TSLA vs. BYDDY: The Battle for Electric Pickup Truck Supremacy

China, the world's largest and fiercely competitive EV market, saw a 38% surge in sales of "new energy vehicles" last year, totaling 9.49 million units. This accounted for nearly 70% of global EV sales, raising concerns among traditional automakers and Tesla, Inc.'s (TSLA) Elon Musk about China's potential dominance.

Concurrently, BYD Company Limited (BYDDY), a Chinese EV giant, is set to unveil its first electrified pickup truck globally. Though details on powertrain, performance, and pricing remain undisclosed, BYDDY released images featuring an orange and blue camouflaged truck, signaling its entry into the new energy pickup segment.

Competing with TSLA's Cybertruck, Ford Motor Company's (F) Ranger and F-150 Lightning, and Toyota Motor Corporation's (TM) Hilux, the upcoming BYDDY pickup marks a new frontier in the electric pickup market.

That said, TSLA's Cybertruck, launched in November 2023, faces criticism for battery range discrepancies, premature breakdowns, and durability issues like rust and corrosion. Initially promised at $39,900 with a 500-mile range, TSLA's Cybertruck now starts at $60,900, with deliveries pushed to 2025 due to production constraints.

Musk has admitted challenges in production, forecasting a financially challenging first year. Moreover, with the Cybertruck as its latest passenger vehicle since 2020, TSLA's global expansion might stall, leaving markets outside North America waiting for new releases for years to come.

Financial Performance Comparison Between BYDDY and TSLA

In the final quarter of 2023, the Shenzhen-based carmaker saw a surge in net profit, surpassing TSLA to become the top seller of electric vehicles globally. Revenue soared by 49.8% year-over-year to ¥180.04 billion ($24.89 billion), with gross profit reaching ¥38.21 billion ($5.28 billion), a 78% increase year-over-year.

Additionally, BYDDY’s net income attributable to common stockholders reached ¥8.67 billion ($1.20 billion), up from ¥4.13 billion ($571.02 million) in the previous year's quarter. Sales volume spiked by 38%, with over 526,000 EVs sold, nearly 80,000 more than TSLA's sales.

BYDDY, for the second consecutive year, outpaced TSLA, producing 3 million new energy vehicles (NEVs) compared to Tesla's 1.84 million. BYDDY's cars, mostly priced lower than TSLA's, offer hybrid and fully electric options, posing a significant threat to competitors, as acknowledged by Musk.

In the fiscal fourth quarter of 2023, TSLA's total revenue increased 3% year-over-year to $25.17 billion. However, its gross profit declined 23.2% year-over-year to $4.44 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA decreased 26.9% from the year-ago value to $3.95 billion.

Moreover, the company’s non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP EPS attributable to common stockholders reduced 39.5% and 40.3% from the prior year's period to $2.49 billion and $0.71, respectively.

Musk now recognizes BYDDY's potential dominance in the EV market despite initial ridicule, foreseeing a scenario where they could outperform most other car companies globally. He said, "Frankly, if there are not trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world."

The Two Industry Giants’ Business Prospects and Challenges

BYDDY, while absent from the U.S. market, reaches more than 50 countries, concentrating efforts in Asia, South America, Australia, and selected European nations such as Hungary. Plans to unveil new models, including the $233,000 Yangwang U9 electric supercar, complement refreshed models like the e2 and Seagull electric hatchbacks.

Last year's global sales saw notable NEV success across multiple nations. With over 242,000 units exported, BYDDY anticipates China's NEV market surge in 2024, reinforcing its multi-brand strategy and global expansion objectives. Expansion ventures into Europe with a new Hungarian factory and successful deliveries also mark a pivotal moment in Central and Eastern European market development.

In South America, BYDDY aims to revitalize a former Ford manufacturing site in Brazil with a $620 million investment. Three Bahia factories will process locally sourced lithium and iron phosphate for vehicle production, enhancing regional presence. Future endeavors further include a prospective Mexican factory by next year's end.

Additionally, BYD's battery subsidiary, FinDreams, has partnered with Huaihai Holding Group to lead the sodium-ion battery supply for small electric cars. A Jiangsu production base near Xuzhou aims to revolutionize mass-market EV commercialization with cost-effective sodium-ion battery technology.

TSLA's recent quarterly sales shortfall has affected Elon Musk's reputation in China, the world's largest automotive market. Its market share has shrunk significantly due to unprecedented local competition and declining consumer confidence. Despite being known as a disruptor with advanced technology, TSLA struggles with its limited lineup of the Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV.

In contrast, competitors like BYDDY offer a wider range of vehicles with advanced features. From the affordable Seagull hatchback to the high-performance Yangwang U8 plug-in hybrid SUV, BYDDY presents a compelling array of options.

Globally, TSLA's delivery of 386,810 vehicles in the first quarter falls significantly short of expectations. "It’s been an epic disaster, not just in terms of the delivery number, but the strategy,” Wedbush Securities Inc. analyst Dan Ives said. “This is probably one of the most challenging periods for Musk and Tesla in the last four or five years.”

Furthermore, the company’s reliance on BYDDY battery cells puts it at a disadvantage, as BYDDY’s in-house battery and semiconductor manufacturing capabilities give it an edge. BYDDY’s revolutionary Blade Battery, with an impressive 600 km range on a single charge, highlights TSLA’s struggles to remain competitive.

Bottom Line

In 2008, BYDDY introduced its inaugural plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, the F3DM, coinciding with Berkshire Hathaway's $230 million investment. Since then, BYDDY has solidified its position as a dominant force in China's EV market, consistently ranking among the top monthly EV sellers in the country.

Having conquered the Chinese market, BYDDY now sets its sights on global expansion, with a presence in at least 58 overseas markets, including Germany, Japan, Australia, and Thailand. Manufacturing facilities in Thailand and Brazil are underway, and commitments are being made to build in Hungary and Indonesia.

BYDDY’s latest ultra-cheap car enhances its competitiveness against TSLA, which still struggles with affordability. Yet, BYDDY’s product portfolio spans all market segments, evidenced by the unveiling of a supercar aimed at the premium end of the EV market spectrum.

Ending 2023 with record-breaking sales, surpassing 3 million annual sales and retaining its global NEV sales champion status for the second consecutive year, BYDDY has solidified its position as China's best-selling car brand and manufacturer.

Analysts project robust growth for BYDDY in the fiscal year 2024, with its revenue and EPS expected to increase by 28.6% and 3.2% year-over-year, respectively, reaching $107.29 billion and $3.00.

In contrast, TSLA's revenue for fiscal year 2024 is forecasted to grow 9.9% year-over-year to $106.30 billion, while its EPS is anticipated to decline by 8.4% to $2.86. Moreover, Tesla missed the consensus revenue and EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, which is concerning.

Given this scenario, BYDDY could challenge TSLA’s dominance, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the current market landscape.

Insight Into Warren Buffett's Strategy: Unveiling His 40 Million General Motors (GM) Shares and the Investment Implications

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK), led by fabled investor Warren Buffett, also fondly known as The Oracle of Omaha, owns 22 million General Motors Company (GM) shares, equating to a 1.6% stake in the legacy U.S. automaker.

A fundamentally robust company such as GM deserves its spot in a conglomerate's portfolio with a reputation for acquiring parts or the entirety of businesses that possess enduring competitive advantages and are likely to be aided by favorable economics in the long run.

On the back of a strong performance in the fiscal 2023 second quarter, the Detroit-headquartered auto giant has raised its guidance for 2023. The company raised its net income expectations for the fiscal from a high end of $9.9 billion to a high end of $10.7 billion. Its automotive division’s free cash flow is also expected to come between $7 billion and $9 billion, up from $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion.

In addition, GM said it is increasing cost-cutting measures through next year and now plans to cut $3 billion in expenditures compared with previous guidance of $2 billion. The financial outperformance driven by the booming traditional automotive business powered by highly profitable trucks and SUVs has enabled the company to ramp up its presence in the electric vehicle (EV) segment.

Consequently, GM reiterated that it would double EV production in the year's second half to 100,000 units. In addition to the long-awaited introduction of an electric Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck and EV versions of Chevy’s Equinox crossover and Blazer compact sport-utility vehicle, the company says it will reach 400,000 cumulative units of EV production by early 2024.

GM also anticipates that its EV business will reach profitability by 2025, with an EV production capacity of 1 million units in North America and EV revenue of roughly $50 billion.

In addition, the company is making itself future-ready by fixing supply-chain issues with measures such as a $60 million investment round in Mitra Chem, a California startup working on cheaper EV batteries. Mitra Chem aims to develop low-cost lithium iron phosphate batteries that can hold more power than current versions. If it’s successful, its batteries could appear in GM’s EVs later this decade.

GM is also developing its Ultium EV platform, which will help reduce costs and improve profitability. In addition, GM is diversifying to more potentially lucrative businesses such as Cruise, its driverless cab service, and BrightDrop, which is focused on helping businesses meet consumer demand for last-mile services.

All the above factors make GM an apparently solid bet in the automotive sector and a far cry from cash-strapped and debt-burdened EV upstarts that are struggling to keep themselves afloat amid increased borrowing cost due to sustained interest-rate hikes and EV price war that has been waged by Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).

The Flip Side

When asked about when to sell stocks, Buffett famously replied, “To break off relationships with people that I like and people that have joined me because they think it’s a permanent home, to do that simply because somebody waves a big check at me would be like selling one of my children.”

So when the legend, whose favorite holding period is forever, decides to cut his stake in GM, a business his company has owned since 2012, by almost half, it can only mean that either BRK is chronically short of funds and has been finding numerous opportunities to put them to better use or the economic characteristics of the business change in a big way.

Since BRK is sitting on a mountain of cash worth at least $147 billion, we can definitely count out the former possibility. As far as the latter is concerned, carmakers in the U.S. and Europe are once again under siege.

However, this time around, the war is on climate change, the goal is rapid decarbonization and energy transition, the battleground is smart, connected, and electric mobility solutions, and the invaders are from the other side of the Pacific, beyond the Sea of Japan.

Recently, after BYD Company Limited (BYDDY) delivered its five millionth electric vehicle, its founder Wang Chuanfu declared the “time has come for Chinese brands.” And he has good reason to be optimistic. Chinese automakers have access to its vast domestic market, abundant supplies of resources, such as rare earths, which are critical for energy transition, and a government keen on seeing its domestic brands compete globally.

China’s dominance in rare earth and other clean energy metals is back in the limelight after the recent export restriction on germanium and gallium. With the trade war between the U.S. and China intensifying amid restrictions on exports of semiconductor chips and investments in other cutting-edge technology by the former, the latter is expected to keep upping the ante.

This could hurt the prospects of Western car manufacturers as they might be compelled to deal with increased input costs on top of exchange-rate headwinds and credit crunch due to the Federal Reserve ratcheting up the benchmark borrowing cost to 5.25%-5.50% from nearly 0% in the space of 16 months. 

While carbon border tax and other protective measures could provide temporary shelter for besieged Western automakers, the beneficiaries stand to lose more if the Chinese government cuts off their access to the massive domestic market on which the Chinese automakers could always fall back upon encountering turbulence overseas.

Moreover, with Vietnamese EV-maker VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) surpassing the market capitalization of heavyweights, such as Ford Motor Company (F) and GM, in the words of VW chief Thomas Schaefer, “The roof is on fire,” and according to former Aston Martin chief executive Andy Palmer, manufacturers in Europe and the US face a “real and present danger” from the East.

Bottomline

GM, first added by BRK in 2012, now constitutes merely 0.2% of the conglomerate’s portfolio of marketable securities, which in turn is just a component of its holdings, which are comprised mainly of wholly owned businesses.

Therefore, instead of being denominator blind and jumping on the Buffett bandwagon, it could be wise for investors to hold their horses and verify if Western automakers can hold their own against Oriental challengers before making an investment decision.