Tag: biiwii.com

Ding, Ding, Ding?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Behold the beauty of this title: Investors Most Optimistic on Stocks in 3-1/2 Years in Poll

I was reviewing this morning’s news items the above headline stuck out like a sore thumb.

A little stroll down memory lane:

In May of 2012 NFTRH 188 used this graph among other indicators to get bullish on a risk vs. reward basis, stating “and then there is this beauty… the dumb money has lurched hard to ‘risk off’.

Smart/Dumb money confidence, May, 2012

I personally took some pretty good grief for writing Dumb Money Sold in May and Went Away over at Contrary Indicator Central – AKA the Seeking Alpha comments system – to the version of the article published at SA.  The most memorable of the responses by defensive bears was “Gary = Dumb Investor”.  I considered these comments to be of great value, because to be an effective contrary market player you must, almost by definition, appear dumb to most people a lot of the time. Continue reading "Ding, Ding, Ding?" →

CCI-Gold Ratio Will Tell the Story

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The story referenced in the title being whether or not global policy makers can cook up an inflationary up phase in the global economy.  I had used the term ‘i2k12′ early last year referring to the prospects for what might ultimately be an inflationary 2012.  Well, they came with the QE at year-end and now the theme shifts forward to the prospects for i2k13.

A subscriber forwarded to me an audio of Don Coxe talking about the changes coming out of Global Policy Central in “Basel Greenlights Banks Big Time” and it turned out to be a good starter for a post in which I would like to try to delineate some things.

You may have heard me belly ache in the past about the raving inflation bulls who lump gold and gold stocks in with the entire inflation trade?  Gold is copper is oil is hogs?

No, gold is counter cyclical in its relative strength to these other things.  Ironically, when gold is being out performed by silver and a whole host of commodities in an inflationary phase, it can rise (sometimes handsomely) in nominal terms but its producers will suffer. Continue reading "CCI-Gold Ratio Will Tell the Story" →

A Look at Sentiment & NFTRH 220 Wrap Up

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Sentiment (Data courtesy of Sentimentrader.com)

Well what do you know?  Most US stock sectors are becoming unhealthy from a sentiment perspective (above), as the commercial hedgers have gone quite bearish (below).  Continue reading "A Look at Sentiment & NFTRH 220 Wrap Up" →

Silver is in a Bear Flag

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Seeking Alpha has only 3 entries under the ‘Gold & Precious Metals’ section of its most recent ‘Macro View’ email notice:

  1. Silver: Another Decade of 500% Returns is Possible
  2. Silver: Are We Ready Yet for the Rally to $60+?
  3. Silver is Set to Explode in 2013

To be fair, the second article highlights lower near-term targets prior to a rally to $60+ and this brings me to my point; silver is in a bear flag.  I too am bullish on Ag and Au in 2013, but the charts are the charts and silver’s daily chart targets 27-28 first, which we have been noting in the newsletter despite a recent change to a bullish risk vs. reward stance on the precious metals complex. Continue reading "Silver is in a Bear Flag" →

What's Wrong With Gold?!?!

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Nothing. It’s what’s wrong with peoples’ expectations and perceptions that is the problem.

Once again I’ll quote NFTRH 208 from October 14 (that edition and a sample interim update can be reviewed here: Samples), not to be an ‘I told you so’ wise guy (I didn’t definitively tell anybody anything), but rather to highlight how important sentiment is to this sector and also I suppose to too the horn a little with respect to good risk management.

“Sentiment is over bullish in the precious metals. Public opinion is over bullish, Hulbert’s HGNSI is over bullish and the CoT data show that the little and big speculators are over bullish. This should be cleared out before we renew our bullish enthusiasm on a risk vs. reward basis. Broad stock sentiment is in a better state than in the precious metals. It is mostly neutral.”

The over bullish sentiment in the precious metals has been ground down to a current state of numbness at best, and full out despair at worst. Actually, it is the reverse; a state of despair is best for a contrarian opportunist.

I have received hate mail over the years for the way I poke at the gold “community” even as I am and have been a gold bull. That is because psychologically, this “community” fancies itself as the battlers of evil, the doers of good; and do you know what? Evil wins some pretty big battles along the way. I want neither NFTRH’s subscriber nor myself fighting that battle.

Rather, a calm perspective is required ALL the time; when a market is surging with bullish enthusiasm and when it is in the grips of despair. It is important to look around the next corner and be prepared. It’s what they taught me in Boy Scouts and it has never failed me.

Putting lectures aside, let’s catch up on gold as measured in a few currencies after a look at the nominal weekly chart. Continue reading "What's Wrong With Gold?!?!" →