Risk Management Remains Job 1

I have been writing about risk management for quite a while now in the newsletter and want to be a little more explicit about it now here on the site.  We’ll use weekly charts to illustrate.

The nominal gold price has done nothing unusual, even after yesterday’s hard decline to the 35 week exponential moving average.  If it breaks through that level, then a bearish sign will be in place and the next stop would likely be the noted support zone in the low 1600′s. Continue reading "Risk Management Remains Job 1"

Another Stroll Though Time w/ the HUI-Gold Ratio

This is just a friendly reminder about how bloody important it is for the HUI-Gold Ratio (HGR) leading indicator (to the precious metals sector) to maintain its higher lows status.

Yesterday the goons apparently attacked ‘paper gold’ (according to sources who stand on guard for this stuff) after the HGR had become weak.  A pleasant thing happened however, as the HGR did not buy the take down in nominal gold.  2 Hour chart above. Continue reading "Another Stroll Though Time w/ the HUI-Gold Ratio"

Short & Intermediate View of the Market

The US indexes predictably rallied during the happy holiday week, with Friday putting a nice punctuation on the bullish proceedings.  In fact, I caught myself looking at the TECL, NUGT and individual gold miner positions in my trading account with a big dumb smile on my face.  Then I sold them all.  Sidetracking for a moment, I have found that I need to get back to more active trading so I am going to further fund this account and ruthlessly trade this market in a discreet account for pure trading.

Back on the post’s theme, the holiday volume was suspect to say the least.  I have a preferred macro theme for the intermediate term however, and it is bullish for an extended rally pending a confirmation of, or more likely a cleaning out of last week’s bullish enthusiasm. Continue reading "Short & Intermediate View of the Market"

HUI-Gold Ratio; 3 Views, 1 Conclusion

Here is a little snippet from NFTRH 213 that showed the important indicator of gold sector health, the HUI-Gold Ratio (HGR) from three different views; daily, weekly and monthly.  As you can see, daily must hold to keep the weekly intact, which in turn must hold to keep the monthly big picture of the secular bull (for the HUI, not this sad looking ratio) intact.

This is a difficult sector to own and indeed these charts say it is best to trade the stocks regardless of what one does or does not do with the bullion.  But the conclusion is that until the HGR breaks down to a lower low, the current situation is viewed as a buying opportunity.  On the other hand, HGR will serve as a handy risk management indicator if it should unexpectedly collapse.  From #213: Continue reading "HUI-Gold Ratio; 3 Views, 1 Conclusion"

An interview with Gary Tanashian of BiiWii.com

I recently interviewed Gary Tanashian, who writes the well-respected newsletter "Notes From the Rabbit Hole" and runs the blog biiwii.com.

Before getting involved in the financial markets, Gary ran a successful medical components business for 21 years. This experience gave him an understanding and appreciation for global macro-economics as it relates to individual markets and sectors, and along the way he developed an interest in technical analysis. He has real-world experience and a positive view on how commerce works.

I think you'll find Gary's approach very refreshing when you watch this Skype interview. In the interview, I was able to ask Gary some very pointed questions such as, "what is the worst trade you ever made?" I think you'll be surprised at how Gary feels about that trade today.

Gary also shares with us his views on oil and gold, both of which are in the news due to the recent military flare up in the Mid-East.

I hope you enjoy this interview with one of the most interesting market minds I have run across in recent times.

Adam Hewison
Co-Founder of MarketClub.com