s formal education was in electrical engineering and economics. He received his informal education in “the Bunker,” an aptly named trading room packed full of electronics and communications equipment. This is where most of Joe’s early research began. Joe is one of today’s most sought-after experts for his exhaustive investigations into displaced moving averages, his creation of the proprietary “Oscillator Predictor,” and in particular, his practical and unique method of applying Fibonacci ratios to the price axis. A registered CTA, Joe has taught his techniques in the major financial capitals of Europe and Asia, as well as in the United States. His articles have appeared in a wide variety of technical publications across the nation and worldwide. In 1996 alone, Joe taught capacity audiences in twenty-three financial centers around the globe. Joe was a contributing author to High Performance Futures Trading: Power Lessons From the Masters, selected 1990 book of the year by Super Trader’s Almanac. He also wrote the Fibonacci Money Management and Trend Analysis In-Home Trading Course, which has been lauded by professional and novice traders alike. Joe published his newest and most complete work, DiNapoli Levels, in 1997. The book has been hailed by Futures Truth as “one of the best new technical books to come along in a long time.” When Chuck LeBeau (Technical Traders Bulletin) asked his readers for names of successful traders they wanted to see interviewed, Joe DiNapoli’s name came up more often than any other. The Atlanta Constitution cited Joe’s work by referring to the “magical power” of Fibonacci ratios in the marketplace. Joe has often made use of this magic to make both startling and uncannily accurate market predictions, particularly in stock market indexes and interest rate futures. As the president of Coast Investment Software, Inc., located on Siesta Key in Sarasota, Florida, Joe continues to develop and deploy “high accuracy” trading methods, using a combination of leading and lagging indicators in unique and innovative ways. He conducts a limited number of private tutorials each year at his trading room and he also makes his trading approach available to others via software and trading course materials.