First Losing Week Of 2021

The bull run that started in December had to take a breather after it extended into 2021 and this week was the week. Six of the seven markets that we track weekly will finish the week down, and the one market that is up may shock you.

We'll start with the three major indexes. The S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ will post their first weekly loss of the year and the first in four weeks, with losses standing at -1%, -.6%, and -1%, respectively.

The week's surprising winner is the US Dollar with a weekly gain of +.6%, marking its second straight week of gains, which was enough to trigger a new green weekly Trade Triangle, moving the US Dollar to a sidelines position. Continue reading "First Losing Week Of 2021"

Another Day Another Record High For Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BITSTAMPUSD) hit a new record high of $42,000 Friday afternoon, surpassing the previous all-time high of $40,123 that it reached on Thursday. Year-to-date gains are now over 40% making Bitcoin the strongest mover in 2021 by far. In typical bull market euphoria, Bitcoin's price has more than doubled in less than a month as new investors rush in, making sure they don't miss out. You know, FOMO, "fear of missing out," but is it too late?

Mutual fund titan Bill Miller told CNBC that "One of the things that's interesting about bitcoin is that it gets less risky the higher it goes, that's the opposite of what happens with most stocks."

He went on to say, "For those people who are waiting for the pullback, they got it in the first quarter. You could have bought bitcoin and $4,000 in the first quarter," Miller noted, referencing bitcoin's nearly 50% intraday crash in March 2020.

"But amid bitcoin's more than 300% rally in 2020 extended by an additional 40% gain already in 2021, Miller said, the price of these returns is the asset's volatility." Continue reading "Another Day Another Record High For Bitcoin"

Has Bitcoin Reached Its Peak?

We hope you enjoyed the brief holiday break… it seems Bitcoin has been busy while the markets have been resting! Bitcoin enthusiasts are adamant that the price rally has just started a parabolic move higher. From a technical standpoint, this current rally certainly appears to have gone parabolic. As any trader already understands, what goes up may eventually come crashing downward.

My research team and I believe failure at the current highs would represent a clear technical divergence pattern between price and the RSI indicator. Additionally, the current rally that started on December 20 consists of a $10,850 rally phase. The previous rally from October 20 to December 2 consisted of a $9,200 rally phase. We believe this current rally phase from December 11 could be a Wave 5 rally (almost equal to the Wave 3 rally range). If our researchers are correct, this final rally phase could come crashing downward after reaching these peak levels above $28,000.

This 4 Hour Bitcoin chart highlights the incredible price rally that has taken place over the past 16+ days – a rally of over $10,000. It also highlights two very clear price rally phases – creating an A-B-C price wave pattern.

Bitcoin

This Daily Bitcoin chart highlights the two, almost identical in size, which has created a price peak above $28,000. It also highlights the technical divergence between price and the RSI indicator in the lower pane. Continue reading "Has Bitcoin Reached Its Peak?"

Top Currencies VS. Gold In 2020: This "Rookie" Rocks!

The time has come to see if any top currency could rival gold, which established the new all-time-high this year in this traditional yearly post.

Seven currencies represent the fiat money: U.S. dollar (USD) and six components of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) placed by weight: Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). Bitcoin (BITSTAMPUSD) is also here to represent the hyped crypto-world.

Before we jump to the results of 2020, let us see below how you predicted the future back at the end of December 2019.

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The majority of you bet that the "rookie" Bitcoin would beat all others, including the regular favorite U.S. dollar in 2020. The latter was the second choice a year ago. The third pick was interesting as it was the British pound, which was not in the shortlist of your bets before, but it managed to rank #3 last year.

Let us look at the diagram below to find out the results. Continue reading "Top Currencies VS. Gold In 2020: This "Rookie" Rocks!"

Winning Week For Stocks And Bitcoin

Despite Friday's overall weakness, the three major indexes and Bitcoin were able to post weekly gains. The DOW gained +0.4% for the week while the S&P 500 advanced +1.3% for its fourth positive week out of the last five. The tech-heavy NASDAQ outperformed the other two indexes with a gain of +3.1% for the week.

On a daily level, the DOW fell 124.32 points or -0.4%, to 30,179.05. The S&P 500 dipped -0.4% or 13.07 points, to 3,709.41, and the NASDAQ lost -0.1% or 9.11 points, to 12,755.64. All three indexes touched new intra-day highs earlier in trading after closing at records in the previous session. Those records are 30,343.59, 3,726.70 and 12,809.60 respectively.

However, Bitcoin was the big winner for the week, gaining roughly +22% and setting an all-time high of 23,777 on the back of rising volume. Where did that increase in volume come from? The bitcoin "whales," of course. Often times, these large rallies are fueled by large investors with an ability to influence market trends. Sound familiar? Continue reading "Winning Week For Stocks And Bitcoin"