Tag: EUR/USD (FOREX:EURUSD)

Bull Market Or Bear Market, Which Is It?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

There's no doubt that the dramatic 800 point rally we have seen the past three days is practically unprecedented, but did it change the major trend of the market?

The simple answer is no, the longer-term trend for the equity markets at the moment remains negative. But please don't misunderstand what I'm saying, I was as surprised as anybody at the velocity of the rally which exceeded the Fibonacci retracement levels I discussed recently.

Today should be an interesting day to say the least, and I doubt seriously that the market can close higher and would expect to see some sort of pullback from the current levels. There is also what I would consider to be a major resistance based on the highs that were hit on Feb. 1st at the 1939 level on the S&P 500. Providing that level holds, we are still basically in a downward trending market, albeit a choppy one.

Gold

The pullback in gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) appears to be consolidating, which is good given its rapid move to the upside. In an ideal world, I would like to see gold continue to consolidate around the $1200 level before once again moving higher. I still believe that gold has broken the back of its four-year bear trend and has now embarked on a long-term bullish trend that could take it to the year 2020. Be sure to watch the Trade Triangles for signals that gold has once again embarked on an upward move. Continue reading "Bull Market Or Bear Market, Which Is It?" →

Why The Euro Is Rising And Why It Can't Last

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


For the investors who are watching the Euro, its latest behavior might appear bewildering. After all, the ECB, slightly undershooting expectations, still increased its target asset purchases to roughly €1.5tn. At the same time, the ECB cut the deposit rate to -0.3%. And let's not forget the goings on over on the other side of the Atlantic. There, the Federal Reserve is gearing towards its first rate hike in almost a decade. What, then, could possibly incentivize investors to buy Euros? And can it last?

Draghi's Words Hit a Nerve

When investors expect more central bank easing, they also expect the obligatory rhetoric. But what they hate is when the rhetoric is of a very specific sort. In this case, it is when a central banker stresses the limitations of monetary stimulus. Yet, in practically the same breath, they drive home the need for more government input. And essentially, that is exactly what Mario Draghi said.

Now, when the Fed unleashed similar rhetoric, it was seen as a signal that its ammunition might be running out. Earlier this year, the BoJ had made a similar statement in an attempt to lower expectations of more stimulus. Continue reading "Why The Euro Is Rising And Why It Can't Last" →

Death By 1000 Rate Hikes

Posted on by The INO.com Team

As we rapidly approach the end of the third quarter it would appear as though the Fed's strategy is to let out these "trial balloons," saying that interest rates will be raised later this year.

The latest Fed spokesman to float another trial balloon was the New York Federal Reserve president, William Dudley. Mr. Dudley is a voting member of the Fed's policy setting committee. Mr. Dudley stated that the Fed will likely raise rates later this year. How many times do they have to tell us that?

I have said this before and I believe the Fed has no idea how to get out of this pickle that it has got the country in. This addiction to low cost money is not healthy and I was happy to see this morning that Carl Icahn has the same mindset. Mr. Icahn thought the Fed should have raised interest rates six months ago, I would've said at least 12 months ago, but all that is a moot point right now.

With only three trading days left till end of the third quarter, all the major markets I track are lower for the month and the quarter. I view this as a significant market clue indicating that the markets have not yet finished on the downside.

Here is were the markets closed last month. All of these major indices are lower for both the month and the quarter. Continue reading "Death By 1000 Rate Hikes" →

3 Stocks That Are Headed South

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Wednesday is often referred to as hump day, meaning that it is the middle of the week and just a few days to the weekend. Today could also be referred to as "dump day" as early indications are that investors are dumping stocks across the board.

Today I have three stocks that I think could move significantly lower from where they're currently trading.

The first one is Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) which gave a weekly sell signal yesterday and looks to be in trouble to the downside.

The next stock is the fashion house/label of Michael Kors Holdings LTD. (NYSE:KORS). This stock also flashed a weekly sell signal yesterday and looks to be headed to the downside. I will be looking at where you should sell this stock, were you should put your stop and how far down I think the stock can go. Continue reading "3 Stocks That Are Headed South" →

Repeat, The Trend Is Your Friend

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Throughout my trading career, two things of have stuck in my mind that I learned a long time ago on the floors of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. I was trading for my own account and a select few customers in a space that was both hostile and friendly at the same time.

The first was, "the trend is your friend." Trends tend to persist longer than most people expect. Just look at the recent bullish trend in the equity markets that has been going on now for six years. By any mark in history this is an old and tired bull market. Only one time in history did a bull market trend ever extend to seven years. As they say when you climb Mount Everest, we are now in thin air.

"The trend is your friend" is an amazing thing to remember when you are trading because that is where the big money is made.

The next saying I learned as a young trader in the pits of Chicago was, Continue reading "Repeat, The Trend Is Your Friend" →