Tag: Don DeBartolo

Beyond the "Spotlight"

Posted on by The INO.com Team
For the Week of May 28, 2013 The GBE Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:

Let’s take a look at two energy market sector markets as we enter the “Summer Driving Season”.

July 2013 Crude Oil

Based on Cash charts, the Crude Oil contract tends to sharply drop in June, slightly retrace in July, and gradually sell-off through the remainder of the year. Even though this data was tracked over a twenty-five year period, the contract might not always follow this pattern due to fundamental and technical reasons. The July 2013 chart appears to have found resistance along an upper trend line and technically setup to sell-off. This falls right in line with the Cash chart. Continue reading "Beyond the "Spotlight"" →

Beyond the "Spotlight"

Posted on by The INO.com Team
For the Week of May 13, 2013
By: Don DeBartolo

The GBE Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.

Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:

June 2013 British Pound

The June 2013 British Pound futures contract closed below a lower trend line on Friday. There are touches on the trend line at 1.4823 (3/12/13), 1.5027 (4/04/13), and 1.5192 (4/23/13). The Trend Seeker (a US Chart Company tool to help identify market trend) is Neutral. The MACD, a trend indicator, is bearish and above the baseline. Although MACD is bearish, until the Trend Seeker changes to a Downtrend, there is no entry trigger confirmation. Continue reading "Beyond the "Spotlight"" →

To Exercise, Or Not To Exercise (Options), That Is The Question

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In a previous article, I explained commodity option expiration, exercising, and assignment. I noted a long (purchased) option position (call or put) has the right to exercise the contract. To make an informed decision, I will explain the result of exercising an option contract.

A commodity option contract is a decaying asset that will expire. As an option contract draws near its expiration date, set by the exchanges, both the time value and intrinsic value diminish. Time value is premium in relation to days until expiration. Intrinsic value is the premium in relation to the strike price’s distance from underlying futures contract price. Note that volatility will also play a role in the calculated premium price. The exception to intrinsic value diminishing is an in-the-money contract. At that point, the intrinsic value is a one-to-one ratio of the strike price in relation to the underlying futures contract. For example, a long April 2013 Gold 1600 call will be valued at 50 points (or $5,000) if futures are at 1650.0 on option expiration (March 25, 2013). On the other hand, if futures are at 1600.0 or below on expiration, the option contract is valued at zero. An in-the-money contract, before expiration, will also have time value included in the premium price. However, because there are a number of finite days until expiration, the time value diminishes from day one. Continue reading "To Exercise, Or Not To Exercise (Options), That Is The Question" →

Beyond the "Spotlight"

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The GBE Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.

Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:

December 2012 Australian Dollar

The December 2012 Australian Dollar contract closed at 1.0305 below a lower trend line on November 15. There are three touches on the lower trend line at 1.0089 (10/08/12), 1.0191 (10/23/12), and 1.0340 (11/14/12). In the same November 15 trading session the MACD Indicator crossed over to a bearish signal; the Stochastic indicator crossed over earlier in the week. The market is currently trading below a 20 day exponential Moving Average but right at the 50 day Moving Average. The Trend Seeker (a US Chart Company tool to help identify market trend) is still Up. It appears the market will need further downside movement for the trend to flip bearish to confirm a short entry. The ADX is at 14.05 showing signs of a lack of Momentum currently. A break of a support line consisting of lows at 1.0095 (7/27/12), 1.0077 (9/05/12), and 1.0089 (10/08/12) can see prices break the 1.000 level and test the twelve month low of .9545 (6/01/12). Continue reading "Beyond the "Spotlight"" →

Beyond the "Spotlight"

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The GBE Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.

Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:

December 2012 Soybean Oil

The December 2012 Soybean Oil contract has potentially formed a 1-2-3 Top Formation. The contract made a new 12 month high on September 4 at 58.60. This high sets up the number one point of the formation. The market pulled back to 55.68 on September 12. This low sets up the number two point of the formation. Friday, September 14, the contract traded as high as 57.80. If this price holds, it would setup the number three point of the formation. The market sold-off in the afternoon and on the close, so it's likely the market continues to sell-off into Monday's session. A break of the number two point of 55.68 would trigger an entry to the downside. There was a surge in trading volume on days when the first two points of the formation were established. Currently the Trend Seeker (a US Chart Company tool) is Up. This trend could reverse if the market trades through the support level near the number two point. A potential stop loss could be the number 2 point of the formation. Potential targets could be the 51.88 low (8/8/12) or the twelve month low of 48.64 (6/15/12). Continue reading "Beyond the "Spotlight"" →