Tag: China

U.S. Energy Self-Sufficiency Nothing But 'Feel-Good BS'

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The Energy Report: In September 2012, you described $100/barrel (bbl) as the new normal. What market factors are behind today's price of $93/bbl?

Bob Moriarty: If the new normal is $100/bbl in any given market, the price should be as high as $115/bbl and as low as $85/bbl. The price will continue to swing around that. Even with the Bakken coming on-line and other domestic U.S. production occurring in the U.S., cheap oil is gone.

TER: So when you look at oil consumption, do you look just at the U.S. or do you look globally? For example, what role does China play?

BM: I am concerned with U.S. consumption as a measure of how the economy is doing. Oil use in the U.S. has been declining since 2008 because economic activity has been declining since then. I think oil consumption in the U.S. is the best indicator of economic activity because there is direct correlation between the two. [See first chart below]

China is an indicator of global consumption. I am not concerned with global consumption. But if you want to measure what is happening in China, look at the spot price of copper, which is hitting new lows. China is slowing down. [See second chart below] Continue reading "U.S. Energy Self-Sufficiency Nothing But 'Feel-Good BS'" →

Bullish on Oil Prices? Two Reasons You Might Change Your Mind

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The Energy Report: Marshall, before the Great Recession hit, we appeared to be on target for $150 per barrel ($150/bbl) Brent in mid-2008, and we were hearing forecasts of $200/bbl before the end of that year. But things have changed. I'd really like to get your fix on how you perceive energy markets have been altered over the past five years.

Marshall Adkins: For the oil market specifically, two massive structural changes have occurred since 2008. First, U.S. oil supply from horizontal drilling in tight shale formations has created a reversal of the four decade-long decline we've seen in U.S. oil production. When I say reversal, I'm not just talking a minor blip; I'm talking about erasing a 40-year decline within five years. This truly is a massive structural change to U.S. oil markets.

On top of that, in conjunction with the Great Recession, the world has figured out that there's too much debt, and most of the developed world is going through a deleveraging period. Historically, whenever you deleverage, you get subpar economic growth, and subpar oil demand growth. For the past five years, we've seen significantly lower demand growth for oil compared to the prior two decades. I expect that to continue, and I expect U.S. oil production to continue marching higher. Continue reading "Bullish on Oil Prices? Two Reasons You Might Change Your Mind" →

How Do the Chinese View the Gold Market?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Have you ever wondered what the typical Chinese gold investor thinks about our Western ideas of gold? We read month after month about demand hitting record after record in their country – how do they view our buying habits?

Since 2007, China's demand for gold has risen 27% per year. Its share of global demand doubled in the same time frame, from 10% to 21%. And this occurred while prices were rising.

Americans are buying precious metals, no doubt. You'll see in a news item below that gold and silver ETF holdings just hit record levels. The US Mint believes that 2012 volumes will surpass those of 2011.

But let's put the differences into perspective. This chart shows how much gold various countries are buying relative to their respective GDPs. Continue reading "How Do the Chinese View the Gold Market?" →

Why My Portfolio Gained 30% This Year: John Stephenson

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The Energy Report: John, In your last interview, you were pretty optimistic about much higher oil prices. What can you attribute the oil market's recent weakness to? Did everyone just get spooked?

John Stephenson: There was a rumor that the U.S. was going to release strategic petroleum reserves, which would lower prices at the pump and also lower prices in the world market. It would be a temporary fix, because the actual total volume of the reserve is only about a month's worth of U.S. consumption. Nonetheless, it would definitely lower prices. There's some waning of geopolitical risk, and some of that risk rhetoric was positive for oil prices.

The European ban on importing Iranian oil has had a pretty dramatic impact on tightening supply. It's roughly equivalent to when Libya was offline because of its revolution. That same level of production, about 1.5 million barrels (MMbbl) is off the global market now, creating a fairly tight supply picture. Then there is the Israel/Iran nuclear confrontation, which has also driven oil prices higher. Realistically, there's very strong support for oil prices in the $9095 per barrel (bbl) range because one of the big sources of demand for oil has actually turned out to be the Middle East itself, where the producers are becoming their own best customers. They're like drug dealers getting hooked on their own supply, and their consumption growth rates are double those of China. Continue reading "Why My Portfolio Gained 30% This Year: John Stephenson" →

Invest in What China Needs to Buy: Don Coxe

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The US is no longer the safest place in the world to invest, says Don Coxe, a strategic advisor to the BMO Financial Group. While US-based companies are forced to wade through red tape and legal challenges, relatively lax regulation in emerging economies created stiff competition. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Coxe explains how investors should position themselves as China and India rise to superpower status.

The Energy Report: You are famous for taking the long view of the political economy, Don. What does the machinery of history tell us about the likely future of the Western world as measured against the newly industrializing economies, including China, India, and Brazil?

Don Coxe: For the first 17 centuries of the so-called Christian Era, China and India together generated about 40-50% of global gross domestic product (GDP), due to the sheer size of their populations. But when they did not participate in the Industrial Revolution, the relatively small number of people living in Europe and North America were able to take over 70% of global GDP. The East stagnated. Continue reading "Invest in What China Needs to Buy: Don Coxe" →