Tag: crude oil analysis

Copper Update: Metal Signals Short Term Bottom For Oil

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


In my previous update, I recommended covering your short positions in Copper to save a decent profit from the sudden reversal. The next day the price dipped further down to a round figure favoring buyback. Then until today, we saw volatile sideways trading inside of the 2.025/2.125 range. Currently, the metal has traded on the upper side of it. In the meantime crude oil has plummeted to an 11-year low and the two assets have diverged sharply since.

Chart 1: Copper-Crude Oil Comparative chart: The Chain Has Been Broken

Copper-Crude Oil Comparative chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The days following my last Copper/Oil post, Crude oil moved $2 higher as expected, but it couldn't close above the $44 mark and the oversupplied market brought the price down sharply. Despite that, Copper stood still charting a sideways pattern and expanding the triangle. Supply cut fears amid a weakening US dollar have spurred demand for the metal. Continue reading "Copper Update: Metal Signals Short Term Bottom For Oil" →

Will OPEC Be Turkeys Again?

Posted on by Adam Feik

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Last year, while we Americans were busy overindulging on turkey and all the fixings, OPEC ministers pulled a fast one on us. While we innocently watched football and took naps, the price of WTI crude plummeted from $74 to $68 in response to OPEC’s announcement it would leave its oil production target unchanged at 30 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Until that weekend, oil in the $60s or $70s seemed unsustainably low.

Of course, even before OPEC’s big Turkey Day declaration, oil had already fallen about 30% from its June highs of $107, due to burgeoning supplies. But the summer swoon turned out to be just the warmup for the rest of oil’s big 17-month collapse (so far). OPEC’s Thanksgiving 2014 meeting sent prices reeling and continued pressures have kept crude near its lows (around $40) even today. Continue reading "Will OPEC Be Turkeys Again?" →

Copper Update: "Black Gold" Is Too Wild

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Last time I shared with you a clear signal from Crude oil to short Copper for a good dip down. Oil has dropped as foreseen from the $47.7 level. That's down a good $8 (17%) and it dragged Copper down along the way. This confirms Copper's tight relationship with Crude oil. Copper plummeted for a nice gain from a short position which has reached .35 (15% smaller than from Oil short) on Friday's low ($2.03). My original targets haven’t been met in both instruments ($ 37.7 Oil and $1.9 Copper), and that is why I would like to discuss my concerns with you.

Again we will start with the leading instrument in my regular cross-instrument analysis. Continue reading "Copper Update: "Black Gold" Is Too Wild" →

Copper Update: Crashing Crude Oil Lures Down Melting Copper

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


In my previous Copper update in September, I proposed readers to cover shorts in Copper ($2.32 level) and to watch Crude Oil for further clues as the “black gold” rocketed for a worrisome $10 in 3 days while Copper was quietly sleeping, unaware in its sideways “bed”. Indeed, the metal started to elevate with a two-day gap following Crude Oil, confirming that the signal was valid, and Copper reached $2.5.

Crude Oil Daily Chart: Bears Have Attacked and Bulls At Halfway

Crude Oil Daily Chart
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

Let’s start from the leading instrument’s chart above. Last time, I assumed that Crude oil should have reverse down ahead of the downtrend touching a point at $53 and it reversed earlier than I expected – just below $51. This was due to huge selling pressure in the market. Continue reading "Copper Update: Crashing Crude Oil Lures Down Melting Copper" →

Is Gold Foretelling An Impending Greek Disaster?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today is the first day of spring and maybe this is the cause for the spring in the markets. March 20th also happens to be "International Happiness Day" and I'm sure that many investors have a smile on their face today with the way the markets are acting in Europe, Asia and the U.S.

Today, I'll be looking at gold prices because they are acting and doing something that they haven't done in a long time and I want to share that with you in today's video. It is impossible to pinpoint what is causing gold to rally, whether it is short covering or the potential that Greece is going to implode any day now. Either way, it's not important what is causing the rally. The important thing to remember when trading is to get the direction right and not worry about what is causing the trend. I remember when I was in the trading pits in Chicago, I asked someone why the market was going up and he said to me, "It doesn't matter, it's going up". There is a lot of truth in that comment. That's one of the big takeaways in trading, don't over think markets.

As I write this commentary before the market opens, we could be seeing the equity markets close well towards the end of the day and possibly closing in new high ground on short equities before the weekend. The NASDAQ is very close to breaching the 5000 level, a close over that area today can be viewed as being very positive for the weekend.

Crude oil also appears to be finding some support at lower levels but has not yet reversed trend and turned around. I will be looking at that market to see where the key points are for a trend reversal to the upside. Remember markets can get very crowded on one side of the ledger when everybody believes that the trend will continue and go on forever. When that happens, a market tends to reverse and go the other way. The reason that happens is because markets are forward-looking trading instruments.

I will be getting into the recent Trade Triangle scan today to find new trades that may be just emerging. You won't want to miss that part of today's video.

This being Friday, I will of course, be looking for weekend trades using our "52-week highs on a Friday" strategy.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub