Tag: Dollar Index (NYBOT:DX)

If You Want To Know What's Going On In The Markets...

Posted on by The INO.com Team

If you want to know what's going on in the markets, just look in the mirror. In one moment, investors are bullish and the next moment, very bearish. It just shows you the skittish nature of the market that we are in.

How do you feel about the market? Leave a comment below and tell us how feel.

Despite last week's wild gyrations, the markets closed lower for the week. This is the big picture you really want to watch and pay attention to. Looking at the S&P 500, as it represents a broad swath of the markets, this index closed out last week at 1,982.85, down 1.3% for the week. This was the lowest close in this index in over six weeks, not exactly a stellar picture. Again, when you look at the bigger picture, a clearer picture emerges of what's going on.

The same dismal story can be applied to the NASDAQ that closed down 1.44% for the week, closing at 4,513.44. Last week's close represents the lowest close for this index in six weeks, again not a good sign.

The Dow also closed lower for the week but still managed to have its third-highest weekly close in history. This morning the DOW gave its first serious indication that things are beginning to come apart as it joined the same picture as both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. A weekly Trade Triangle flashed a exit and sideline position for this index. Now, just like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the DOW is indicating that you should be out of market at the present time and on the sidelines.

In other markets... Continue reading "If You Want To Know What's Going On In The Markets..." →

A Closer Look at the US Dollar

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Using the standard weekly currency chart we followed along for months as the Euro found resistance at the long-term downtrend line as expected, the commodity currencies long ago lost major support and non-confirmed the commodity complex and the US dollar moved from a hold of critical support, to a trend line breakout, to its current impulsive and over bought status.  It is time now for a closer look at Uncle Buck since this reserve currency is key to so many asset markets the world over.

As the charts below show, USD is over bought on both daily and weekly time frames.  But the monthly is interesting because its big picture view is that of a basing/bottoming pattern, and it is bullish.  That is a long-term director, so regardless of what happens in the short-term, a process of unwinding the hyper-inflationist ‘Dollar Collapse’ cult is ongoing.  Signs point to disinflation toward deflation.

We’ll start with a daily chart and then ascend right through the weekly and then the monthly to take the pulse of USD.

As noted, the daily chart below is very over bought.  It is currently consolidating the big jerk upward that has come against Euro-negative policy from the ECB and an increasing drum beat about an eventual rise in the Fed Funds rate in the US.  People are finally catching on to the fact that the US economy has been strengthening since early 2013 and that the Fed is looking out of touch holding ZIRP despite this strength.

So the dollar is getting bid up.  The question the chart asks is whether the current consolidation will work-off of another over bought situation, or is a prelude to a reversal?  The answer is going to be key to the bounce potential in many asset markets, but especially commodities, which are generally tanking and precious metals, with gold eventually due to firm after it finishes its bear market and its fundamentals come in line.

usd.daily

You will recognize the weekly chart as it is the top panel of our long-running multi-currency chart.  RSI has been added to this view to show the over bought level.  Note that the weekly has joined the daily in over bought status on this most recent drive, whereas it was merely healthy – and not over bought – the last time the daily registered an over bought reading in July. Continue reading "A Closer Look at the US Dollar" →

Death of the Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).

usd.daily

This is not to say that the US dollar has real value. How can it when it is hopelessly dragged down by a national debt-for-growth obsession. But as with gold, value is one thing and price is quite another. It is just that one (USD) receives a price bid due to a ‘nowhere else to hide’ sort of mentality by the majority when asset market liquidity becomes constrained and the other (Gold) receives a more solid value bid, over time.

We saw what happened when gold got the price bid as the panicked ‘Knee Jerks’ flooded in during the acute phase of the Euro crisis in 2011. That was the exclamation point on the first major phase of the gold bull market and the dawn of a cyclical bear market.

We continue to await economic contraction, in which the price of the USD can benefit for a while as capital comes out of assets and into what it thinks is a safe haven. Gold remember, has been soundly discredited as a store of value and that has been the bear market’s job… well done I might add. Continue reading "Death of the Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really?" →