Minutes show Fed backs stimulus through midyear

A majority of Federal Reserve policymakers want to continue extraordinary bond purchases to help boost the economy at least through the middle of the year, according to minutes from the Fed's last meeting released Wednesday.

But many members indicated they want to slow and eventually end the program soon after that, as long as the the job market and economy show sustained improvement. The Fed's purchases of about $85 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds are intended to lower long-term interest rates and support more borrowing and spending.

The minutes of the Fed's March 19-20 meeting were released at 9 a.m. EDT  five hours earlier than planned after the Fed inadvertently sent them a day earlier to congressional staffers and lobbyists. Continue reading "Minutes show Fed backs stimulus through midyear"

5 Critical Threats To The Bull Market

Nothing good lasts forever, including the amazing bull market that investors have enjoyed this year.

Fueled by ultra-low interest rates, solid corporate earnings and a Federal Reserve that says it will do whatever it takes to jump-start the economy, stocks have been breaking record after record as they surge higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied more than 1,800 points since Jan. 1 -- and money keeps pouring into the market. Continue reading "5 Critical Threats To The Bull Market"

Poll: Do you think the bank stress test is credible?

The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that 17 of the nation's 18 largest banks could survive a severe economic meltdown. The Federal Reserve estimated that these banks had enough reserve capital to lose upwards of $462 billion dollars and could still survive if the economy were to enter another recession similar to the one we just had.

Of the 18 banks tested by the Fed, only Ally Financial, the former finance arm of General Motors (GM), would sustain big enough losses to potentially put it out of business. All of the other banks would have enough capital to make it through. That leads to today's poll question...

Do you think the bank stress test is credible?

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You Can't Handle the Truth

As a result of the fallout of the Barclay's Libor scandal and resignation of its Chairman and CEO, it was further revealed that the Federal Reserve was aware of this fraud and manipulation for years. What's a trader or investor to do with such information and any other information reported by governments, central banks, and corporations? The message is loud and clear: if we don't think you can handle the truth, we are not giving it to you. The obvious next question is- What other reports might the powers that be, cooking? And this beat goes on, and on, and on... Continue reading "You Can't Handle the Truth"

U.S. Financial System: Is It Finally Stable?

By Elliott Wave International

Four years after we brushed up against "financial Armageddon," did you think you'd be reading this?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said...banks need to have more capital at hand in order to ensure the financial system is stable. Bernanke said regulators were taking steps to force financial institutions to hold higher capital buffers...

- Reuters, April 9

It appears our financial system is still not as stable as it needs to be. But guess who relaxed the banking system's "capital buffers" in the first place?

The Fed increased the credit in the system in the 1990s by the de facto removal of reserve requirements for banks.

- Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, November 2011

Prechter's September 2011 Theorist provides this additional insight:

In the late 1990s and mid 2000s, the loan-to-deposit ratio for U.S. banks was nearly 1.00, meaning that almost all deposits were lent out. That shortfall alone was a serious problem, because if even 5% of depositors had decided to withdraw their money, banks would have been unable to pay. Some of the banks' loans were quickly callable, but by 2006, the credit-fueled real estate boom had claimed a large percentage of outstanding loans, both inside and outside the banking system. These loans are not quickly callable. The problem was serious in 2002 and enormous in 2006. Now it has become acute, because many loans are becoming fossilized, as the market for mortgage investing has dried up while foreclosures on the "collateral" have been slowed by court actions and politics. Continue reading "U.S. Financial System: Is It Finally Stable?"