S&P 500 Vies For Record Close

Hello traders everywhere. As we head into the Friday close, the S&P 500 is making a run at its intra-day record high of 3,027.98 by trading just shy of it hitting 3,027.39, which happens to be above its record close of 3,025.86 which was set on July 26th of this year. The move higher was bolstered by strong quarterly earnings from Intel along with apparent progress on the U.S.-China trade front.

On a weekly level, the S&P 500 will post a weekly gain of +1.2% while the DOW will check in with a weekly gain of +.8% and not too be outdone the NASDAQ is looking to close out the week with an increase of +1.8%, leading the pack. For the NASDAQ, this will be four straight weeks of gains, while the S&P 500 will have three weeks, and the DOW will have its second winning week out of the last three.

Crude oil spiked this week, gaining +4.7% for week triggering a new green weekly Trade Triangle. The spike is due to news that OPEC will consider instituting even deeper production cuts at its December meeting and a drop in the oil rig count. The US oil and gas rig count fell sharply this week, according to Baker Hughes, with a decline of 25 rigs for the week. This week marks nine decreases out of the last ten weeks. The total oil and gas rig count now stand at 830, or 238 down from this time last year. Continue reading "S&P 500 Vies For Record Close"

Bitcoin Enters Long-Term Downtrend

Hello traders everywhere. Bitcoin has been due for a big move/breakout for a while now after being trapped in a trading range of $8,500 to $7,850 since the end of September. I fully expected the move to be to the downside as pressure was mounting from the 50-day and 200-day moving averages as they got closer and closer to crossing. Last week I had mentioned the coming "death cross," and while we haven't quite got that, we did get a new red monthly Trade Triangle at $7,714.70, signaling entry into the long-term downtrend.

Bitcoin is trading well below its 50-day and 200-day MA, the MACD is close to turning lower, and the MA's are closing in on that death cross. Right now, it appears that bitcoin has found support at the $7,430 level last hit in June of this year. If the 50-day can cross the 200-day look for a big move lower, the previous time the cross happened, Bitcoin rode the long-term downtrend to the $3,100 level.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

Continue reading "Bitcoin Enters Long-Term Downtrend"

Is Bitcoin The Place To Be In A Volatile Market

Many investors have called Bitcoin the digital version of gold. Obviously, we know it is in a lot of ways the digital version of cash, but the comparison to gold would potentially mean that if the stock market continues to be volatile or potentially crash, then Bitcoin would be an excellent place to be invested.

However, while someday Bitcoin may genuinely be the digital version of gold, it is not yet trading as such, I’ll explain in a moment, and therefore is not likely the best place to be parking your cash while the stock markets decide which direction it wants to go.

A simple chart of with the price of Gold and the price of Bitcoin overlaid on top of each other, clearly shows the two investments have not moved side-by-side over the past year, let alone the past month when the stock has been flipping from trading lower by 1% to trading higher by the same amount every few days. Since August 8th, 2018 Bitcoin and Gold have moved in the same direction at the same time just 51% of the time. Not really movements or assets that I would call correlated. Although, since May 8th, 2019, around the time we started seeing an uptick in volatility in the stock market, the two assets have been moving in sync 58%. Still not a sign of strong correlation, but better than before and a sign that someday, Bitcoin and Gold may move much closer together.

At this time, though there are just too many unknowns with the future of Bitcoin from both a legal standpoint and an adoption standpoint for it to trade hand-in-hand with Gold.

First and foremost, Bitcoin is illegal in a handful of countries around the world. China is the largest anti-crypto country, but the list also includes Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Continue reading "Is Bitcoin The Place To Be In A Volatile Market"