Tag: China

"Winter Is Coming"… Hungry For Gold

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Behind The Wall

I dedicated my last post to China which is diversifying foreign reserves with large Gold purchases. This time, I want to share my thoughts about a reviving empire and the northern neighbor of China.

The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is the largest union on Earth by territory. It is so vast that on one side of it people try to survive in Arctic frost and on the opposite side one can enjoy a mild winter full of sunny days skiing in the high Kyrgyz mountains. The union ranks fifth by GDP (PPP) and seventh by population and it’s only the beginning. The member states are (in alphabetical order): Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. Continue reading ""Winter Is Coming"… Hungry For Gold" →

Currency Devaluation's Dangerous Role in Deflation

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Elliott Wave International

The following article on currency devaluation's role in deflation is from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. EWI has just released a new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby, to help investors prepare now for the deflationary threat they see around the corner. Click here to read the new report >>

China's economy is slowing. Its stock market began to crash back in July. And the volatility rocking financial markets has been widely linked to the recent yuan devaluations by China's central bank.

"Surprise" has been a common word used by investors and financial pundits to describe the devaluation -- as in, "China's central bank surprise devaluation of yuan."

But what if we told you it wasn't a surprise -- it was in fact an expected event?

Below are three excerpts from analysis that EWI's own Chris Carolan published in his Sun-Tue-Thu Asian-Pacific Short Term Update on July 30 (several days before China's central bank first move to devalue the yuan against the U.S. dollar), then on Aug. 9 and Aug.11 (bold added).

The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update , July 30:

Continue reading "Currency Devaluation's Dangerous Role in Deflation" →

Fed Rate Decision: Buy the Dollar on the Dips

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The Fed rate decision is approaching quickly. Will the Fed choose to ignore the headline inflation figure and China's woes and decide to press on with a rate hike this month? No one really knows what they'll decide. One might conclude then, that if the Fed rate decision is a guessing game, so is the Dollar, right? Wrong! In fact, the Fed rate decision could be one of the best times to pile on to the Dollar and buy it cheap.

Fed Rate Hike Not Priced In

With all that talk of a Fed rate hike it might seem that a Fed rate hike is now priced in. But that's not the case. As the data from the CME Fed Fund futures prices, the market sees only a 25% chance for the Fed to raise rates this September. And that could explain why the Dollar Index took a dip over the past weeks.

CME Group FEDWatch

But here's where it gets really interesting. When we move forward on the calendar and examine the probability of a rate hike by December, the likelihood jumps to 59%. If we continue to move on into March 2016, that probability jumps to 77%. That means markets are almost certain that the Fed will raise rates at least once in the coming two quarters. Continue reading "Fed Rate Decision: Buy the Dollar on the Dips" →

Has China Lost Control?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


This morning's newswires are filled with stories of yet another dramatic intervention by China in the Yuan exchange rate. This time, though, it's in favor of the Yuan. That news, more than any, has investors alarmed as it seems to suggest that China has lost control. To that, I say how can you lose something you never had?

China Never Had Full Control

China and its financial authorities, namely the Peoples Bank of China, are viewed as the effective forces controlling the Chinese money market. That means not just the currency but also the financial markets and inflation. Hence, the state of alarm currently dominating markets makes sense. But the fact is that China never really had the control that investors believed it had. Because simultaneously controlling monetary policy and the currency is like "trying to hold the stick at both ends;" it's just not possible. Continue reading "Has China Lost Control?" →

Is The Market Doing Push-Ups?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

It sure seems that way, doesn't? We are up one day and down the next. I'm not surprised with the market's action, it is what I expected after such a big drop.

It's Thursday and while this is an important day, I think Friday is going to be a more important day. Last Friday we saw the Dow Jones close at 16,643.10, the S&P closed at 1,988.87 and the NASDAQ closed at 4,828.54. As I write this, all three major indices are lower than last Friday's close and are down for the week. However, they are not lower than the recent Friday low close we witnessed just a few weeks ago when the Dow closed at 16,459.75, the S&P 500 at 1970.89 and the NASDAQ at 4717.16. Those closes in my mind are all crucial, if they are broken we could see a continuation to the downside. If they hold, it gives hope to the bulls that this was just a short-term correction and the markets will start going back up. Continue reading "Is The Market Doing Push-Ups?" →