Tag: Bitcoin (BITSTAMPUSD)

Even with the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression the stock market continues to claw it's way higher. Is the worst behind us?

The Labor Department released its jobs report Friday morning, showing that a record 20.5 million jobs were lost In April and that the unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% from just 4.4%. However, those levels were lower than what was expected by most economists who were expecting a loss of 21.5 million jobs and an unemployment rate of 16%.

That marks the highest unemployment rate since the US Bureau of Labor Statistics started tracking the monthly data in 1948, and it's on par with levels of joblessness not seen since the Great Depression in the 1930s, for which the BLS has compiled annual estimates.

But the stock market seems to take solace in the fact that most of these layoffs are seen as temporary and that moving forward, most of the out of work people will resume their jobs as the economy reopens. With the recent market action in mind, is the worst behind us? Continue reading "Is The Worst Behind Us?" →

While the stock market is coming off one of it's best months in over 30 years, I can't get the idea of the "flattening the curve" out of mind. Yes, the S&P 500 gained +12.7% for April, its third-biggest monthly gain since World War II. The Dow gained +11.1%, its fourth-largest post-war monthly rally, and its best month in 33 years. Not to be outdone, the NASDAQ outpaced both the DOW and S&P 500 by posting a monthly gain of +15.5% for April, that's its biggest one-month gain since June 2000.

All of that sounds great, right? But even with these big monthly gains, we are still roughly -16% off the record high for the S&P 500, and if you take a look at the weekly charts, you'll see that the stock market is flattening the curve.

On a weekly level, all three indexes will post weekly losses, for the second week in a row. Talk about stumbling across the finish line. Clearly, all the gains were made in the early part of April before the earnings season ramped up. Continue reading "Flattening The Curve" →

Crude oil was the determining factor for market direction all week. It all started four days ago when crude oil traded into negative territory for the first time ever, trading down negative $37.63 a barrel, a decline of some 305%, or $55.90 a barrel. That drove the stock market down early in the week.

However, as crude oil tried to bounce back the rest of the week, it failed to wipe out its early week losses, but it wasn't enough to end the week in the green for crude oil or stocks for that matter. Continue reading "Crude Oil Dominates Market Action" →

The Coronavirus originated in and hit China first, so it should be expected that the Chinese economy could be used and will be used as a predictor for the U.S. economy moving forward. After all, we are talking about the two largest economies in the world.

Since the mid-1970s, the Chinese economy has had more than four decades of unbroken gains, an incredible run, increasing its domestic economy by roughly a hundredfold and transforming the global economy in the process.

But that winning streak came to a sudden and shocking end Friday. China reported a -6.8% year-over-year contraction in its economy for the first three months of 2020. That's the first quarterly decline in the gross domestic product since official record-keeping began in 1992 and likely the first since Mao Zedong died in 1976.

That should be quite a warning to the U.S., especially after U.S. retail sales Continue reading "Is The Chinese Economy A Predictor For The U.S.?" →

The question I keep asking myself is this, how long will this bear market rally last, and yes, I still think this is a bear market rally. There are zero reasons that the market was up for the week and especially for how much it was up. The DOW and S&P 500 both gained a whopping +12 on the week with the S&P 500 having its biggest one-week gain since 1974 when it gained +14%. The NASDAQ brought up the rear with a +10% gain, having it's best week since 2009. But why?

Two reasons really, the Fed and a flattening curve of the Coronavirus pandemic.

This week the Fed announced as a large number of programs, including loans geared towards small and medium-sized businesses, that will total up to $2.3 trillion. They also gave more details on its plans to buy investment-grade and junk bonds going forward.

As for the Coronavirus, the number of new daily confirmed cases has dropped globally. In the U.S. New York state has also reported a decline in its virus-related hospitalization rate, which led the markets and trader sentiment to believe that we are turning the corner, but are we? Continue reading "Can This Bear Market Rally Last?" →