Various Markets; Weekly Views

By: Gary Tanashian of NFTRH

It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy makers), market indicators (VIX, Equity Put/Call, Gold-Silver ratio, Sentiment, Participation, etc.) and other views beneath the surface of things. So much so that I sometimes forget that people might like to see simple nominal charting as a frame of reference.

We update charts like these every week in NFTRH, but I have done relatively few for public review. So here it is, a simple weekly chart update of various markets, with very limited commentary interference from me.

US Stock Market

As you can see, US indexes have so far held critical support. Best projected case would be a bounce to SPX 2000 (+/-). The market continues to roll over on the intermediate trend as of now.

spx, ndx and dow

If the above is suspect to bearish, the broader US indexes are just bearish. Lower lows and lower highs abound and resistance is noted. Continue reading "Various Markets; Weekly Views"

3 Ways To Profit From Oil - No Matter Where The Prices Are

By: Dave Forest of Street Authority

I recently returned from a three-week stint in Asia. After a long trip I always take time to go through my e-mail and catch up on news and reports coming in from across the commodities world.

One small but revealing item caught my eye.

No, I'm not talking about the collapse in oil prices. In fact, as I'll explain in a moment, the way my Scarcity Real Wealth readers and I will profit from this has nothing to do with oil prices at all.

Let me explain... Continue reading "3 Ways To Profit From Oil - No Matter Where The Prices Are"

Commodities Recovery: An FX Game Changer?

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


It's been less than a week since the big chiefs of the commodities world met at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, situated along the beautiful banks of Lake Geneva, yet already the markets have begun to adjust its collective expectations. So what's all the fuss about?

Quite simply, all of the commodity moguls, from Gunvor to Glencore to Vitol, all among the largest private companies in the business, have proffered one clear message and it is this: That they, nearly to a one, expect a healthy recovery in commodity prices. With all of the big shots expressing an upbeat view it becomes clear that they are acting on far more information than the rest of us, as one might surely expect, as being in the commodity business allows them ready access to more tangible and viable data. That nearly unanimous upbeat tone should be taken as a rather clear sign that we are about to see a bounce back in commodity prices. Surely, with currencies such as the Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie and the Norwegian Krone, and many more currencies beyond those, being highly sensitive to commodities prices, we are likely to see perhaps a significant impact in the FX arena.

Two Big Predictions

Although the talk at the Commodities Summit was on commodity prices, in general, it was evident that two sectors had drawn more attention than the others. Oil, naturally, because of its importance to the global economy but also Iron Ore, a key ingredient in the making of steel and one of the major commodities exported to China. Continue reading "Commodities Recovery: An FX Game Changer?"

Stocks Peak One Year After Bonds (History Set to Repeat?)

Financial parallels between the 1920s and today

By Elliott Wave International

When the financial media mentions the late 1920s, they usually mean the 1929 stock market top. But today's investors can also learn from what happened in 1928. That was the year that the bond market topped, while commodities peaked even sooner.

You can see this for yourself in a chart published in the September 2013 issue of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

In the deflationary collapse of 1929-32, commodities fell
from lower peaks, not higher peaks; stocks fell
from all-time highs down to the bottom; and bond
prices fell from an all-time high a year earlier.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, July-August,
2013

These markets could see a similar outcome in the near future: Commodities peaked in 2008, while Treasury bonds topped in 2012. The high in the Dow Industrials remains December 31, 2013. Continue reading "Stocks Peak One Year After Bonds (History Set to Repeat?)"

Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction

The 'Commodity' segment, excerpted and expanded upon, from NFTRH 251:

The commodity complex is famous for a sort of 'Whack-a-Mole' quality to it.  Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?  Uranium (2007)?  Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)?

Well today none of them are doing much.  Oil went up but could be topping, Copper went down but is bouncing hard, Uranium, Gas and Grains are nowhere.  The result is this… Continue reading "Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction"